«Climatologists posit that the recent widening of the tropical belt is primarily caused by multi-decadal
sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean.
Now, a team of climatologists, led by researchers at the University of California, Riverside, posits that the recent widening of the tropical belt is primarily caused by multi-decadal
sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean.
The rainfall variability emerges out of
sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean.
Kandiano, E. S., Bauch, H. A. & Müller, A.
Sea surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic during the last two glacial - interglacial cycles: comparison of faunal, oxygen isotopic, and Mg / Ca - derived records.
Original study: Messié, M. and F.P. Chavez, 2011: Global modes of
sea surface temperature variability in relation to regional climate indices.
Reconstructing twentieth - century
sea surface temperature variability in the southwest Pacific: A replication study using multiple coral Sr / Ca records from New Caledonia.
a) Weichao Wu, Wenbing Tan, Liping Zhou, Huan Yang, Yunping Xu:
Sea surface temperature variability in southern Okinawa Trough during last 2700 years.
One dynamically downscaled IPCC simulation (WRF - MPI - ECHAM5) has a robust representation of Pacific
sea surface temperature variability in the future projection period up to 2040, but the relationship to enhancement of precipitation extremes is not as clear as in observations.
Not exact matches
So this effect could either be the result of natural
variability in Earth's climate, or yet another effect of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases like water vapor trapping more heat and thus warming
sea -
surface temperatures.
But Haris Majeed, a Master's student
in Medical Imaging at U of T's Faculty of Medicine, wondered if long - term climate
variability in sea surface temperatures played a role.
The results suggest that the impact of
sea ice seems critical for the Arctic
surface temperature changes, but the
temperature trend elsewhere seems rather due mainly to changes
in ocean
surface temperatures and atmospheric
variability.
The findings suggest the latitude of the Atlantic jet stream
in summer is influenced by several factors including
sea surface temperatures, solar
variability, and the extent of Arctic
sea - ice, indicating a potential long - term memory and predictability
in the climate system.
In recent years, a brand of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact of extreme events to determine how much — often in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
In recent years, a brand of research called «climate attribution science» has sprouted from this question, examining the impact of extreme events to determine how much — often
in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate change, and how much to natural variability (whether in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
in fractional terms — is related to human - induced climate change, and how much to natural
variability (whether
in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation, sea - surface temperatures, changes in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
in climate patterns such as the El Niño / La Niña - Southern Oscillation,
sea -
surface temperatures, changes
in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors
in incoming solar radiation, or a host of other possible factors).
El Niño is a weather pattern characterized by a periodic fluctuation
in sea surface temperature and air pressure
in the Pacific Ocean, which causes climate
variability over the course of years, sometimes even decades.
Figure 4 - Spatial
variability of the
sea surface temperature (SST) trends scaled with the global
surface air
temperature (SAT) trend for each simulation used
in the study.
Yeh, S. - W., and B.P. Kirtman, 2004: Decadal North Pacific
sea surface temperature variability and the associated global climate anomalies
in a coupled GCM.
At this time the E-W
sea surface temperature gradients
in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans increased [29], [31] intensifying the E-W moisture transport
in the tropics, which greatly increased rainfall
variability both on a precession and an ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) time - scales.
«Multidecadal
variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is observed to relate to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)-- a mode manifesting primarily
in sea surface temperature (SST)
in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic.
Another region of
sea surface temperature (SST)
variability that impacts on Australian climate is located
in the Indian Ocean.
DelSole et al 2011 provide a convenient figure (top of post) summarizing the spatial structure of low frequency
variability of
sea surface temperature in an ensemble of GCMs.
The evolution of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
variability can be characterized by various ocean - atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related
sea surface temperature (SST)
variability on the low - level wind and
surface heat fluxes
in the equatorial tropical Pacific, which
in turn affects the evolution of the SST.
Offshore, mean monthly
sea surface temperatures range from 15.4 °C to 20.1 °C [3], but
in the nearshore upwelling region,
variability is greater and
temperatures range from 10 °C to 18 °C [4].
For example, let's say that evidence convinced me (
in a way that I wasn't convinced previously) that all recent changes
in land
surface temperatures and
sea surface temperatures and atmospheric
temperatures and deep
sea temperatures and
sea ice extent and
sea ice volume and
sea ice density and moisture content
in the air and cloud coverage and rainfall and measures of extreme weather were all directly tied to internal natural
variability, and that I can now see that as the result of a statistical modeling of the trends as associated with natural phenomena.
Previous studies have found it to be well correlated with the low - frequency variations
in the North Atlantic
sea surface temperature associated with the Atlantic multidecadal
variability (AMV).
A new methodology (combined Pacific
variability mode) is developed to objectively analyze how climate change may be synergistically interacting with Pacific
sea surface temperature associated warm season teleconnections
in North America.
They found a 60 - to 90 - year cycle
in Barents and Greenland
seas ice extent related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO); the AMO is a basin - wide cycle of
sea surface temperature variability similar to the El Niño and La Niña cycles
in the Pacific, but varying over much longer periods.
They are largest
in regions of high
sea surface temperature variability such as the western boundary currents and along the northern boundary of the Southern Ocean.
To what extent changes
in other external forcings (e.g., midlatitude
sea -
surface temperature anomalies, solar
variability, etc.) impact the annular modes is less clear.
They write
in their abstract: «The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), defined as the leading empirical orthogonal function of North Pacific
sea surface temperature anomalies, is a widely used index for decadal
variability.
''... worked with two sediment cores they extracted from the seabed of the eastern Norwegian
Sea, developing a 1000 - year proxy
temperature record «based on measurements of δ18O
in Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, a planktonic foraminifer that calcifies at relatively shallow depths within the Atlantic waters of the eastern Norwegian Sea during late summer,» which they compared with the temporal histories of various proxies of concomitant solar activity... This work revealed, as the seven scientists describe it, that «the lowest isotope values (highest temperatures) of the last millennium are seen ~ 1100 - 1300 A.D., during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and again after ~ 1950 A.D.» In between these two warm intervals, of course, were the colder temperatures of the Little Ice Age, when oscillatory thermal minima occurred at the times of the Dalton, Maunder, Sporer and Wolf solar minima, such that the δ18O proxy record of near - surface water temperature was found to be «robustly and near - synchronously correlated with various proxies of solar variability spanning the last millennium,» with decade - to century - scale temperature variability of 1 to 2 °C magnitude.&raqu
in Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, a planktonic foraminifer that calcifies at relatively shallow depths within the Atlantic waters of the eastern Norwegian
Sea during late summer,» which they compared with the temporal histories of various proxies of concomitant solar activity... This work revealed, as the seven scientists describe it, that «the lowest isotope values (highest
temperatures) of the last millennium are seen ~ 1100 - 1300 A.D., during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and again after ~ 1950 A.D.»
In between these two warm intervals, of course, were the colder temperatures of the Little Ice Age, when oscillatory thermal minima occurred at the times of the Dalton, Maunder, Sporer and Wolf solar minima, such that the δ18O proxy record of near - surface water temperature was found to be «robustly and near - synchronously correlated with various proxies of solar variability spanning the last millennium,» with decade - to century - scale temperature variability of 1 to 2 °C magnitude.&raqu
In between these two warm intervals, of course, were the colder
temperatures of the Little Ice Age, when oscillatory thermal minima occurred at the times of the Dalton, Maunder, Sporer and Wolf solar minima, such that the δ18O proxy record of near -
surface water
temperature was found to be «robustly and near - synchronously correlated with various proxies of solar
variability spanning the last millennium,» with decade - to century - scale
temperature variability of 1 to 2 °C magnitude.»
wind and ocean
surface currents are as much or possibly even more important than
temperature in driving
sea ice
variability.
The research will be directed toward using a combined observational and modeling approach to investigate the nature and cause of the Congo rainfall
variability in the 20st century, with an emphasis on the role of global
sea surface temperatures.
Importantly, the changes
in cereal yield projected for the 2020s and 2080s are driven by GHG - induced climate change and likely do not fully capture interannual precipitation
variability which can result
in large yield reductions during dry periods, as the IPCC (Christensen et al., 2007) states: ``... there is less confidence
in the ability of the AOGCMs (atmosphere - ocean general circulation models) to generate interannual
variability in the SSTs (
sea surface temperatures) of the type known to affect African rainfall, as evidenced by the fact that very few AOGCMs produce droughts comparable
in magnitude to the Sahel droughts of the 1970s and 1980s.»
The one off California seems to have a very strong influence as well and yes, the
variability in sea surface temperature in the northern tropical Pacific is more extreme than the
variability to the south.
Decadal variations
in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation are characterized by a pattern of
sea surface temperature anomalies that resemble the central Pacific El Niño, a dominant mode of interannual
variability with far - reaching effects on global climate patterns5, 6, 7.
«Causes of differences
in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates» «Comparing tropospheric warming
in climate models and satellite data» «Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean
sea surface temperatures» «Coverage bias
in the HadCRUT4
temperature series and its impact on recent
temperature trends» «Reconciling warming trends» «Natural
variability, radiative forcing and climate response
in the recent hiatus reconciled» «Reconciling controversies about the «global warming hiatus»»
Tourre, Y. M., Y. Kushnir, and W. B. White, 1999: Evolution of interdecadal
variability in sea level pressure,
sea surface temperature, and upper ocean
temperature over the Pacific Ocean.
The large interannual to decadal hydroclimatic
variability in winter precipitation is highly influenced by
sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies
in the tropical Pacific Ocean and associated changes
in large - scale atmospheric circulation patterns [16].
Over these shorter periods, there are many modes of climate
variability, usually involving semi-structured oscillations
in sea surface temperatures, like the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, and so on.
A key aspect concerns the enigmatic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a feature defined by a 60 - to 90 - year
variability in North Atlantic
sea -
surface temperatures.
Published
in the Journal of Climate, authors Richard Seager and Martin Hoerling cleverly used climate models forced by
sea surface temperatures to separate how much of the past century's North American droughts have been caused by ocean
temperatures, natural
variability, and humans.
Regional circulation patterns have significantly changed
in recent years.2 For example, changes
in the Arctic Oscillation can not be explained by natural variation and it has been suggested that they are broadly consistent with the expected influence of human - induced climate change.3 The signature of global warming has also been identified
in recent changes
in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a pattern of
variability in sea surface temperatures in the northern Pacific Ocean.4
Most
variability in cloud is anti-correlated to
sea surface temperature.
In a new paper, researchers conclude that changes in sensible heat transfer and evaporation fluxes — in response to strong regional trends in the air - surface temperature contrast related to the changing character of the sea ice cover — are becoming increasingly consequential to Arctic climate variability and chang
In a new paper, researchers conclude that changes
in sensible heat transfer and evaporation fluxes — in response to strong regional trends in the air - surface temperature contrast related to the changing character of the sea ice cover — are becoming increasingly consequential to Arctic climate variability and chang
in sensible heat transfer and evaporation fluxes —
in response to strong regional trends in the air - surface temperature contrast related to the changing character of the sea ice cover — are becoming increasingly consequential to Arctic climate variability and chang
in response to strong regional trends
in the air - surface temperature contrast related to the changing character of the sea ice cover — are becoming increasingly consequential to Arctic climate variability and chang
in the air -
surface temperature contrast related to the changing character of the
sea ice cover — are becoming increasingly consequential to Arctic climate
variability and change.
Other researchers are investigating
variability in the Pacific Ocean, including a measure of
sea surface temperatures known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
Jacox M. G., M. A. Alexander, C. A. Stock and G. Hervieux (March 2017): On the skill of seasonal
sea surface temperature forecasts
in the California Current System and its connection to ENSO
variability.
The PDO does not represent the multidecadal
variability in the
sea surface temperatures of the North Pacific.
Recent studies show that global high - resolution models have remarkable skill
in simulating the interannual
variability in cyclone counts, implicating strong control by
sea surface temperatures patterns.
Thus,
in numerical weather prediction out to a mere few days, one tends to neglect the intrinsic
variability of the oceans and concentrates on the atmosphere, with
sea surface temperatures prescribed as a boundary condition; the
sea surface temperature field can either be kept constant
in time or allowed to vary
in some prescribed manner, e.g., according to a diurnal cycle.
Natural
Variability Doesn't Account for Observed
Temperature Increase In it's press release announcement, NASA points out that while there are other factors than greenhouse gases contributing to the amount of warming observed — changes in the sun's irradiance, oscillations of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, changes in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed
Temperature Increase
In it's press release announcement, NASA points out that while there are other factors than greenhouse gases contributing to the amount of warming observed — changes in the sun's irradiance, oscillations of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, changes in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed since 188
In it's press release announcement, NASA points out that while there are other factors than greenhouse gases contributing to the amount of warming observed — changes
in the sun's irradiance, oscillations of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, changes in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed since 188
in the sun's irradiance, oscillations of
sea surface temperatures in the tropics, changes in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed since 188
in the tropics, changes
in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed since 188
in aerosol levels
in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed since 188
in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the
temperature increases observed
temperature increases observed since 1880.