The sea ice minimums in 2007 and 2012 have triggered numerous predictions of an ice free Arctic.
With the record low value of
sea ice minimum in 2007 the ratio jumped to about 0.7.
The spread of Outlook contributions suggests about a 29 % chance of reaching a new September
sea ice minimum in 2010 and only an 18 % chance of an extent greater than the 2009 minimum (or a return to the long - term trend for summer sea ice loss).
Although there is general consensus in the September Outlook for either persistent conditions or a slight increase over the 2008 sea ice extent, Outlook contributions which provide probabilistic assessments indicate about a 20 % chance of reaching a new September
sea ice minimum in 2009.
Not exact matches
After a decade with nine of the lowest arctic
sea -
ice minima on record, including the historically low
minimum in 2012, we synthesize recent developments
in the study of ecological responses to
sea -
ice decline.
AWI researchers observed a considerable decrease
in the thickness of the
sea ice as early as the late summer of 2015, even though the overall
ice covered area of the September
minimum ultimately exceeded the record low of 2012 by approximately one million square kilometres.
But, as scientists including National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Administrator Jane Lubchenco said today at a press conference at the American Geophysical Union's fall meeting, record - setting melting happened anyway: record snow melt, record
sea ice minimum, melting even at the top of the Greenland
ice sheet (
in what was once called the «dry snow zone»), and widespread warming of permafrost.
In the last three years, the sea ice's extent - the ocean area in which a defined minimum of sea ice can be found — was at its lowest in the 30 - year satellite recor
In the last three years, the
sea ice's extent - the ocean area
in which a defined minimum of sea ice can be found — was at its lowest in the 30 - year satellite recor
in which a defined
minimum of
sea ice can be found — was at its lowest
in the 30 - year satellite recor
in the 30 - year satellite record.
Each year, the Arctic
sea ice reaches its
minimum extent
in September.
As the Arctic
sea -
ice reaches its summer
minimum extent, it is clear that it has yet again shrunk to one of the smallest areas
in recent decades, 10 % above the record
minimum set last year.
In Antarctica, this year's record low annual sea ice minimum of 815,000 square miles (2.11 million square kilometers) was 71,000 square miles (184,000 square kilometers) below the previous lowest minimum extent in the satellite record, which occurred in 199
In Antarctica, this year's record low annual
sea ice minimum of 815,000 square miles (2.11 million square kilometers) was 71,000 square miles (184,000 square kilometers) below the previous lowest
minimum extent
in the satellite record, which occurred in 199
in the satellite record, which occurred
in 199
in 1997.
The ring of
sea ice around the Antarctic continent behaves
in a similar manner, with the calendar flipped: it usually reaches its maximum
in September and its
minimum in February.
The
sea ice fringing Antarctica also set a record low for its annual summer
minimum (with the seasons opposite
in the Southern Hemisphere), though this was
in sharp contrast to the record highs racked up
in recent years.
But «while the Arctic maximum is not as important as the seasonal
minimum, the long - term decline is a clear indicator of climate change,» Walt Meier, a
sea ice researcher at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, said
in a statement.
The exact date and value of the
minimum sea ice extent
in 2017 can only be determined
in the coming weeks, after a significant increase.
Extent of Arctic
sea ice in September 2016 versus the 1981 - 2010 average
minimum extent (gold line).
The area of the Arctic Ocean covered by
sea ice in September, when the annual
minimum occurs, was the sixth lowest extent
in the satellite record, going back to 1979.
In the Antarctic, where the summer season just wrapped up, rapid
ice melt led to the lowest
sea ice minimum ever recorded for the area.
The 2007
sea ice minimum: impacts on the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere
in late autumn and early winter.
Sea ice changes this year were again very dramatic, with the Arctic September
minimum destroying the previous records
in all the data products.
Least unexpected observations: (Joint winners) 2008 near - record
minima in Arctic
sea ice extent, last decade of record warmth, long term increases
in ocean heat content, record increases
in CO2 emissions.
Meanwhile,
in Antarctica,
sea ice has already reached its
minimum extent following the summer melt season.
Antarctic
sea ice reached its summer
minimum at the end of February, clocking
in at 2.18 m sq km.
On September 10, Arctic
sea ice reached its annual minimum extent at 1.60 million square miles, statistically tying 2007 as the second smallest extent in the 1979 — 2016 satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Cent
ice reached its annual
minimum extent at 1.60 million square miles, statistically tying 2007 as the second smallest extent
in the 1979 — 2016 satellite record, according to the National Snow and
Ice Data Cent
Ice Data Center.
Current
ice extent is well below levels at the same point
in 2012, which went on to set the current record for the lowest
sea ice minimum extent:
The data presented here indicate that the area of undersaturation presently extends to approximately 20 % of the Canadian Basin
in the late summer months, when
sea ice is near its
minimum extent.
The 2016 Arctic
sea ice minimum was 290,000 square miles larger than the record small
minimum that occurred
in 2012.
Artic
sea ice minimum has been retreating over the past thirty years (shown
in yellow).
1 (Early
Sea Ice), 2009 Suite of 8 digital pigment photographic prints
in embossed hand - made portfolio box 22 x 17» Courtesy of the artist Value: $ 6,500 /
Minimum bid: $ 2,000
In contrast, the much more expansive
ice volume maxima (equivalently,
sea level
minima) during a glacial maximum is more defined.
Although there is still definitely a declining trend
in Arctic
sea ice (2009 and 2008 were still the second and third lowest
sea ice extents, after 2007) there was a lot of hype surrounding the 2007
minimum even though that was partly just natural variability
in the Arctic climate.
After that, the
sea ice will begin its course towards its annual
minimum of both extent and volume
in mid-September.
Prediction methods for the
sea ice minima range from ad - hoc guesses to model predictions, from statistical analyses to water - cooler speculation
in the blogosphere.
Least unexpected observations: (Joint winners) 2006 near - record
minima in Arctic
sea ice extent, near - record maxima
in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resumed increase
in ocean heat content, record increases
in CO2 emissions
Topics of potential interest: The successful OCO - 2 launch, continuing likelihood of an El Niño event this fall, predictions of the September Arctic
sea ice minimum, Antarctic
sea ice excursions, stochastic elements
in climate models etc..
If you plot the average Arctic
Sea Ice extent for 20 years, the you should also plot the monthly maximum and
minimum values on the same figure so that we can get some perspective on where the 2007 and 2008 data falls
in the context of annual variability, or examine for trends.
Nevertheless,
in my opinion there are some strong signs for another very low NH
sea ice minimum.
My bet is that this year's Arctic
Sea ice extent
ice will not fall below last year's
minimum (4.28 or 2.77), because last year's
minimum was very low
in comparison to all other years of record (1979 - current).
So, I was curious about your recent paper and whether there was any discussion of changes
in the THC poleward of the GIS shelf vs the data from the RAPID program line located at 26.5 N. With the decline
in minimum extent and volume of
sea -
ice, one might expect to see more THC sinking into the Arctic Ocean, with consequences for both climate and weather.
-- The
Minimum Sea Ice Extent in the arctic was lower in 1990 than in 2006 — ie the arctic ice summer (September) minimum has been more - or-less stable for 16
Minimum Sea Ice Extent in the arctic was lower in 1990 than in 2006 — ie the arctic ice summer (September) minimum has been more - or-less stable for 16 yea
Ice Extent
in the arctic was lower
in 1990 than
in 2006 — ie the arctic
ice summer (September) minimum has been more - or-less stable for 16 yea
ice summer (September)
minimum has been more - or-less stable for 16
minimum has been more - or-less stable for 16 years.
Given that this summer's
minimum has fallen below last year's and will settle
in at the 2nd or 3rd lowest on record, last summer's
minimum now appears more as a bump
in the road toward continuing lower Arctic
sea ice coverage.
The National Snow and
Ice Data Center predicts this year's minimum summer sea ice extent won't break the record set in 20
Ice Data Center predicts this year's
minimum summer
sea ice extent won't break the record set in 20
ice extent won't break the record set
in 2012.
The US National Snow and
Ice Data Center, which monitors Arctic ice, said last week: «It is unlikely that Arctic sea ice extent this September will fall below the record minimum set in 2012.&raq
Ice Data Center, which monitors Arctic
ice, said last week: «It is unlikely that Arctic sea ice extent this September will fall below the record minimum set in 2012.&raq
ice, said last week: «It is unlikely that Arctic
sea ice extent this September will fall below the record minimum set in 2012.&raq
ice extent this September will fall below the record
minimum set
in 2012.»
My take on this is that
in August the Arctic Ocean's
ice carapace reaches its
minimum and consequently the maximum surface area of the coldest
sea water on the planet is exposed to the atmosphere.
Note that the
sea ice extent is likely to be higher than the record September
minimum in 2012 simply due to «regression to the mean», but it would not imply that there had been any «recovery».
This month's report includes details on the causes of the 2012
minimum, the use of
sea ice volume versus extent,
sea ice in climate models, and late spring 2013 conditions.
On September 12, 2009,
sea ice in the Arctic Ocean most likely reached its minimum extent for 2009, said the National Snow and Ice Data Cent
ice in the Arctic Ocean most likely reached its
minimum extent for 2009, said the National Snow and
Ice Data Cent
Ice Data Center.
If this thinning would have eliminated
ice from areas observed to have
sea ice, a
minimum thickness of 20 cm was left
in place for the
ice initial condition.
The
minimum ice extent was the second lowest
in the satellite record, after 2007, and continues the decadal trend of rapidly decreasing summer
sea ice.
The average historic summer
minimum (the yellow line
in Fig. 1) indicates large portions of the Chukchi
Sea's foraging habitat have been covered with summer
ice concentrations of 50 % and greater for much of the 20th century.