Sentences with phrase «sea ice modeling at»

Not exact matches

It also eliminates much of the uncertainty surrounding potentially ill effects; whereas various mathematical models may disagree about when and at what concentrations Arctic Ocean sea ice disappears, they all agree that at roughly 3 degrees C of warming, the far north will be ice - free.

«When we look forward several decades, climate models predict such profound loss of Arctic sea ice that there's little doubt this will negatively affect polar bears throughout much of their range, because of their critical dependence on sea ice,» said Kristin Laidre, a researcher at the University of Washington's Polar Science Center in Seattle and co-author of a study on projections of the global polar bear population.

Coastal sea ice formation takes place on relatively small scales, however, and is not captured well in global climate models, according to scientists at the University of California, Santa Cruz, who conducted the study.

What's left to figure out is whether this is happening with other subglacial lakes around the Greenland ice sheet, as well as whether and how to incorporate the findings into models that are aimed at gauging how much Greenland might change with the warming climate and how much water it could add to the rising seas.

Although researchers have been generally successful at modelling the huge declines in Arctic sea ice, the extent of Antarctic sea ice has actually increased in recent years, contrary to the predictions of models.

The model simulates melting at the base of the Amundsen Sea ice shelves at current rates over several decades.

«The primary uncertainty in sea level rise is what are the ice sheets going to do over the coming century,» said Mathieu Morlighem, an expert in ice sheet modeling at the University of California, Irvine, who led the paper along with dozens of other contributors from institutions around the world.

The consequences of global sea level rise could be even scarier than the worst - case scenarios predicted by the dominant climate models, which don't fully account for the fast breakup of ice sheets and glaciers, NASA scientists said today (Aug. 26) at a press briefing.

«People have been talking about the possible link between winds and Antarctic sea ice expansion before, but I think this is the first study that confirms this link through a model experiment,» commented Axel Schweiger, a polar scientist at the UW Applied Physics Lab.

When the model held the polar winds at a constant level, the sea ice increased only 20 percent as much.

For the new study, Thomas Rackow and his colleagues fed actual position and size data of 6,912 Antarctic icebergs into the Finite Element Sea Ice - Ocean Model FESOM, which they combined with a dynamic - thermodynamic iceberg model (both of which were developed at the Model FESOM, which they combined with a dynamic - thermodynamic iceberg model (both of which were developed at the model (both of which were developed at the AWI).

Previously, Kelly was a Postdoctoral Fellow and Research Associate at the University of Washington and the University of Victoria in British Columbia, Canada where she studied the role of the changing Arctic sea ice cover on global circulation, weather, and climate using a hierarchy of numerical global climate models.

Just look at the plots taken from CMIP4 and CMIP5 models when they are compared with measured extents from NSIDC data then tell us where you would place your bet for a summer free of sea ice.

She has shown, in an ice sheet model with gravitationally self - consistent sea level, there is actually a sea level fall at the grounding line, which acts to stabilize against the marine ice sheet instability.

A recent model study showed that the crossover between initial - value and climate - forced predictability for sea ice occurs at about 3 years (Blanchard - Wrigglesworth et al. 2011).

Global climate model projections (in CMIP3 at least) appear to underestimate sea ice extent losses with respect to observations, though this is not universally true for all models and some of them actually have ensemble spreads that are compatible with PIOMAS ice volume estimates and satellite observations of sea ice extent.

Just look at the plots taken from CMIP4 and CMIP5 models when they are compared with measured extents from NSIDC data then tell us where you would place your bet for a summer free of sea ice.

For what it's worth, though, at least one modeling study did indeed show growth in Antarctic sea ice.

Intuitively, one would think that model the underestimate of the decline in Arctic sea ice extent would also be reflected, at least partly, in an underestimate of Arctic temperature rise.

In LGM simulations land albedo changes are prescribed (at least in regards to ice sheets and altered topography due to sea level; there are feedback land albedo changes) so are a forcing, whereas sea ice is determined interactively by the model climate, so is a feedback in this framework.

The models also suggested that the rise in Arctic temperatures at the time, corresponded with the observed reduction in sea ice.

This one at least is consistent with other data, like the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, way ahead of any model predictions I've seen published prior to the decline.

Look, I do not claim that climate models are perfect — far from it — but their matches to observed data at the large scale are impressive — Pinatubo, last 30 years, response to ENSO, NAO response, sea ice response, ozone hole response etc..

It is not that the polar regions are amplifying the warming «going on» at lower latitudes, it is that any warming going on AT THE POLES is amplified through inherent positive feedback processes AT THE POLES, and specifically this is primarily the ice - albedo positive feedback process whereby more open water leads to more warming leads to more open water, etc. *** «Climate model simulations have shown that ice albedo feedbacks associated with variations in snow and sea - ice coverage are a key factor in positive feedback mechanisms which amplify climate change at high northern latitudes...&raquat lower latitudes, it is that any warming going on AT THE POLES is amplified through inherent positive feedback processes AT THE POLES, and specifically this is primarily the ice - albedo positive feedback process whereby more open water leads to more warming leads to more open water, etc. *** «Climate model simulations have shown that ice albedo feedbacks associated with variations in snow and sea - ice coverage are a key factor in positive feedback mechanisms which amplify climate change at high northern latitudes...&raquAT THE POLES is amplified through inherent positive feedback processes AT THE POLES, and specifically this is primarily the ice - albedo positive feedback process whereby more open water leads to more warming leads to more open water, etc. *** «Climate model simulations have shown that ice albedo feedbacks associated with variations in snow and sea - ice coverage are a key factor in positive feedback mechanisms which amplify climate change at high northern latitudes...&raquAT THE POLES, and specifically this is primarily the ice - albedo positive feedback process whereby more open water leads to more warming leads to more open water, etc. *** «Climate model simulations have shown that ice albedo feedbacks associated with variations in snow and sea - ice coverage are a key factor in positive feedback mechanisms which amplify climate change at high northern latitudes...&raquat high northern latitudes...»

Yuan et al. (LDEO Columbia University), 5.08 (+ / - 0.51), Statistical The prediction is made by statistical models, which are capable to predict Arctic sea ice concentrations at grid points 3 - month in advance with reasonable skills.

«Climate model simulations have shown that ice albedo feedbacks associated with variations in snow and sea - ice coverage are a key factor in positive feedback mechanisms which amplify climate change at high northern latitudes...»

While finishing up her dissertation at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Parkinson and climate scientist William Kellogg decided to take the theory about carbon dioxide emissions increasing global temperatures and apply it to a sea ice model that Parkinson had built.

They used the very advanced ECMWF seasonal prediction model at high resolution and prescribed various sea - ice concentrations, ENSO states, as well SST and solar forcings.

See Figure 3 at this link which shows a comparison of model projections of the evolution of Arctic sea ice with the observations overlaid (updated from Stroeve et al., 2007).

In fact, although climate models predict that Arctic sea ice will decline in response to greenhouse gas increases, the current pace of retreat at the end of the melt season is exceeding the models» forecasts by around a factor of 3 (Stroeve 2007).

Arctic air temperatures are increasing at twice the rate of the rest of the world — a study by the U. S. Navy says that the Arctic could lose its summer sea ice by next year, eighty - four years ahead of the models — and evidence little more than a year old suggests the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is doomed, which will add between twenty and twenty - five feet to ocean leveice by next year, eighty - four years ahead of the models — and evidence little more than a year old suggests the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is doomed, which will add between twenty and twenty - five feet to ocean leveIce Sheet is doomed, which will add between twenty and twenty - five feet to ocean levels.

«If sea ice declines at the rates projected by the IPCC climate models, and continues to influence emperor penguins as it did in the second half of the 20th century in Terre Adélie, at least two - thirds of the colonies are projected to have declined by greater than 50 % from their current size by 2100,» Dr Jenouvrier said.

Arctic sea ice has declined at a rate significantly faster than global climate models have predicted.

In particular, the main task will be the development of an ensemble - based data assimilation system for the state - of - the - art sea ice model, neXtSIM, developed in - house at NERSC.

You ask some great questions, and the answers are the subject of much ongoing research as the majority (but not all) of the climate models looking at the decline in Arctic sea ice from anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing did not forsee the extremely rapid decline we've seen.

At the pan-arctic level, the two coupled ice - ocean model ensemble simulations (Kauker, Zhang) show good agreement, in particular regarding ice conditions in the East Siberian Sea.

Though most of the CMIP5 models project a strong > nearly ice - free Arctic (sea ice extent less than 1 × 106 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years)...

The model prediction is based on the coupled Air - Sea - Ice Climate Forecast System (CFS) at NCEP.

«Though most of the CMIP5 models project a nearly ice - free Arctic (sea ice extent less than 1 × 106 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years) at the end of summer by 2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario...»

The pan-arctic ensemble runs with a coupled ice - ocean model by Kauker et al. also indicate a distinct ice thickness anomaly in the East Siberian Sea, where thicknesses at the end of June 2010 are shown to be higher by a factor of roughly two as compared to the previous three years.

Though most of the CMIP5 models project a nearly ice - free Arctic (sea ice extent less than 1 × 106 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years) at the end of summer by 2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario (see Section 12.4.6.1), some show large changes in the near term as well.

«CMIP5 models project a nearly ice - free Arctic (sea ice extent less than 1 × 10 ^ 6 km2 for at least 5 consecutive years) at the end of summer by 2100 in the RCP8.5 scenario... «Assume a 15 km2 million max and 3 km2 million min.

Researchers at CIRES» National Snow and Ice Data Center [About NSIDC] investigate the dynamics of Antarctic ice shelves, new techniques for the remote sensing of snow and freeze / thaw cycle of soils, the role of snow in hydrologic modeling, linkages between changes in sea ice extent and weather patterns, large - scale shifts in polar climate, river and lake ice, and the distribution and characteristics of seasonally and permanently frozen grouIce Data Center [About NSIDC] investigate the dynamics of Antarctic ice shelves, new techniques for the remote sensing of snow and freeze / thaw cycle of soils, the role of snow in hydrologic modeling, linkages between changes in sea ice extent and weather patterns, large - scale shifts in polar climate, river and lake ice, and the distribution and characteristics of seasonally and permanently frozen grouice shelves, new techniques for the remote sensing of snow and freeze / thaw cycle of soils, the role of snow in hydrologic modeling, linkages between changes in sea ice extent and weather patterns, large - scale shifts in polar climate, river and lake ice, and the distribution and characteristics of seasonally and permanently frozen grouice extent and weather patterns, large - scale shifts in polar climate, river and lake ice, and the distribution and characteristics of seasonally and permanently frozen grouice, and the distribution and characteristics of seasonally and permanently frozen ground.

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Centice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science CentIce Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

Modeled monthly sea ice concentrations at the four different core locations.

Why look at higher than average sea ice when there's a perfectly good model going to waste that will tell you the real facts!

The neXtSIM model is currently being developed at the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and is unique among sea ice models owing to its rheological framework that is based on solid mechanics and allowing to reproduce the multifractal scaling invariance of sea ice deformation with an unprecedented realism.

Ensemble decadal prediction simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) can skillfully predict past decadal rates of Atlantic winter sea ice change because they do well at predicting THC - driven ocean heat content change in the vicinity of the winter sea ice edge in the Labrador, Greenland, Irminger, and Barents Seas.

Apparently, since data such as the all time record HIGH Antarctic sea ice, advancing Arctic sea ice, slowing to non existent GMSL at less than 2 / mm annual (and negative in some recent years), flat to lower global temps for almost 2 decades, and all the myriads of other associated data... flatly, empirically, REFUTE this cadre of AGW grant leaching con artists pretending to do science with grossly false models....

Tidal variability in more complex regional models that include sea ice, ice shelves, and ocean currents that vary with depth, is obtained by using global models to set tides at the regional model's open boundaries.