He also does a much better job of explaining the issues than a previous Guardian article about Arctic
sea ice volume which we were recently somewhat critical of.
PIOMAS has been used in a wide range of applications but arguably the most popular product has been the time series of total Arctic
sea ice volume which we have been putting out since March 2010 (see also Fig 1).
Not exact matches
Sea ice volume measurements,
which take
ice thickness into account, also hit a record low this year.
Writing in Nature Climate Change, two scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) say the melting of quite a small
volume of
ice on the East Antarctic shore could ultimately trigger a discharge of
ice into the ocean
which would result in unstoppable
sea - level rise for thousands of years ahead.
Furthermore, Prof. Slingo rejected data
which shows a decline in Arctic
sea ice volume of 75 % and also rejected the possibility that further decreases may cause an immediate collapse of
ice cover.
Clearly, the
sea ice volume data plot is the single most important topic of discussion, yet in the article it is shown in Figure 1 with a poor vertical scale and amongst linear trend lines
which mislead and make the curve appear to be linear and reach the zero point far out in the future.
Sea ice volume measurements,
which take
ice thickness into account, also hit a record low this year.
Sea ice extent, thickness and
volume are all normal, yet the Flat Earth Society of climate scientists drones on endlessly about an
ice - free Arctic —
which they will never live to see.
LIg global temperature was about 1.6 + / -0.5 C higher than pre-industrial temperature and
sea level peaked 6 — 9 m above the present level,
which implies a 10 — 15 %
ice -
volume reduction relative to present.
It sounds like you have no clue about the details of
sea ice loss over the past few decades, nor the most critical of all the metrics — see
ice volume,
which is directly impacted by the warmth of both the ocean water as well as the atmosphere.
However, our monthly
sea ice volumes calculated from NRT and standard data agree to within 0.5 % on average,
which shows that the NRT data allow us provide users with a reliable operational thickness and
volume product.
As a layman (
which probably 99 % of us are on the topic of
sea ice) and trying to learn something — it appears that people who are posting are sometimes not distinguishing between (1) surface area and (2)
volume (surface area plus depth of old
ice).
In the end, total
sea ice volume grew by 373 km3 during April,
which is the largest increase in the 2007 - 2018 period, almost 200 km3 above average.
After the maximum was reached, the trend line flattened, with
sea ice volume going down by a meagre 91 km3 from the 16th to the end of the month,
which can clearly be seen on Wipneus» version of the PIOMAS graph:
«In fact, the September
sea ice volume is already down 75 % with a trend to zero by September 2016, suggests that the Arctic is heading for complete meltdown,
which would be a planetary catastrophe,» Ibid.
For everyone who did not monitor the Polar sat pictures, the regular Mid-April clouding over of most of the Arctic Ocean has happened, that was and is good news, it is a slow starter, but from a second lowest maximum
volume,
sea ice needs all the good news it can get,
which will likely not come until mid June onwards, for a little while.
All of these characteristics (except for the ocean temperature) have been used in SAR and TAR IPCC (Houghton et al. 1996; 2001) reports for model - data inter-comparison: we considered as tolerable the following intervals for the annual means of the following climate characteristics
which encompass corresponding empirical estimates: global SAT 13.1 — 14.1 °C (Jones et al. 1999); area of
sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere 6 — 14 mil km2 and in the Southern Hemisphere 6 — 18 mil km2 (Cavalieri et al. 2003); total precipitation rate 2.45 — 3.05 mm / day (Legates 1995); maximum Atlantic northward heat transport 0.5 — 1.5 PW (Ganachaud and Wunsch 2003); maximum of North Atlantic meridional overturning stream function 15 — 25 Sv (Talley et al. 2003),
volume averaged ocean temperature 3 — 5 °C (Levitus 1982).
Reynolds (Public), 4.06 (3.49 - 4.63), Statistical / Heuristic Because the decline in extent is due to increasing ease with
which open water can be revealed by declining
volume, a simple method is used to predict September
sea ice extent based on May
sea ice volume for the Arctic Ocean from the PIOMAS model.
However, the uncertainty in the reconstructed
sea level is tens of metres and the uncertainty in the Mg / Ca temperature is sufficient to encompass the result from our δ18O prescription,
which has comparable contributions of
ice volume change and deep ocean temperature change at the Late Eocene glaciation of Antarctica.
That's the case in Antarctica,
which is geographically very different to the Arctic, where an increase in surface
sea ice area, but not total
volume, is currently being observed due to increased precipitation and increased surface water run off.
JC says «There are three main theories for the recent decline in
sea ice extent and
volume,» gives the three, but gives no program for testing
which theory is true.
(Although it figures to be a short - lived normal, given the rate at
which Arctic
sea ice volumes are dropping: more and more scientists are saying that an
ice - free Arctic summer is likely within a couple of decades or so.
They determined, however, that this
volume had now increased by a further 3 cubic miles each year, prompted by an acceleration in the rate at
which the
ice caps and glaciers are melting.Unlike what many other scientists have said — including, most prominently, NASA's James Hansen (who believes that a rise in 17 inches by 2100 will be mainly precipitated by the melting of
ice sheets)-- the authors of this study believe that the loss of
ice from glaciers and
ice caps will account for the majority of the expected rise in
sea levels.
Stroeve said that
sea ice volume,
which incorporates measurements of
ice extent as well as thickness, is a more important metric than
sea ice extent alone.
The Last Interglacial was also a period with higher global
sea - level and a corresponding reduction in
ice sheet area and
volume,
which are consistent with IPCC predictions for responses to future global warming.