Sentences with phrase «sea ice trend»

NSIDC has high confidence in sea ice trend statistics and the comparison of sea ice extent between years.

So what are the minders of the 1970's technology in orbit doing wrong, that they can't make the very expensive equipment outperform land - based stations as predictors of sea ice trend?

In its latest post the site looks at the July results and the overall global temperature and sea ice trend.

Although there has been a positive sea ice trend in the Ross Sea, it is quite distant from the coastline of West Antarctica from 130 ° W to the dateline, but approaches the coastline of East Antarctica from 130 ° E to 90 ° E.

A positive phase of the SAM, contributing to stronger westerlies in this sector (Fig. 6a) could also explain the sea ice trend.

«Global Sea ice trend by year only (barely) crosses 95 % significance when the first two months of satellite data is included for the entire record.»

There is currently one clearly significant sea ice trend in the Antarctic; it is in the region bordering the Antarctic Peninsula, and it is a declining trend.

The changes made to all years just made the sea ice trend look like it was a straight line going down (while before there were ups and downs and a slight downward trend.)

Shown below is the declining sea ice trend for the month of January since satellite measurements began, in 1979.

I think NSDIC did a good job this year in keeping people informed about the shrinking sea ice trend.

remember the arctic sea ice trend remember the kilimanjaro glacier trend à ¯ f the trend presists it'll all be gone by 2050.

Here's the global sea ice trend, combining what's going on up north and down south.

Actually the predictions of the overall sea ice trend have been accurate.

Researchers are still investigating what forces, including global warming, are driving Antarctic sea ice trends.

[Aug. 9, 8:04 p.m. Updated Joe Romm has predictably assailed my view of Arctic sea ice trends and their implications, straying into discussions of melting permafrost (which is an entirely different issue laden with its own questions — one being why the last big retreat of permafrost, in the Holocene's warmest stretch, didn't have a greenhouse - gas impact) and my refusal to proclaim a magically safe level of carbon dioxide (which I discuss here).

Updated, July 23, 1:40 p.m. A new study of methods used to track Antarctic sea ice trends has raised important questions about whether recent increases in ice there are, to a significant extent, an illusion created by flawed analysis of data collected by a series of satellites.

Joe Romm has predictably assailed my rejection of his «death spiral» depiction of Arctic sea ice trends, straying into discussions of melting permafrost (which is an entirely different issue laden with its own questions — one being why the last big retreat of permafrost, in the Holocene's warmest stretch, didn't have a greenhouse - gas impact) and my refusal to proclaim a magically safe level of carbon dioxide (which I discuss here).

iheartheidicullen @ 162: Sorry if my tone was intemperate, but really the SH and NH sea ice trends have been analysed at length online by Tamino and others, over the last year or two, with the clear conclusion that the SH anomaly trend is small (the anomaly at the maximum last year was about 1.5 % of the mean annual maximum, if I remember correctly) and not statistically significant (at the 95 % level, I think), whereas the NH trend is large (tens of percent), long - lived, and statistically very significant indeed.

The AMO is cyclic and will return to negative soon enough and this graph implies that sea ice trends will just reverse in a few years.

Computing and representing sea ice trends: Toward a community consensus.

But on the contrary, the Southern Ocean has warmed by around 0.5 °C in the three decades since satellites began measuring sea ice trends.

And I await the reversal of sea ice trends.

Fan, T., et al. (2014) Recent Antarctic sea ice trends in the context of Southern Ocean surface climate variations since 1950, Geophys.

Similar sea ice trends and weather conditions were present during the spring seasons preceding past ice shelf retreats (e.g., 2001 to 2002).

Method: Weather and sea ice trends.

However, there remains uncertainty in the rate of sea ice loss, with the models that most accurately project historical sea ice trends currently suggesting nearly ice - free conditions sometime between 2021 and 2043 (median 2035).12 Uncertainty across all models stems from a combination of large differences in projections among different climate models, natural climate variability, and uncertainty about future rates of fossil fuel emissions.

Zack Labe, a climate scientist at the University of California at Irvine, has a knack for creating compelling visuals of Arctic sea ice trends and air temperatures.

As far as sea ice trends are concerned, both the Antarctic and the Arctic lose most of their sea ice and regain it again each year.

So the impact of any Antarctic sea ice trends on climate is less than in the Arctic.

So, the IPCC AR4's contention that sea ice trends in Antarctica «continues» to show «no statistically significant average trends» contrasts with what it had concluded in the TAR.

While our congruency analysis can explain the spatial pattern of positive sea ice trends in the Ross Sea and negative sea ice trends in the Amundsen - Bellingshausen Seas, it does not capture the negative trends in the Weddell Sea.

While it is tempting to attribute the unexplained sea ice trends to other factors such as increased upwelling of relatively warm circumpolar deepwater (Thoma et al. 2008), an intensification of the hydrological cycle and increased ocean stratification (Liu and Curry 2010), or eastward propagation of sea ice anomalies (Holland et al. 2005), the observed northerly wind trends (Fig. 5a) are qualitatively consistent with the decrease in sea ice in the 30 ° W — 60 ° W sector.

From 2006 to 2016, global sea ice trends have also been remarkably stable despite a massive increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions during this period.

This quantitative result confirms our qualitative description of the near - surface wind trends (Sect. 3) and their likely forcing of the sea ice trends.

Examination of sea ice trends in each month of the year shows that the large - scale spatial patterns of sea ice trends are remarkably persistent from month to month (not shown).

The terrestrial temperature change that is linearly congruent with the ABS and Bellingshausen sea ice trends are displayed in Fig. 5c, d.

We analyze the covariance of the temperature and sea ice trends, and discuss how wind changes may force the latter.

This is what the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), released in 2001, had to say about Antarctic sea ice trends (Chapter 3, p. 125):

While other studies have had limited success in quantitatively explaining Antarctic sea ice trends in terms of the atmospheric circulation (Liu et al. 2004; Stammerjohn et al. 2008), our congruency analysis of sea ice trends with the atmospheric circulation (Figs. 7b, 8a) explains nearly all of the negative sea ice trend in the Amundsen Sea and a significant portion of the negative trends in the Bellingshausen Sea and positive trends in the Ross Sea.

Some cooling on the EAIS also appears to be connected with the ABS sea ice trends, likely through organized patterns of atmospheric circulation changes.

Most studies of sea ice trends have shown that the negative trends in the ABS and the opposite trends in the Ross Sea, are persistent year - round (e.g. Turner et al. 2009; Comiso and Nishio 2008; Cavaleri and Parkinson 2008; Stammerjohn et al. 2008).

Negative sea ice trends (warm colors) predominate from the vicinity of Orcadas station near 40 ° W to the eastern Ross Sea at 130 ° W. Positive sea ice trends (cool colors) predominate from 140 ° W to 120 ° E, while trends are small from 120 ° E to the Greenwich Meridian.

If you agree we shouldn't start sea ice trends in anomalously cold or high extent years, surely you will agree that 1979 is not acceptable as a starting point.

Furthermore, virtually all of the negative trends in ice concentration in the Amundsen Sea and a third or more of the negative sea ice trends in the Bellingshausen Sea are explained, along with a third or more of the positive sea ice trends in the Ross Sea.

Also, a recent analysis of Antarctic sea ice trends for 1978 — 1996 by Watkins and Simmonds [2000] found significant increases in both Antarctic sea ice extent and ice area, similar to the results in this paper.

For both hemispheres combined, then, the addition of about 65 ppm of atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1979 has apparently had no overall effect on global - scale sea ice trends.

This late - 1970s reversal in sea ice trends was not captured by the hindcasts of the recent CMIP5 climate models used for the latest IPCC reports, which suggests that current climate models are still quite poor at modelling past sea ice trends.»

There will be waffles, ad homs, side tracks, discussions of Arctic sea ice trends or Russian heat waves, etc., but no specifics on the topic of discussion.

The newer CMIP5 simulations that are being used in the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report are in better agreement with the observed sea ice loss (Stroeve et al., 2012a; Massonnet et al., 2012), but the reasons for the differences in sea ice trends between the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models remain unclear.

The paper concluded that «current climate models are still quite poor at modelling past sea ice trends» after including a graph showing a decline in sea ice starting at the beginning of the «satellite era» in 1979.