But,
sea surface temps in the tropics are tied to incoming solar radiation and not the air above (in fact, the opposite is true).
In reality, there is constant flux
with sea surface temps being at different times and places, cooler and warmer than air temps.
After the Super El Niño, global temperatures achieved a new plateau (see simple anomaly averages - the dashed pink lines), which current monthly variability
of sea surface temps now appear to oscillate around.
«One of the major modes of climate variability is El Niño and when we're in El Niño there's a large area of
warm sea surface temps in the Pacific,» this leads to more precipitation on the West Coast, Crouch said.
Includes all Inland package features plus Wind & Wave Forecasts including the Great Lakes, Marine Zone Forecasts,
Coastal Sea Surface Temps, Buoy data and more.
Includes all of the Coastal package features plus
Offshore Sea Surface Temps, extended Weather, Wind and Wave Forecasts, US & Canadian Alerts.
The home - grown GISS tracker is tuned to match IPCC (2013) RCP8.5 long - term trend (because that's the best match to current emissions trajectory), solar cycle and short - term (9 - month) ONI /
ENSO sea surface temp forecasts, but no accounting for PDO, AMO, AO or NAO.
jim, could you ask plinius on the asif where he is getting these
10c sea surface temps that are going to slip under the peripheral ice and melt it all?
Cool sea surface temps in the north - eastern Pacific to the late 1970's, warm to the late 1990's and a shift to cooler since.
We continue (AFAIK) to have some
high sea surface temps; the troposphere continues at record - or near - record levels; and we may or may not have reached the seasonal maximum yet.
Hurricanes do have a deep surface mixing effect that normal tropical convection doesn't produce, and that would be expected to result in greater transfer of heat to the atmosphere, but it gets complicated in a hurry; see the realclimate discussion of the Walker circulation for example, as well as the link between hurricanes and
sea surface temps.
It's not entirely clear to me whether he's talking about the peak in
sea surface temps or whether he was expecting the January UAH data to have peaked, but February came back and blew January out of the water (so to speak).
A change in Orbit or tilt comes to mind, as does a change in
Sea Surface Temps, but would SST's change both?
Fluctuations in ocean and atmospheric circulation happen on many scales — and include 20 - 30 year regimes in global surface temperature trends — and in
sea surface temps in the eastern Pacific.
Sea surface temp is far more relevant than land temps.
The NOAA data shows that the January - April time period was 0.69 °C above the 20th century average for combined global and
sea surface temps.
Steve, when TREND of UAH - ocean matches SST well, while TREND of UAH - land is considderably colder than ground based land — you just focus on the fact that UAH temps oscillates on very short term more than
sea surface temps?