In order to use tidal gauges to reliably estimate global sea level changes, researchers have to successfully separate the components of shifting land heights and
local sea level variability from any global trends.
Their method was able to explain about 70 percent of
regional sea level variability on decadal time scales for the West Coast, about 80 percent for the East Coast, and about 45 percent for the Gulf Coast.
A recent paper by Han et al. (2016) reviews our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns
of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual - to - multidecadal timescales.
«This paper is an important reminder that we can not neglect
interannual sea level variability and we need a quantitative understanding of its impact,» John Church, an oceanographer with Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) said in an email.
The researchers found that as external forcing increases in strength over the 21st century,
sea level variability associated with the overturning circulation becomes dominant.
Processes contributing to interannual
steric sea level variability are studied over the period 1993 — 2004 using an observationally - constrained ocean state estimate produced by the ECCO («Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean») consortium.
«[B] y making use of 21 CMIP5 coupled climate models, we study the contribution of external forcing to the Pacific Ocean regional
sea level variability over 1993 — 2013, and show that according to climate models, externally forced and thereby the anthropogenic sea level fingerprint on regional sea level trends in the tropical Pacific is still too small to be observable by satellite altimetry.»
The trend in
greater sea level variability means that many Pacific Island communities should expect not only more frequent and prolonged drops in sea level, but also more frequent high sea level events.
The study demonstrates that observation - based interpretations, highlighting the role of winds in past
regional sea level variability, are not inconsistent with the dominance of AMOC - associated changes in the 21st century.
Proshutinsky, A., I. Ashik, S. Hakkinen, E. Hunke, R. Krishfield, M. Maltrud, W. Maslowski, and J. Zhang,»
Sea level variability in the Arctic Ocean from AOMIP models», J. Geophys Res., 112, C04S08, doi: 10.1029 / 2006JC003916, 2007.
@Marco: You stated: The comment to Table 2 notes: «In general, these historical gauges were designed to monitor
the sea level variability caused by El Niño and shorter - term oceanic fluctuations rather than long - term sea level change, for which a high level of precision and datum control is required.»