Cool
sea surface temps in the north - eastern Pacific to the late 1970's, warm to the late 1990's and a shift to cooler since.
«One of the major modes of climate variability is El Niño and when we're in El Niño there's a large area of warm
sea surface temps in the Pacific,» this leads to more precipitation on the West Coast, Crouch said.
But,
sea surface temps in the tropics are tied to incoming solar radiation and not the air above (in fact, the opposite is true).
Not exact matches
Hi Andrew, Paper you may have, but couldn't find on «The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature» CO2 lagging
temp change, which really turns the entire AGW argument on its head: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658 Highlights: ► Changes
in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11 — 12 months behind changes
in global
sea surface temperature ► Changes
in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes
in human emissions.
The
sea is
in a constant state of flux, so the
temp at the
surface is very close to that at 100».
This means that, e.g., if heat moves from the tropical
surface water (
temp about 25C) to
surface waters at lower
temps, the net effect is a subsidence of
sea level — even without any change
in total heat content.
As pointed out
in the post, increasing
sea surface temps due to GW is a necessary, if not a sufficient cause for increased TC intensity and frequency.
Hurricanes do have a deep
surface mixing effect that normal tropical convection doesn't produce, and that would be expected to result
in greater transfer of heat to the atmosphere, but it gets complicated
in a hurry; see the realclimate discussion of the Walker circulation for example, as well as the link between hurricanes and
sea surface temps.
There is good evidence that the answer to both these question is no: (The insensitivy of the results to methodology of selecting rural stations, the Parker et al windy days study, and the fact that data from satellite skin
surface measurements, from
sea surface temperatures, deep ocean
temps as we as tropospheric
temps are all
in good agreement).
(> 70 % of the Pale Blue Dot is covered
in H2O, so
sea surface temps can swamp land
surface temps, even tho the latter may «outnumber» the former by orders of magnitude.)
It's not entirely clear to me whether he's talking about the peak
in sea surface temps or whether he was expecting the January UAH data to have peaked, but February came back and blew January out of the water (so to speak).
The following question that you posed is a good question: Is there a regime change
in the Pacific or are 2015/16
sea surface temps — and resultant biological responses — just an excursion
in a highly variable, complex and poorly understood system?
A change
in Orbit or tilt comes to mind, as does a change
in Sea Surface Temps, but would SST's change both?
There are still issues with coverage
in surface air
temps and
sea surface temps.
Combine the satellite trend with the
surface observations and the umpteen non-temperature based records that reflect temperature change (from glaciers to phenology to lake freeze dates to snow - cover extent
in spring & fall to
sea level rise to stratospheric
temps) and the evidence for recent gradual warming is, well, unequivocal.
Is there a regime change
in the Pacific or are 2015/16
sea surface temps — and resultant biological responses — just an excursion
in a highly variable, complex and poorly understood system?
THERE HAS BEEN A WARMING TREND FROM THE 70s THRU THE LATE 90s,... accompanied by other changes tied to a warming trend (record low arctic
sea ice extent & thickness, retreating glaciers, retreating snow lines, warming ocean
surface temps, increases
in sea height, de-alkalinizing oceans).
It is your icons
in the «climate science consensus» community that pushed supposedly global
surface air temperatures (occasionally combined with supposedly global
sea surface temps) as «Global Average Temperature.»
2) The satellite tropospheric and
sea surface (SST) data differ from the HADCRUT
surface temp anomaly, with the present temperatures of both right at the same level as
in 1991 (while Fig. 1 here shows an increase over 1991 of about 0.25 °C).
But it actually makes sense: El Ninos raise atmospheric
temps because a deep pool of warm water
in the western Pacific gets spread out over a larger area, raising
sea surface temperatures over a big chunk of the Pacific.
In reality, there is constant flux with
sea surface temps being at different times and places, cooler and warmer than air
temps.
We have only tiny, slow increases
in surface temps and tiny, slow increases
in sea level rise, which have never ever been a problem for the inhabitants of the earth to deal with.
Hi Andrew, Paper you may have, but couldn't find on «The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature» CO2 lagging
temp change, which really turns the entire AGW argument on its head: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658 Highlights: ► Changes
in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11 — 12 months behind changes
in global
sea surface temperature ► Changes
in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes
in human emissions.
In a crude sense, to the extent that GCMs either replicate an AMO - like phenomenon, or produce large but nonperiodic fluctuations in sea - surface temps (AMO - like in size but not periodicity), then implicitly, the alternative hypothes in those studies (a world without global warming) has a lot more variation in it than this study doe
In a crude sense, to the extent that GCMs either replicate an AMO - like phenomenon, or produce large but nonperiodic fluctuations
in sea - surface temps (AMO - like in size but not periodicity), then implicitly, the alternative hypothes in those studies (a world without global warming) has a lot more variation in it than this study doe
in sea -
surface temps (AMO - like
in size but not periodicity), then implicitly, the alternative hypothes in those studies (a world without global warming) has a lot more variation in it than this study doe
in size but not periodicity), then implicitly, the alternative hypothes
in those studies (a world without global warming) has a lot more variation in it than this study doe
in those studies (a world without global warming) has a lot more variation
in it than this study doe
in it than this study does.
I understand the Atlantic hurricanes are born if a)
sea surface temp exceeds 27 deg
in a rather thick layer; b) there is little wind shear and c) there is a suitable seminal thunderstorm cluster moving westward
in the Intertropical Convection Zone (ITCZ) over the equatorial Atlantic.
There is a massive drop
in temperatures from the
surface of the
sea to the underlying depths
in the tropics and virtually none
in the polar areas,
in fact a lot of the polar
surface temps are at or below zero.
The thermal expansion coefficient of
sea water (
in units of 10 ^ -7 / °C) ranges from 254 (at
surface / -2 °C) to 1269 (at ~ 2000m / 2 °C) with higher values with increasing
temps (especially at the
surface).