«Data from the past helped calibrate our model, and will improve
sea level rise projections under scenarios of future temperature increases,» says Rahmstorf.
Including the effects of physical mechanisms that can quickly increase ice sheet discharge significantly raises
sea level rise projections under high - emission scenarios.
Not exact matches
«In order to understand coastal impacts
under current and future climate and socio - economic conditions, we do not only need robust
projections of mean
sea level rise but also a profound knowledge of present - day and future extreme
sea levels, because these events drive the impacts,» Wahl said.
The Climate Impact Lab's
sea -
level rise projections use a framework that ties together multiple threads of information to assess the probability of local
sea -
level changes around the world,
under different future emissions scenarios.
The rate of
sea -
level rise even
under the lowest
projection would increase the chances of severe flooding on the Texas Gulf Coast from storm surges or other causes from once every five years to once every two years by 2030
under the extreme
projection, and 2060
under the low prediction.
NOAA made six
projections of
sea -
level rise, from low to extreme, and found the global mean
level under the lowest
projection could
rise 2.3 inches by 2020 and 3.5 inches by 2030.
For the Baltic and Arctic coasts,
sea -
level rise projections under some SRES scenarios indicate an increased risk of flooding and coastal erosion after 2050 (Johansson et al., 2004; Meier et al., 2004, 2006; Kont et al., 2007).
Incorporating these processes in some models leads to higher
projections of global mean
sea level rise by the year 2100: 0.26 to 0.98 meters
under RCP 2.6, and 0.93 to 2.43 meters
under RCP 8.5.