Polar bear numbers, as confirmed by the latest estimates in the 2015 IUCN Red List assessment, are higher now than they have been since the 1960s, despite almost 10 years of summer
sea ice minimums below 5.0 mk2.
Geoff Beacon # 19: To answer your question, if you mean you expect the NSIDC to announce a September arctic
sea ice minimum below, say 1M sq km, by 2015, I would bet against, but not a huge amount, because of uncertainty.
Geoff Beacon # 19: To answer your question, if you mean you expect the NSIDC to announce a September arctic
sea ice minimum below, say 1M sq km, by 2015, I would bet against, but not a huge amount, because of uncertainty.
Not exact matches
In Antarctica, this year's record low annual
sea ice minimum of 815,000 square miles (2.11 million square kilometers) was 71,000 square miles (184,000 square kilometers)
below the previous lowest
minimum extent in the satellite record, which occurred in 1997.
Though slightly larger than last year, the
minimum sea ice extent 2017 is average for the past ten years and far
below the numbers from 1979 to 2006.
Current
ice extent is well
below levels at the same point in 2012, which went on to set the current record for the lowest
sea ice minimum extent:
This means the expectation is that the
minimum Arctic
Sea Ice extent this year will be
below that of 2007.
For 2007, the Arctic
sea ice extent
minimum was 25 %
below the previous
minimum, whereas the
sea ice extent maximum for the Antarctic was roughly 1 % above the previous year.
My bet is that this year's Arctic
Sea ice extent
ice will not fall
below last year's
minimum (4.28 or 2.77), because last year's
minimum was very low in comparison to all other years of record (1979 - current).
The graph
below (high - resolution copy) shows the range of the forecasts for early September, the point when the
sea ice typically reaches its
minimum extent, compared to recent years and the average over the period of precise satellite measurement.
Given that this summer's
minimum has fallen
below last year's and will settle in at the 2nd or 3rd lowest on record, last summer's
minimum now appears more as a bump in the road toward continuing lower Arctic
sea ice coverage.
The US National Snow and
Ice Data Center, which monitors Arctic ice, said last week: «It is unlikely that Arctic sea ice extent this September will fall below the record minimum set in 2012.&raq
Ice Data Center, which monitors Arctic
ice, said last week: «It is unlikely that Arctic sea ice extent this September will fall below the record minimum set in 2012.&raq
ice, said last week: «It is unlikely that Arctic
sea ice extent this September will fall below the record minimum set in 2012.&raq
ice extent this September will fall
below the record
minimum set in 2012.»
In the summer of 2012, Arctic
sea ice has broken the previous record for
minimum extent (set in 2007), fallen
below 4 million square kilometers, and, as of September 17, dropped
below 3.5 million square kilometers in extent.
Total
sea ice extent for the previous three months was near or
below the level of 2007, the year with the lowest
minimum summer
ice extent during the satellite record.
It is also important to note that although recent
sea ice values have not reached the extreme
minimum of 2007, the
sea ice minimum has remained well
below the long - term «norm» (Figure 1).
It is important to note that the
sea ice minimum has remained well
below the long - term average every year since 2007 (Figure 1).
It is important to note that the
sea ice minimum has remained well
below the long - term average every year since 2007.
53 % of the Outlook contributions suggest the September
minimum will remain
below 5 million square kilometers, representing a continued trend of declining
sea ice extent.
Reasoning for a decrease in
sea ice extent from recent years, perhaps approaching new record - low
minimum, focuses on the
below - normal
sea ice thickness overall, the thinning of
sea ice in coastal
seas, rotting of old multi-year
sea ice, warm temperatures in April and May 2010, and the rapid loss of
sea ice area seen during May.
Reasoning for a new record
minimum focuses on the
below - normal
ice thickness overall, the thinning of
sea ice in coastal
seas, rotting of old multi-year
sea ice, and the rapid loss of
sea ice area seen during May.
Sea ice extent for September 2007 was 4.3 million square kilometers — a reduction of more than 40 % from the 1980s and a rapid decline to more than 20 %
below the previous record
minimum.
Below are several projection ensembles for future
minimum summer
sea ice extent (Fig. 7).
As with 2005, the
sea ice extent
minimum remains
below the 2 - standard deviation mark based on the years 1979 — 2000.
«Arctic
minimum sea ice extent at the end of summer was tied with 2007 for the second - lowest amount during the satellite record starting in 1979, at 33 percent
below the long - term average.»
Out of 25 scenarios for
minimum sea ice extent in 2008, 24 of them came in
below 2007.
At the same time, they point towards
below normal
ice extent in the Barents / Kara
Sea, also compared to the record
minimum in 2007, which they see coupled to oceanic processes and promoting further warming of surface waters in the region.
The current
sea ice extent is
below 4 M sq km, and apparently a
minimum has not yet been reached, although a
minimum around 3.5 M sq km seems likely.
At
minimum sea ice extents near the equinox, the sun is
below the horizon for 12 hours each day, and rises only a little bit (less than 10 degrees) above the horizon for a few minutes each day at solar local noon.
The paper questioned whether climate change was dangerous for polar bears and whether the region was warming at all, even as NASA reported that the 2007
minimum sea ice levels were at an all - time low, falling to nearly 40 percent
below the 1979 - 2000 average.
The 2012
minimum sea ice extent was 49 %
below the 1979 to 2000 average and 18 %
below the previous record from 2007.
As it is, the yearly
sea -
ice minimum in the Arctic occurs near the Equinox, when the sun slips
below the horizon at the North Pole.
A
minimum extent approaching the value of 2007 and
below - normal extent for the previous three summers suggest that summer
ice extent continues to be governed by the loss of multiyear
sea ice beginning in the 1990s.
Two contributors forecast a September
minimum below that of 2007 at 4.0 million square kilometers and 3 contributors suggest a return to the long term downward linear trend for September
sea ice loss (5.5 to 5.6 million square kilometers).
To put this estimate in context, this is
below the 2009
minimum of 5.4 million square kilometers and represents a continuation of the long - term loss of summer arctic
sea ice.