The variations in
sea level trends seen here primarily reflect differences in rates and sources of vertical land motion.
Not exact matches
Holgate (2007) showed decadal rates of
sea -
level rise (linear
trends over 10 years), but as we have shown in Rahmstorf et al. (2012), those vary wildly over time simply as a result of sampling noise and are not consistent across different data sets (
see Fig. 2 of our paper).
This is because, from the discussion above, we would expect to
see sea level changes, since global temperatures do seem to have changed over the last century (whether the temperature
trends are man - made or natural in origin).
Update (26th March 2015): Indeed, a recent paper by Jens Morten Hansen et al. has suggested that, after accounting for the post-glacial rebound effects discussed above, the 18.6 year lunar cycle (and multiples of it) can explain most of the non-linear
trends in the
sea level data for the North Sea and Baltic Sea — see Hansen et al., 2015 (Abstrac
sea level data for the North
Sea and Baltic Sea — see Hansen et al., 2015 (Abstrac
Sea and Baltic
Sea — see Hansen et al., 2015 (Abstrac
Sea —
see Hansen et al., 2015 (Abstract).
Nonetheless, the linear
trends do offer us a crude method of
seeing how global the apparent «global»
sea level rise is.
However, as we have
seen throughout this section, the tidal gauge estimates the IPCC used to estimate global
sea level trends are contaminated by local
trends, such as tectonic activity, post-glacial rebound... and the coastal subsidence that Syvitski et al. identified!
From this it can be
seen that in some places
sea level trend is rising whilst in others it is falling, so giving a global average disguises the nuances of what is happening locally, where it matters.
It doesn't take the UN for them to
see the need for action, but the UN does say
sea level trends are not going down again, so they better not make any bad assumptions about the
trends being temporary, and I think they hear that.
He said severe effects of climate change on water resources could be
seen in shape of changes in precipitation, drastic increasing
trends in temperature, hazardous alteration in period of winter and summer, harmful rising in the
sea level and depletion of groundwater.
«Many of the events that made 2012 such an interesting year are part of the long - term
trends we
see in a changing and varying climate — carbon
levels are climbing,
sea levels are rising, Arctic
sea ice is melting, and our planet as a whole is becoming a warmer place,» said Acting NOAA Administrator Kathryn D. Sullivan, Ph.D. «This annual report is well - researched, well - respected, and well - used; it is a superb example of the timely, actionable climate information that people need from NOAA to help prepare for extremes in our ever - changing environment.»
As the noisy upward
trend in
sea level has remained pretty linear for several generations, including the one since Jim declared a climate crisis back when his grandparents are alive, I expect to
see the sequel to Storms Of My Great - Grandchildren on the remainder tables long before we
see 10 cm of SLR Iterating conjecture is an underwhelming communication strategy in the long run.
There are many tens of thousands of observations of
sea -
level change since the last glacial maximum, the overwhelming
trends recognised in these observations is inconsistent with any significant
sea -
level fluctuations in the last two thousand years (
see for example Lambeck, K., Yokoyama, Y., Purcell, A., 2002.
Putting it into the human - caused «climate change» context, this global mean of long - term
sea level trend has clearly not been a function of the rapidly rising CO2
levels (
see chart's plot of moving 360 - month average of atmospheric CO2
levels).
Indeed, one can
see the piling up of water in the Western tropical Pacific in the
sea level trend over the period of satellite altimetry (1993 - to present)- a clear sign of the intensified winds there.
See E.W. Leuliette, R.S. Nerem, and G.T. Mitchum, «Results of TOPEX / Poseidon and Jason - 1 calibration to construct a continuous record of mean
sea level,» Marine Geodesy 27:79 - 94, 2004, and B.D. Beckley, F.G. Lemoine, S.B. Luthcke, R.D. Ray, and N.P. Zelensky, «A reassessment of global and regional mean
sea level trends from TOPEX and Jason - 1 altimetry based on revised reference frame and orbits,» Geophysical Research Letters 34 (14): L14608, 2007.