Since 2008 the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) organized by the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) has invited predictions of the September Arctic
sea ice minimum extent, which are contributed from the Arctic research community.
Arctic Sea Ice Summertime Minimum Is Fourth Lowest on Record According to a NASA analysis of satellite data, the 2015 Arctic
sea ice minimum extent is the fourth lowest on record since observations from space began.
It's unclear whether this year's strong El Niño event, which is a naturally occurring phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years where the surface water of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warms, has had any impact on the Arctic
sea ice minimum extent.
In the 1980's and 199o's,
sea ice minimum extent (in September) averaged about 6.5 - 7.5 M sq km.
Changes in the timing of
the sea ice minimum extent are especially important because more of the sun's energy reaches Earth's surface during the Arctic summer than during the Arctic winter.
With 19 total responses, 14 provided a value for the arctic
sea ice minimum extent for September 2008; 6 provided regional outlooks.
Even if the 2008 summer
sea ice minimum extent appeared to be slightly above the 2007 all - time record minimum, according to passive radiometers, it does not seem like the ice mass budget is significantly different in 2008 compared with 2007.
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC, Sept. 20 report), the annual
sea ice minimum extent was reached on Sept. 13, 2013.
Please note that this is not an announcement of
the sea ice minimum extent for 2012.
Current ice extent is well below levels at the same point in 2012, which went on to set the current record for the lowest
sea ice minimum extent:
According to a NASA analysis of satellite data, the 2015 Arctic
sea ice minimum extent is the fourth lowest on record since observations from space began.
It's unclear whether this year's strong El Niño event, which is a naturally occurring phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years where the surface water of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean warms, has had any impact on the Arctic
sea ice minimum extent.
Not exact matches
«The autumn volume of the
sea ice (as opposed to the
extent) is still close to its
minimum record,» Robert Meisner, spokesman for European Space Agency, said yesterday.
Together, the meager maximum
extent and thin
ice could spell trouble for this year's
minimum sea ice extent, expected during September.
In the last three years, the
sea ice's
extent - the ocean area in which a defined
minimum of
sea ice can be found — was at its lowest in the 30 - year satellite record.
Scientists consider Arctic
sea ice as a sensitive climate indicator and track this
minimum extent every year to see if any trends emerge.
An image of an area of the Arctic
sea ice pack well north of Alaska, captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite on Sept. 13, 2013, the day before the National Snow and Ice Data Center estimated Arctic sea ice to have reached its minimum extent for the ye
ice pack well north of Alaska, captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite on Sept. 13, 2013, the day before the National Snow and
Ice Data Center estimated Arctic sea ice to have reached its minimum extent for the ye
Ice Data Center estimated Arctic
sea ice to have reached its minimum extent for the ye
ice to have reached its
minimum extent for the year.
Each year, the Arctic
sea ice reaches its
minimum extent in September.
The summer
minimum Arctic
sea ice extent has decreased by 40 percent during the same time period.
As the Arctic
sea -
ice reaches its summer
minimum extent, it is clear that it has yet again shrunk to one of the smallest areas in recent decades, 10 % above the record
minimum set last year.
This image shows a visualization of Arctic
sea ice cover on Sept. 12, 2013, with a yellow line showing the 30 - year average
minimum extent.
In Antarctica, this year's record low annual
sea ice minimum of 815,000 square miles (2.11 million square kilometers) was 71,000 square miles (184,000 square kilometers) below the previous lowest
minimum extent in the satellite record, which occurred in 1997.
The 2007
minimum occurred on September 18 of that year, when Arctic
sea ice extent stood at 4.15 million square kilometers (1.60 million square miles).
To think that now the Antarctic
sea ice extent is actually reaching a record
minimum, that's definitely of interest.»
This year's record low
sea ice maximum
extent might not necessarily lead to a new record low summertime
minimum extent, since weather has a great impact on the melt season's outcome, Meier said.
Satellites show the
extent of Arctic
sea ice on Sept. 16, 2012 as compared to the average
minimum from the past 30 years (yellow line).
«Arctic
sea ice once again shows considerable melting: With a
minimum extent of ca. 4.7 million square kilometres, Arctic
sea ice continues to retreat.»
The exact date and value of the
minimum sea ice extent in 2017 can only be determined in the coming weeks, after a significant increase.
Though slightly larger than last year, the
minimum sea ice extent 2017 is average for the past ten years and far below the numbers from 1979 to 2006.
Extent of Arctic sea ice in September 2016 versus the 1981 - 2010 average minimum extent (gold
Extent of Arctic
sea ice in September 2016 versus the 1981 - 2010 average
minimum extent (gold
extent (gold line).
The area of the Arctic Ocean covered by
sea ice in September, when the annual
minimum occurs, was the sixth lowest
extent in the satellite record, going back to 1979.
Least unexpected observations: (Joint winners) 2008 near - record
minima in Arctic
sea ice extent, last decade of record warmth, long term increases in ocean heat content, record increases in CO2 emissions.
Meanwhile, in Antarctica,
sea ice has already reached its
minimum extent following the summer melt season.
Since that time, winter
sea ice extent has dropped 3.2 percent per decade, while the summer
minimum has seen an even steeper drop of 13.7 percent per decade.
The
minimum Arctic
sea ice has declined by a little over half since its maximum
extent of the past three decades.
On September 10, Arctic
sea ice reached its annual minimum extent at 1.60 million square miles, statistically tying 2007 as the second smallest extent in the 1979 — 2016 satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Cent
ice reached its annual
minimum extent at 1.60 million square miles, statistically tying 2007 as the second smallest
extent in the 1979 — 2016 satellite record, according to the National Snow and
Ice Data Cent
Ice Data Center.
The data presented here indicate that the area of undersaturation presently extends to approximately 20 % of the Canadian Basin in the late summer months, when
sea ice is near its
minimum extent.
Although there is still definitely a declining trend in Arctic
sea ice (2009 and 2008 were still the second and third lowest
sea ice extents, after 2007) there was a lot of hype surrounding the 2007
minimum even though that was partly just natural variability in the Arctic climate.
After that, the
sea ice will begin its course towards its annual
minimum of both
extent and volume in mid-September.
I have often used quadratic fits of annual
minimum Arctic
sea ice extent to forecast the future value.
This marks the beginning of the ritual of the annual
sea ice watch that includes predictions of the
extent and rank of this year's
sea ice minimum, as well as discussion about the timing of its eventual demise.
Just to return to one of the suggested topics, Arctic
sea ice extent appears to have passed its
minimum for this year with a value higher than has recently been the case.
Least unexpected observations: (Joint winners) 2006 near - record
minima in Arctic
sea ice extent, near - record maxima in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resumed increase in ocean heat content, record increases in CO2 emissions
This means the expectation is that the
minimum Arctic
Sea Ice extent this year will be below that of 2007.
For 2007, the Arctic
sea ice extent minimum was 25 % below the previous
minimum, whereas the
sea ice extent maximum for the Antarctic was roughly 1 % above the previous year.
For the latest forecasts of this summer's Arctic
ice retreat, have a look at Sea Ice Outlook 2009, an effort to collate and compare a variety of studies aiming to project the minimum ice extent each summ
ice retreat, have a look at
Sea Ice Outlook 2009, an effort to collate and compare a variety of studies aiming to project the minimum ice extent each summ
Ice Outlook 2009, an effort to collate and compare a variety of studies aiming to project the
minimum ice extent each summ
ice extent each summer.
Earlier this year, I was among the first to bet that
sea ice extent at
minimum this year would be greater than last year; I'll now predict that
sea ice extent next year at
minimum will be greater than this year.
If you plot the average Arctic
Sea Ice extent for 20 years, the you should also plot the monthly maximum and
minimum values on the same figure so that we can get some perspective on where the 2007 and 2008 data falls in the context of annual variability, or examine for trends.
My bet is that this year's Arctic
Sea ice extent ice will not fall below last year's
minimum (4.28 or 2.77), because last year's
minimum was very low in comparison to all other years of record (1979 - current).
So, I was curious about your recent paper and whether there was any discussion of changes in the THC poleward of the GIS shelf vs the data from the RAPID program line located at 26.5 N. With the decline in
minimum extent and volume of
sea -
ice, one might expect to see more THC sinking into the Arctic Ocean, with consequences for both climate and weather.