In addition we work on
regional sea level projections which take into account regional differences in sea level rise, caused e.g. by the gravity effect of shrinking ice sheets.
The combination of predicted astronomical tides with projected weather forcing, El Niño related variability, and secular SLR, gives a series of hourly
sea level projections for 2005 — 2100.
We've done so here for Hansen's 1988 projections, Stefan and colleagues did it for CO2, temperature and
sea level projections from IPCC TAR (Rahmstorf et al, 2007), and IPCC themselves did so in Fig 1.1 of AR4 Chapter 1.
Your characterization of I.P.C.C.
sea level projections doesn't note that the panel expressly excluded the ice - sheet dynamics [discussed in the film by the glaciologist David Vaughan] as a possible (although not necessarily probable) outcome.
When the last round of crazy
high sea level projections were made (Stefan Rahmstorf and his minions) I did exactly that («Estimate of future sea level rise», plus an update.
Khan, in his research paper, Climate change
induced sea level projections for the Pichavaram mangrove region of the Tamilnadu coast, India: A way forward for framing time - based adaptation strategies, looks at how this information can facilitate coastal managers and adaptation planners to frame location - specific and time - based mangrove adaptation strategies to SLR.
John Church, a top IPCC author at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in Australia, told Reuters he did not expect any impact on the IPCC's
core sea level projections, which are not based on past trends.
Under probabilistic
relative sea level projections, while maintaining storm frequency fixed, we estimate a median 40-fold increase (ranging from 1 - to 1314-fold) in the expected annual number of local 100 - year floods for tide - gauge locations along the contiguous US coastline by 2050.
The IPCC AR5 (2015) meanwhile states that although «advances in scientific understanding and capability have resulted in
improved sea level projections....
Likewise for sea level (not shown here), Pielke just shows a single line for each scenario, as if there wasn't a large uncertainty
in sea level projections.
The paper then compares the current rate of sea level rise to the IPCC projections, and finds that they are only consistent for the highest
IPCC sea level projections (Figure 5).
He cautions that the data may be limited by the uncertainty of future tropical storms and
sea level projections.
«The shock for us was that tidal flooding could become the new normal in the next 15 years; we didn't think it would be so soon,» said Melanie Fitzpatrick, one of three researchers at the nonprofit who analyzed tide gauge data and
sea level projections, producing soused prognoses for scores of coastal Americans.
They did mention
a sea level projection, a 1 ′ -3 ′ rise by 2100 probably, (perhaps thinking of the tears shed by then)(I have most of it on vhs somewhere, would find if anyone interested in verification of tone of the meeting, or to find notable quote, and will download report at link for me, have to go to work too soon.)
Therefore, it is intriguing that arguments persist that because only small accelerations are presently evident, the IPCC
sea level projections must be wrong, when in fact the observations over the last 20 years agree closely with the Third Assessment Report and AR4 projections and are statistically consistently with AR5 RCP8.5 projections.
[Jan. 27, 6:00 p.m.: Jason Box has posted a piece explaining why Greenland matters to
sea level projections.]
The ice plug sits on a ridge beneath the East Antarctic Ice Shelf in a region called the Wilkes Basin that has previously been overlooked in
sea level projections, because it has appeared to be stable compared to regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which sits closer to sea level.
Despite higher temperature change projections in this assessment,
the sea level projections are slightly lower, primarily due to the use of improved models which give a smaller contribution from glaciers and ice sheets.
Further, the second study that Easterbrook cited found that Antarctica has actually been melting at a faster rate than that used by the IPCC in determining
its sea level projections.
Global temperature and
sea level projections, AR 5 Technical Summary, page 75.
It presents likely temperature and
sea level projections in relation to the points made in this chapter of Six Degrees.
Coverage spans a wide range of topics, including Ecological Impacts; Advances in Modeling;
Sea Level Projections; Extreme Events; Climate Feedback and Sensitivity; Hydrologic Impact; Effects on Human Health; and Economics and Policy Issues.