***** As coral on Great Barrier Reef bleaches for second year in a row, a reminder of
sea temperature trends in the region.
Figures (a) and (b) show combined land and
sea temperature trends since 1860 for the northern and southern hemispheres respectively.
Not exact matches
Several studies linked this to changes in
sea surface
temperatures in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans, but it was not clear if this was part of a long - term
trend.
The government dataset, called the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Extended Reconstructed
Sea Surface Temperature version 4, increased the sea surface temperature trend estimate over the last 18 years from 0.07 ° Celsius per decade to 0.12 ° Celsius per decade, partly because of adjustments for different types of measuring instrumen
Sea Surface
Temperature version 4, increased the sea surface temperature trend estimate over the last 18 years from 0.07 ° Celsius per decade to 0.12 ° Celsius per decade, partly because of adjustments for different types of measuring i
Temperature version 4, increased the
sea surface temperature trend estimate over the last 18 years from 0.07 ° Celsius per decade to 0.12 ° Celsius per decade, partly because of adjustments for different types of measuring instrumen
sea surface
temperature trend estimate over the last 18 years from 0.07 ° Celsius per decade to 0.12 ° Celsius per decade, partly because of adjustments for different types of measuring i
temperature trend estimate over the last 18 years from 0.07 ° Celsius per decade to 0.12 ° Celsius per decade, partly because of adjustments for different types of measuring instruments.
The results suggest that the impact of
sea ice seems critical for the Arctic surface
temperature changes, but the
temperature trend elsewhere seems rather due mainly to changes in ocean surface
temperatures and atmospheric variability.
Too much debate treats
temperature (and especially the most recent global average) as the sole indicator, whereas many other factors are at play including
sea levels, ocean acidity, ice sheets, ecosystem
trends, and many more.
Just as the underlying change in
sea level is swamped by the daily and monthly changes, so the annual variation in global
temperature masks any underlying
trends.
Sea surface
temperatures were warmer this past summer also; I forget how many standard deviations the
temperature was off the
trend, but it was definitely anomalous.
While at single buoys the water may have warmed faster or slower than other locations, globally, there is a clear
trend toward higher
sea surface
temperatures.
Trending increases in certain environmental conditions that brew up these storms: increased
sea surface and upper ocean
temperatures and atmospheric instability.
Figure 4 - Spatial variability of the
sea surface
temperature (SST)
trends scaled with the global surface air
temperature (SAT)
trend for each simulation used in the study.
Figure 1 -
Sea surface
temperature trends scaled with global surface air
temperature trends for half the climate models used in the study.
(1) The warm
sea surface
temperatures are not just some short - term anomaly but are part of a long - term observed warming
trend, in which ocean
temperatures off the US east coast are warming faster than global average
temperatures.
Since the mid 1970's, global estimates of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes show an upward
trend strongly correlated with increasing tropical
sea - surface
temperature.
You hear about the
sea ice absent the
temperature trend.
«Environmental scientists have been saying for some time that the global economy is being slowly undermined by environmental
trends of human origin, including shrinking forests, expanding deserts, falling water tables, eroding soils, collapsing fisheries, rising
temperatures, melting ice, rising
seas, and increasingly destructive storms,» 6.
Increased
temperature leads to increased evaporation from the
sea, and thus to higher absolute humidity (assuming fixed relative humidity), and since H2O molecules are even more effective infrared absorbers than CO 2 molecules, the warming
trend is reinforced.
Dan (# 52) also points out that the very same
trends which we are seeing on land are showing up in
temperature records at
sea and the atmosphere, and as Spencer (# 1) points out, in boreholes, and as I have pointed out, in the ocean depths down to 1500 meters.
BTW, my fearless «denialism forecast» for the next month is for declining mentions of surface
temperature trends, 30 - 50 % chance of more scientist bashing, and sporadic outbreaks of «Arctic
sea ice recovery» — at least until the melting season gathers some steam.
B. Takes an adjustment to
sea temperatures in a defined period and implies that it impacts the global mean
temperatures trend estimates over the entire twentieth century.
Like almost all historical climate data, ship - board
sea surface
temperatures (SST) were not collected with long term climate
trends in mind.
«The treatment of the buoy
sea - surface
temperature (SST) data was guaranteed to put a warming
trend in recent data.
These results suggest that
sea surface
temperature pattern - induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed
trends are probably biased low 4.
Tropical corals are particularly at risk from bleaching, due to higher than average
sea temperature, and from calcium carbonate skeleton dissolution as a result of lowering
sea pH. It is estimated that up to 50 % of coral may be killed by 2030 under present
trends.
If you look the same
trend in Siberia, Northern Canada or
Sea at 80th parallel, all of them show a strong amplification and push the average of North pole
temperature increasing.
According to the investigation: «There is a strong increasing
trend in
sea surface
temperature over the northern Indian Ocean during the 1952 - 96 time period» and «Soot was a sizeable fraction of the aerosol mix and caused substantial absorption of solar radiation.
Here are some possible choices — in order of increasing sophistication: * All (or most) scientists agree (the principal Gore argument) * The 20th century is the warmest in 1000 years (the «hockeystick» argument) * Glaciers are melting,
sea ice is shrinking, polar bears are in danger, etc * Correlation — both CO2 and temperature are increasing * Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global temperature * Modeled and observed PATTERNS of temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years ag
sea ice is shrinking, polar bears are in danger, etc * Correlation — both CO2 and
temperature are increasing *
Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global temperature * Modeled and observed PATTERNS of temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years ag
Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global
temperature * Modeled and observed PATTERNS of
temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years agree
If those
trends continue, it puts the world on track for the highest predicted rises in
temperature and
sea level.
== Post # 65 by Dan: == ==» The warming
trends are shown by ocean
temperatures,
sea - level rise, glacier retreats, satellite measurements, etc..
The warming
trends are shown by ocean
temperatures,
sea - level rise, glacier retreats, satellite measurements, etc..
Not that this yet constitutes a
trend of course, but the relationship between warming Pacific / Atlantic
sea surface
temperatures & Amazonian drought is apparent.
The link between the NAO and the Gulf Stream seems to be confirmed, as there is a cooling
trend visible of the
sea surface
temperatures in the stream over the past years.
A significant northward
trend (reduction of ice) in the winter - maximum ice edge is apparent, however, and appears to be caused by the gradual warming of
sea - surface
temperatures in the region (paper available on this if you want it).
In particular, would anyone question that the observed
trends in
sea surface
temperature in all basins can be attributed to anthropogenic global warming?
There are certainly better indicators of global warming
trends — ice sheet volume,
sea ice extent and
sea surface
temperatures all come to mind — but hurricanes get people's attention.
One thing I would have liked to see in the paper is a quantitative side - by - side comparison of
sea - surface
temperatures and upper ocean heat content; all the paper says is that only «a small amount of cooling is observed at the surface, although much less than the cooling at depth» though they do report that it is consistent with 2 - yr cooling SST
trend — but again, no actual data analysis of the SST
trend is reported.
Here we analyze a series of climate model experiments along with observational data to show that the recent warming
trend in Atlantic
sea surface
temperature and the corresponding trans - basin displacements of the main atmospheric pressure centers were key drivers of the observed Walker circulation intensification, eastern Pacific cooling, North American rainfall
trends and western Pacific
sea - level rise.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global
trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while
sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the
sea prevents much
temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
So the main issue for me is that all «serious» studies show only «statistical
trends» having some effects on some measurable quantities, (slight increase of average
temperature, slight increase of
sea level, slight decrease of northern, but not southern,
sea ice,..)
Sea surface
temperatures in the Western Pacific are well above climatology, and it has been argued that the warmth in the Western Pacific along with the lack of an equivalent long - term warming
trend in the Eastern Pacific, increase the chances of a «super El Niño,» comparable to the two strongest El Niños of the past century, which occurred in 1998 and 1983.
But it's also clear that more science clarifying overall
trends in
temperature over a mostly sub-zero continent will have little bearing on what societies choose to do, or not do, related to accumulating greenhouse gases, warming and the resulting rise in
sea levels.
Here we show that the hemispheric differences in
temperature trends in the middle of the twentieth century stem largely from a rapid drop in Northern Hemisphere
sea surface
temperatures of about 0.3 6C between about 1968 and 1972.
The goal, the scientists say, is to compare independent methods of gauging ice
trends from factors including
sea temperature, ice thickness and cycles of atmospheric pressure and winds around the Arctic.
Don Keiller — as others have pointed out, that paper doesn't attempt to address the issue of the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane intensity, or the ongoing increasing
trend of increasing
sea surface
temperatures and atmospheric moisture content.
F. Engelbeen's claim that he only looked at land
temperature trends, while Johannessen e.a. mainly looked at
sea surface
temperatures and ice cover is a Tech Central Station like.
Arctic
sea ice extent continues to
trend toward a record low for 2017 - 18 because of stunning warm
temperatures.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air
Temperature (SAT),
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and
trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predictors.
WMO will issue its full Statement on the State of the Climate in 2017 in March which will provide a comprehensive overview of
temperature variability and
trends, high - impact events, and long - term indicators of climate change such as increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, Arctic and Antarctic
sea ice,
sea level rise and ocean acidification.
Yet it is clear from BoM that
sea surface
temperature trends around Australia broadly match the land
trends, and elsewhere you have asserted that evaporation is part of the «browning» problem.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air
Temperature,
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and
trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predictors.