Sentences with phrase «sea ice trends from»

Not exact matches

A new University of Washington study, with funding and satellite data from NASA and other agencies, finds a trend toward earlier sea ice melt in the spring and later ice growth in the fall across all 19 polar bear populations, which can negatively impact the feeding and breeding capabilities of the bears.

«We found that in years when the sea ice extent departed strongly from the trend, such as in 2012 and 2013, predictions failed regardless of the method used to forecast the September sea ice extent,» said Julienne Stroeve, a senior scientist at NSIDC and professor at University of College London.

Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), University College London, University of New Hampshire and University of Washington analyzed 300 summer Arctic sea ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yeaIce Data Center (NSIDC), University College London, University of New Hampshire and University of Washington analyzed 300 summer Arctic sea ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yeaice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yeaice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yeaice for the last 30 years.

One year without a net loss also doesn't buck the long - term trend of Greenland losing ice, both from surface melt and from ocean waters eating away at glaciers that flow out to sea.

So it seems you have a very conservative estimate from the CMIP ensembles, which are known to suffer from various weaknesses wrt sea ice, and which certainly don't capture the trends over the last decade or so.

andy, from your above - referenced article on sea - ice trends: «But another factor was probably involved, one with roots going back to about 1989.

Further signs of this warming trend can be seen in the Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

[Andy Revkin — On Arctic ice trends, I have a post coming shortly on the latest update from the world's leading teams of sea ice experts, showing this year's retreat is unlikely to match last year's, while the long - term trend is still heading toward ever less summer ice.

Internal variability as estimated from observations can't explain sea - ice loss Superposition of a linear trend and internal variability explains sea - ice loss Observational sea - ice record shows no signs of self - acceleration

Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).

Scientists who study the warming seas and complicated climate and ice trends around Antarctica got a big jolt in recent days as yet another great fringing, floating ice shelf jutting from the Antarctic Peninsula began to disintegrate.

However, during the mid-2000s, with several fewer years in the observational record, the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent was reported to be considerably smaller and statistically indistinguishable from zero.

Over all, the analysts as a group see no deviation from the long - term trend toward thinning and dwindling summer sea ice given how the Arctic tends to amplify the long - term global warming trend.

The goal, the scientists say, is to compare independent methods of gauging ice trends from factors including sea temperature, ice thickness and cycles of atmospheric pressure and winds around the Arctic.

The researchers also found no predictive value in seeking insights from trends in conditions like sea - ice thickness.

Cawley, 4.35 (+ / - 1.16), Statistical This is a purely statistical method (related to Krigging) to estimate the long term trend from previous observations of September Arctic sea ice extent.

Arctic sea ice «recovered» (if you want to use that term very loosely) in 2008 and 2009 from the extreme low seen in 2007, and skeptics were certain that the trend would continue up in 2010.

If you look at the long term trend of Arctic Sea ice, it appears to be only down down down to ice free from here.

The trend in concentrated sea ice extent in the Arctic summer is not uniform across the study period but mostly a phenomenon of the latter half from 1998 - 2014.

Generally yes, but there has been a lot of new information learned since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (e.g., on trends in hurricane intensity, the accelerated melting back of Arctic sea ice, the intensifying deterioration of the edges of the Greenland Ice Sheet, etc.) and Gore's presentation of the science has been updated to account for these, drawing from what are the really highly reviewed and high quality papers by leading scientisice, the intensifying deterioration of the edges of the Greenland Ice Sheet, etc.) and Gore's presentation of the science has been updated to account for these, drawing from what are the really highly reviewed and high quality papers by leading scientisIce Sheet, etc.) and Gore's presentation of the science has been updated to account for these, drawing from what are the really highly reviewed and high quality papers by leading scientists.

What I can share from our findings is that the freshwater balance, and therefore the halocline, is largely responsible for the winter time trends of sea ice growth.

It's true that some climate models predict that Antarctic sea ice should be decreasing, but as Polvani and Smith (2013) shows, the natural variability in Antarctic sea ice extent is probably larger than any trend from the forced response in models anyway.

The up trend for the anomaly in sea ice from 1978 to end 2006 is 804Km ^ 2 per year.

This is an important article, Climategrog, because it shows from a different type of data (date of minimum extent) that something happened around 2007 to Arctic sea ice that interrupted a 35 year trend.

Furthermore, the negative trend in sea ice extent has now shifted from − 2.2 % per decade for the period 1979 — 1996, to − 10.1 % per decade for the period 1996 — 2007 [Comiso et al., 2008].

The Barents sea ice looks like it switched from a high ice mode to a low ice mode in 2005 and there isn't much of a trend to speak of.

At this point, the sea ice loss showed more of a historical loss trend, but because of the low June value it has remained below the previous lowest value from 2007.

THERE HAS BEEN A WARMING TREND FROM THE 70s THRU THE LATE 90s,... accompanied by other changes tied to a warming trend (record low arctic sea ice extent & thickness, retreating glaciers, retreating snow lines, warming ocean surface temps, increases in sea height, de-alkalinizing oceTREND FROM THE 70s THRU THE LATE 90s,... accompanied by other changes tied to a warming trend (record low arctic sea ice extent & thickness, retreating glaciers, retreating snow lines, warming ocean surface temps, increases in sea height, de-alkalinizing ocetrend (record low arctic sea ice extent & thickness, retreating glaciers, retreating snow lines, warming ocean surface temps, increases in sea height, de-alkalinizing oceans).

Not only does this low - pressure area, or cyclone, look bigger, more intense and longer - lasting than the one from last year, the ice also seems to be in a weaker state than ever, as evidenced by the fact that 2012 trend lines on both sea ice area and sea ice extent graphs track lower than previous record years, despite weather that until recently would completely stall the decline.

Looking at AR5, these seem to be the take away messages: «Comparing trends from the CCSM4 ensemble to observed trends suggests that internal variability could account for approximately half of the observed 1979 — 2005 September Arctic sea ice extent loss.»

``... examination of records of fast ice thickness and ice extent from four Arctic marginal seas (Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi) indicates that long - term trends are small and generally statistically insignificant, while trends for shorter records are not indicative of the long - term tendencies due to strong low - frequency variability in these time series, which places a strong limitation on our ability to resolve long - term trends....

When this trend is extrapolated out 80 million years from now, it suggests that even if all of today's ice caps were to melt, sea levels would be 230 feet (70 meters) lower than they are today.

While the value for 2009 is near the trend line (see Stern), arctic sea ice internal conditions are considerably different from 2005.

Actually Fielding's use of that graph is quite informative of how denialist arguments are framed — the selected bit of a selected graph (and don't mention the fastest warming region on the planet being left out of that data set), or the complete passing over of short term variability vs longer term trends, or the other measures and indicators of climate change from ocean heat content and sea levels to changes in ice sheets and minimum sea ice levels, or the passing over of issues like lag time between emissions and effects on temperatures... etc..

Cawley, 4.35 (± 1.16), Statistical (Same as July) This is a purely statistical method (related to Krigging) to estimate the long term trend from previous observations of September Arctic sea ice extent.

Jonathan Bamber, director of the Bristol Glaciology Centre at the University of Bristol, UK, says: «We have already seen an unusually early start to melting around the margins of Greenland in 2016 and the new findings from NSIDC of exceptionally low sea ice extent for May and the lowest Northern Hemisphere snow cover in April for 50 years is in line with the longer - term, decadal trends for the Arctic as a whole,» said

---- Cerrone and Fusco, 2017 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0184.1 Compelling evidence indicates that the large increase in the SH [Southern Hemisphere] sea ice, recorded over recent years, arises from the impact of climate modes and their long — term trends.

After the maximum was reached, the trend line flattened, with sea ice volume going down by a meagre 91 km3 from the 16th to the end of the month, which can clearly be seen on Wipneus» version of the PIOMAS graph:

The examination of variability ranging from seasonal to interdecadal scales, and of trends within the climate patterns and total Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) for the 32 — yr period (1982 — 2013) are the key focuses of this paper.

The most likely explanation for the linear trend [in sea ice decline] during the satellite era from 1979 onwards is the almost linear increase in CO2 concentration during that period.

However, there remains uncertainty in the rate of sea ice loss, with the models that most accurately project historical sea ice trends currently suggesting nearly ice - free conditions sometime between 2021 and 2043 (median 2035).12 Uncertainty across all models stems from a combination of large differences in projections among different climate models, natural climate variability, and uncertainty about future rates of fossil fuel emissions.

In an international collaborative project, Jochen Knies has studied the trend in the sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean from 5.3 to 2.6 million years ago.

Cawley, 4.27 (± 1.15), Statistical (Same as June) This is a purely statistical method (Gaussian Process, related to Kriging) to estimate the long - term trend from previous observations of September Arctic sea ice extent.

The composite record show large sea ice variations around a small negative trend since 1900, although the trend from a statistical point of view is not significant (Polyakov et al. 2003).

The departures of September sea ice from the trend line are averaged for those five years, and that average is our forecast (departure from trend line) for 2016.

Dr Meier:» There are increasing trends in Antarctic sea ice extent, but they are fairly small and there is so much variability in the Antarctic sea ice from year to year that is difficult to ascribe any significance to the trends — they could simply be an artifact of natural variability»

Of course, we all know that Arctic sea ice has been on a downward trend since satellite records started in 1979, reversing a growing trend from the 1940s to the 1970s, which was observed by other means by mostly Russian records.

But I'd bet that the increase in Arctic sea ice reported by Russian studies from the 1940s to the1970s had something to do with the cooling trend over those years, while the sea ice retreat since 1979 had something to do with the more recent warming trend there.

«Many of the events that made 2012 such an interesting year are part of the long - term trends we see in a changing and varying climate — carbon levels are climbing, sea levels are rising, Arctic sea ice is melting, and our planet as a whole is becoming a warmer place,» said Acting NOAA Administrator Kathryn D. Sullivan, Ph.D. «This annual report is well - researched, well - respected, and well - used; it is a superb example of the timely, actionable climate information that people need from NOAA to help prepare for extremes in our ever - changing environment.»

The derived 20 year trend in sea ice extent from the monthly deviations is 11.18 ± 4.19 x 103 km2yr - 1 or 0.98 ± 0.37 % (decade)-1 for the entire Antarctic sea ice cover, which is significantly positive.