Not exact matches
This is because the «early camp» are missing a major factor, even though most of them don't know it: That factor is that first year
sea ice will
continue to grow to
thicknesses of around 1.5 to 2m through the winter, so the key issue in whether September can be virtually
sea -
ice free is how much
sea ice can be lost between March and September.
Although the
sea ice extent has held up since 2007, the
thickness has declined; but the extent can not
continue to hold up indefinitely while the
thickness continues to decline.
The mean
ice concentration anomaly for June 2013 is 0.9 x 106 square kilometers greater than June 2012, however Arctic
sea ice thicknesses and volumes
continue to remain the lowest on record.
In response to your question I would refer you to my comment above Dave Wendt (14:39:39): where I discuss the Rigor and Wallace paper of 2004 which demonstrated that the decline in
sea ice age and
thickness began with a shift in state in Beaufort Gyre and the TransPolar Drift in 1989 which resulted in multiyear
ice declining from over 80 % of the Arctic to 30 % in about one year and that the persistence of that pattern has been responsible for the
continuing decline.
From the atmospheric temperature rise to the acidification of the
sea, from
ice thickness and extent to
sea levels, we really need to
continue to know what is going on.