Sentences with phrase «sea ice prediction in»

Networking scientists and stakeholders to improve sea ice prediction in a changing Arctic.

«Impacts of Assimilating Satellite Sea Ice Concentration and Thickness on Arctic Sea Ice Prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System» J. Climate 0, (https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0093.1).

Given the lack of meteorological support and several indications that the sea ice was rather thin, we note that thermodynamic melting of thin, mobile sea ice is now a dominant process, justifying the low sea ice predictions in the Sea Ice Outlook.

Not exact matches

This gives confidence in the predictions of the current generation of ice - sheet models which are used to forecast future ice loss from Antarctica and resulting sea - level rise.»

«Ice loss from this part of West Antarctica is already making a significant contribution to sea - level rise — around 1 mm per decade, and is actually one of the largest uncertainties in global sea - level rise predictions.

In turn, sharing scientific and indigenous predictive capabilities is meant to improve coastal ice interpretation and prediction based on satellite imagery, assist communities refining public safety measures, and to add local sea ice to parameters used in assessing global climate change in the ArctiIn turn, sharing scientific and indigenous predictive capabilities is meant to improve coastal ice interpretation and prediction based on satellite imagery, assist communities refining public safety measures, and to add local sea ice to parameters used in assessing global climate change in the Arctiin assessing global climate change in the Arctiin the Arctic.

Given that we now have several years more data, we can essentially «test» the IPCC predictions and we arrive at the conclusion (i.e., message 1) that the climate system is tracking the «worst case scenario» (or worse in the case of ice melt and sea - level rise) presented by the IPCC.

«We found that in years when the sea ice extent departed strongly from the trend, such as in 2012 and 2013, predictions failed regardless of the method used to forecast the September sea ice extent,» said Julienne Stroeve, a senior scientist at NSIDC and professor at University of College London.

The next step is to use estimates of future sea ice loss to make predictions of how further melting could influence summer rainfall in Europe in the years to come.

At the same time, there is considerable public interest in dependable predictions concerning Arctic sea ice development over the next few decades, so as to have a basis for long - term strategic planning.

Although researchers have been generally successful at modelling the huge declines in Arctic sea ice, the extent of Antarctic sea ice has actually increased in recent years, contrary to the predictions of models.

A project off Greenland will tag whales with sensors to measure sea temperatures and ice melt in hard - to - reach places, improving predictions of sea - level rise

Better modeling of Arctic sea - ice changes could improve prediction of changes in rainfall, the researchers said.

Kuhn, from Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute, added, «This gives confidence in the predictions of the current generation of ice sheet models which are used to forecast future ice loss from Antarctica and resulting sea - level rise.»

A number of recent studies linking changes in the North Atlantic ocean circulation to sea ice extent led Yeager to think that it would also be possible to make decadal predictions for Arctic winter sea ice cover using the NCAR - based Community Earth System Model...

Current predictions [5], [6] suggest that trends in sea ice extent will alter in the second half of this century and that the annual average sea ice extent will diminish by 33 %; most of this retreat is expected to occur in winter and spring [5], [6], with attendant risks for emperor penguins.

PIOMAS has been run in a forward mode (and hence without data assimilation) to yield seasonal predictions for the sea ice outlook (Zhang et al. 2008) and has also provided input to statistical forecasts (Lindsay et al. 2008) and fully - coupled models.

Prediction methods for the sea ice minima range from ad - hoc guesses to model predictions, from statistical analyses to water - cooler speculation in the blogosphere.

Many of these predictions are compiled in the SEARCH - sponsored «sea ice outlook ``.

For is it not true that the IPCC is comprised of a wide range of scientist and they all must agree on the content of their reports, that some of said scientists are either on the payroll of oil - dependent nations or are politically conservative, and that the IPCC predictions have consistently underestimated the effects of climate change in terms of temperature rise, sea level rise, ice cap diminution, etc..?

We find a consistent decreasing trend in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness since 1979, and a steady decline in the Eastern Arctic Ocean over the full 40 - year period of comparison that accelerated after 1980, but the predictions of Western Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness between 1962 and 1980 differ substantially.

First is the identification of a runaway condition in outflow glaciers of the West Antarctic ice sheet that makes the IPCC prediction for year - 2100 sea level rise clearly obsolete.

Topics of potential interest: The successful OCO - 2 launch, continuing likelihood of an El Niño event this fall, predictions of the September Arctic sea ice minimum, Antarctic sea ice excursions, stochastic elements in climate models etc..

«The intent is not to issue predictions, but rather to summarize all available information from ongoing observing and modeling efforts to provide the scientific community, stakeholders, and the public the best available information on the evolution of the arctic sea ice cover,» said the coordinators in a statement.

Taken at face value, Fig 3 manifests into a prediction that sea ice will increase, with expected values in 2080 25 % above 2011 values.

In online science discussions, the fate of this years summer sea ice has been the focus of a significant betting pool, a test of expert prediction skills, and a week - by - week (almost) running commentary.

The article in The Independent makes its predictions based on the increased speed of reduction of the Sea Ice Area compared to last year.

You can compare the current ice conditions with predictions made earlier in the year through the Sea Ice Outlook effort, a project of the Arctic Research Consortiice conditions with predictions made earlier in the year through the Sea Ice Outlook effort, a project of the Arctic Research ConsortiIce Outlook effort, a project of the Arctic Research Consortium.

Interannual variability is prominent in all regions and will pose a challenge to sea ice prediction efforts.

Still, there are many other veteran sea - ice scientists (this is not false balance) who note that the complexity of this system has consistently defied predictions in either direction (see this year's Sea Ice Outlook forecasts to get the range of forecastsea - ice scientists (this is not false balance) who note that the complexity of this system has consistently defied predictions in either direction (see this year's Sea Ice Outlook forecasts to get the range of forecastice scientists (this is not false balance) who note that the complexity of this system has consistently defied predictions in either direction (see this year's Sea Ice Outlook forecasts to get the range of forecastSea Ice Outlook forecasts to get the range of forecastIce Outlook forecasts to get the range of forecasts).

Even prior to any large feedback involving the ice sheets or carbon cycle, the actual rise in sea - level continues to be at the top edge of the envelope of the IPCC's predictions.

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoIce Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoSea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoIce Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictosea ice predictoice predictors.

Yuan et al. (LDEO Columbia University), 5.08 (+ / - 0.51), Statistical The prediction is made by statistical models, which are capable to predict Arctic sea ice concentrations at grid points 3 - month in advance with reasonable skills.

In late August, a Reuters story began with «a thaw of Antarctic ice is outpacing predictions by the U.N. climate panel and could in the worst case drive up world sea levels by 2 meters (6 feet) by 2100, a leading expert said.&raquIn late August, a Reuters story began with «a thaw of Antarctic ice is outpacing predictions by the U.N. climate panel and could in the worst case drive up world sea levels by 2 meters (6 feet) by 2100, a leading expert said.&raquin the worst case drive up world sea levels by 2 meters (6 feet) by 2100, a leading expert said.»

During the final months of funding for the initial Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) project, efforts were focused on the core Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) activities in the summer and fall of 2017.

By: Betsy Turner - Bogren and Helen Wiggins, ARCUS SIPN 2017 During the final months of funding for the initial Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) project, efforts were focused on the core Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) activities in the summer and fall of 2017.

I am making no prediction about long term trends in sea ice.

Precise weather and sea - ice predictions will play an increasingly important role in managing related safety issues in polar regions.

The «so called science» has so far proven remarkably accurate in its predictions of a warming planet, increasing heat waves, fires, melting ice caps, loss of sea ice, species migration and variable rainfall.

The only problem with all the predictions about the level of the World Ocean rising is that, the World Ocean is refusing to rise up in support of the predictions, the other problem is that ice is frozen fresh water and frozen fresh water only covers about 5 % of this planet above sea level and frozen water under the level of the World Ocean does not count as the World Ocean will fall a small amount if that ice melts, so if the ice there is enough to get the World Ocean to rise and significant amount then it must be piled up very high, I cubic kilometer of water as ice, should it melt, would make 1000 square kilometers rise by one meter, so when you use this simple math then somewhere on the planet, above the level of the sea, then there must be over 500,000 cubic kilometers of ice, piled up and just waiting to melt, strange that no one can find that amount of ice, all these morons who talk about the rise of the World Ocean in tens of meters, this includes you Peter Garrett or Mr. 7 Meters, the ice does not exist to allow this amount of rise in the World Ocean, it is just not there.

A central topic will be teleconnections in the climate system, i.e. how a change in climate in one part of the globe (e.g. temperatures in the Atlantic or shrinking sea ice cover in the Arctic) can influence climate on other parts of the globe (e.g. Eurasian winter temperatures), and how we can use this information to improve regional climate prediction and therefore regional climate service.

Chapman, W.L. and J.E. Walsh 1991 Long - Range Prediction of Regional Sea Ice Anomalies in the Arctic Weather and Forecasting 6, 271 - 288.

As the rate of sea ice decline speeds up it is starting to exceed the predictions of climate computer models which had previously suggested that by 2100 the Arctic will be ice free in summer.

With impacts on Arctic coastal communities and increases in maritime activities, both observations of changes underway and predictions at the scale of less than a week to several months out are of importance to the research community and those living and operating in ice - covered seas.

Predictions, an early baby El Nino this coming year, 2014, will fade and 2014 will be the 9 nth coldest of recent years Arctic Sea Ice extent will speed up in the coming months and go through the average to record a positive anomaly within 12 weeks.

Yet some kind of climate model is indispensable to make future predictions of the climate system and IPCC has identified several reasons for respect in the climate models including the fact that models are getting better in predicting what monitoring evidence is actually observing around the world in regard to temperature, ice and snow cover, droughts and floods, and sea level rise among other things.

The Fall 2017 issue of Witness the Arctic includes news about the NSF Vision for Research Support and Logistics at Summit Stations; Arctic Social Science research on Alaska Native Elderly health; Sea Ice Prediction Network activities; the Study of Environmental Arctic Change program's syntheses and communication efforts; a workshop on relationships between research and Alaskan Indigenous communities; the newly - released map for the Agreement to Enhance International Arctic Scientific Cooperation; an international workshop on maritime traffic in the Bering Strait; IARPC and the Polar Research Board activities; the 2017 Joint Science Education Project, international activities at IASC, the Year of Polar Prediction project, and the Greenland Ecological Monitoring Program; recent ARCUS activities; and comments from ARCUS Executive Director, Robert Rich.

These sea level change predictions may be underestimates, however, because they do not account for any increases in the rate at which the world's major ice sheets are melting.

If things are so good now, despite declines in summer sea ice, what does that say about the accuracy of their predictions?

A new ensemble prediction from an ice - ocean model was submitted by Zhang for the July outlook and the new sea ice thickness map for September 2010 still shows ice remaining in Lancaster Sound.