As a consequence, any sea ice coverage ensemble forecast that uses the 2007 temperature and specific humidity fields as part of the input surface BCs will approximately have the 2007
sea ice minimum as the lower end estimate of the ensemble.
Not exact matches
«The autumn volume of the
sea ice (
as opposed to the extent) is still close to its
minimum record,» Robert Meisner, spokesman for European Space Agency, said yesterday.
AWI researchers observed a considerable decrease in the thickness of the
sea ice as early
as the late summer of 2015, even though the overall
ice covered area of the September
minimum ultimately exceeded the record low of 2012 by approximately one million square kilometres.
But,
as scientists including National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Administrator Jane Lubchenco said today at a press conference at the American Geophysical Union's fall meeting, record - setting melting happened anyway: record snow melt, record
sea ice minimum, melting even at the top of the Greenland
ice sheet (in what was once called the «dry snow zone»), and widespread warming of permafrost.
Scientists consider Arctic
sea ice as a sensitive climate indicator and track this
minimum extent every year to see if any trends emerge.
As the Arctic
sea -
ice reaches its summer
minimum extent, it is clear that it has yet again shrunk to one of the smallest areas in recent decades, 10 % above the record
minimum set last year.
But «while the Arctic maximum is not
as important
as the seasonal
minimum, the long - term decline is a clear indicator of climate change,» Walt Meier, a
sea ice researcher at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, said in a statement.
The record - low winter maximum doesn't necessarily herald a record low end - of - summer
minimum come September,
as summer weather patterns have a large effect on
sea ice area.
Satellites show the extent of Arctic
sea ice on Sept. 16, 2012
as compared to the average
minimum from the past 30 years (yellow line).
The record low maximum doesn't necessarily guarantee a record - low summer
sea ice minimum, though,
as ice melt depends heavily on Arctic weather patterns through the spring and summer months.
On September 10, Arctic
sea ice reached its annual minimum extent at 1.60 million square miles, statistically tying 2007 as the second smallest extent in the 1979 — 2016 satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Cent
ice reached its annual
minimum extent at 1.60 million square miles, statistically tying 2007
as the second smallest extent in the 1979 — 2016 satellite record, according to the National Snow and
Ice Data Cent
Ice Data Center.
This marks the beginning of the ritual of the annual
sea ice watch that includes predictions of the extent and rank of this year's
sea ice minimum,
as well
as discussion about the timing of its eventual demise.
We find that the available observations are sufficient to virtually exclude internal variability and self - acceleration
as an explanation for the observed long - term trend, clustering, and magnitude of recent
sea -
ice minima.
As a result, the
sea ice volume at its annual
minimum has declined 75 % over the past three decades.
The consolidated database shows that there is no precedent
as far back
as 1850 for the 21st century's
minimum ice extent of
sea ice on the pan-Arctic scale....
I view the question of whether the
minimum sea ice extent sets a new record this year
as secondary.
Given that this summer's
minimum has fallen below last year's and will settle in at the 2nd or 3rd lowest on record, last summer's
minimum now appears more
as a bump in the road toward continuing lower Arctic
sea ice coverage.
Jin (IARC), 5.06, Modeling (same
as June) A coupled
ice - ocean model forecast of the September
sea ice extent
minimum.
Scientists use the summer
minimum as one measure of the extent of Arctic
sea ice for that year.
Now it's official:
as of September 16, according to the National Snow and
Ice Data Center, the sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean reached a record low minimum exte
Ice Data Center, the
sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean reached a record low minimum exte
ice covering the Arctic Ocean reached a record low
minimum extent.
NASA satellite data reveals how this year's
minimum sea ice extent, reached on Sept. 9
as depicted here, declined to a level far smaller than the 30 - year average (in yellow) and opened up Northwest Passage shipping lanes (in red).
Carrington's self - serving and unnecessary lyricism aside —
as well
as the poetic license often taken by the likes of Vidal and Monbiot — this year's
sea -
ice minimum represents the second lowest on record.
Liu, J., M. Song, R. Horton, and Y. Hu, 2015: Revisiting the potential of melt pond fraction
as a predictor for the seasonal Arctic
sea ice extent
minimum.
Ethon revs up the transport module
As you may recall, Eli has a bet with Stoat on 2008 setting a new record for
minimum Arctic
sea ice.
Polar bear numbers,
as confirmed by the latest estimates in the 2015 IUCN Red List assessment, are higher now than they have been since the 1960s, despite almost 10 years of summer
sea ice minimums below 5.0 mk2.
In the summer of 2012, Arctic
sea ice has broken the previous record for
minimum extent (set in 2007), fallen below 4 million square kilometers, and,
as of September 17, dropped below 3.5 million square kilometers in extent.
«the available observations are sufficient to virtually exclude internal variability and self - acceleration
as an explanation for the observed long - term trend, clustering, and magnitude of recent
sea -
ice minima.
She says that likely why this year's
sea -
ice minimum is about the same
as 2007's, even though that year's summer was much warmer than this year's.
In the golden days of «run - away» melting, leading up to the «catastrophic» 2007 Arctic
sea -
ice minimum, this was often presented
as the «canary in the coal - mine» for global warming and climate change.
''... worked with two sediment cores they extracted from the seabed of the eastern Norwegian
Sea, developing a 1000 - year proxy temperature record «based on measurements of δ18O in Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, a planktonic foraminifer that calcifies at relatively shallow depths within the Atlantic waters of the eastern Norwegian
Sea during late summer,» which they compared with the temporal histories of various proxies of concomitant solar activity... This work revealed,
as the seven scientists describe it, that «the lowest isotope values (highest temperatures) of the last millennium are seen ~ 1100 - 1300 A.D., during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and again after ~ 1950 A.D.» In between these two warm intervals, of course, were the colder temperatures of the Little
Ice Age, when oscillatory thermal
minima occurred at the times of the Dalton, Maunder, Sporer and Wolf solar
minima, such that the δ18O proxy record of near - surface water temperature was found to be «robustly and near - synchronously correlated with various proxies of solar variability spanning the last millennium,» with decade - to century - scale temperature variability of 1 to 2 °C magnitude.»
The most prominent
sea ice minimum occurred during the LIG (MIS 5e / Eemian)
as clearly reflected in the semi-quantitative PIP25 records of Core PS2138 - 2.
We relate this
sea ice minimum to the strong inflow of warm Atlantic Water
as indicated by the contemporaneous prominent maxima in open - water phytoplankton biomarker concentrations (i.e., brassicasterol and HBI - III), total numbers of dinoflagellate cysts and — especially — the dinoflagellate species O. centrocarpum (Fig. 7d)
as well
as a prominent maximum in Atlantic - Water species of benthic foraminifers44.
During the interstadials and coinciding with maxima in insolation, on the other hand,
sea ice was reduced and surface - water productivity increased
as indicated by
minima in PIP25 and peak values in brassicasterol and HBI - III, respectively (Fig. 7a, c).
2014 Arctic
sea ice extent at summer
minimum was larger than 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008 and 2007 — and about the same
as 2013.
As a result, the Arctic
sea -
ice cover has continued to shrink; this September, the
minimum summer
sea -
ice extent was more than 770,000 sq. mi.
As with 2005, the
sea ice extent
minimum remains below the 2 - standard deviation mark based on the years 1979 — 2000.
If arctic
sea ice was at its minimum in the 1940s as it is now, and it was at its maximum in the 1970s, why are they scaring us with «Arctic Sea Ice: Death Spiral Continues» in the following bl
sea ice was at its minimum in the 1940s as it is now, and it was at its maximum in the 1970s, why are they scaring us with «Arctic Sea Ice: Death Spiral Continues» in the following bl
ice was at its
minimum in the 1940s
as it is now, and it was at its maximum in the 1970s, why are they scaring us with «Arctic
Sea Ice: Death Spiral Continues» in the following bl
Sea Ice: Death Spiral Continues» in the following bl
Ice: Death Spiral Continues» in the following blog?
Sea ice rebounded in 2013 compared to 2012 but then decreased in 2014 and this year
as well, although is still above the 2012
minimum.
Both 2007 and 2008 qualify
as major outliers compared to previous summer
minimum sea ice extents over the last three decades.
In September 2008, the
sea ice area
minimum was less than 5 % larger than the September 2007
sea ice area
minimum as derived from AMSR - E 89 GHz data.
Bosse (Citizen Scientist / Public), 4.1 (± 0.43), Statistical (Same
as June) Just
as in the two years before I calculate the value for the September -
minimum of the arctic
sea ice extent of the year n (NSIDC monthly mean for September) from the Ocean Heat Content (0... 700m depth) northward 65 ° N during JJAS of the year n - 1.
NRL - atm - ocn -
ice, 4.8 (4.4 - 5.3), Modeling (fully coupled)(Same
as June) The projected Arctic
minimum sea ice extent from the Navy's global coupled atmosphere - ocean -
ice modeling system based on May 2016 initial
ice conditions is 4.8 km2.
Also, note the huge changes in Central Arctic
sea ice minima which occurred at the same time
as this temperature deviation.
Wang and Collow, 4.63 ± 0.25, Modeling (fully coupled)(Same
as June) The contribution here includes (1) Monthly September
sea ice extent, (2) Monthly September
sea ice extent error estimate, and (3) Date of September
minimum.
Jin (IARC), 4.62, Modeling (
ice - ocean)(Same
as June) A coupled
ice - ocean model (POP - CICE) forecast of the September
sea ice extent
minimum.
Just
as the 2016 El Nino was warmer than the 1998, we see increasing maxima in temperatures and
minima in Arctic
Sea Ice.
Behavior of the
sea ice over the past winter and the spring and the large positive temperature anomalies in the Arctic (
as high
as 20 degrees C over large regions in the past winter) suggest that an extent near that of the 2012
minimum may occur again if there is large export of
sea ice out to the Atlantic Ocean via the Fram Strait.
If we get the same increase in
minimum sea ice extent during this solar
minimum as we got during and after the last solar
minimum it is going to be difficult to claim that it is just a coincidence, the AMO is likely correlated to solar radiation.
This week probably saw the Arctic Ocean's
sea ice reach its
minimum extent for the year and begin to expand again,
as it usually does in mid-September.
As I said several times previously, if the
sea ice minimum were to decline faster than recently observed, then I would rethink my position and conclude that warming is occurring faster than expected.