The Chinese government are like the central bank of
the seaborne coal market.
With China acting as the marginal buyer on
the seaborne coal market, investors should prepare themselves for a world where China is a net exporter.
If the US coal industry succeeds in exporting large quantities of publicly owned coal from the Powder River Basin, where most publicly owned coal is mined, to the Pacific
seaborne coal market, it would have a similar effect, according to an economic analysis from Dr. Thomas Power, «The Greenhouse Gas Impact of Exporting Coal from the West Coast.»
Like many of its peers, Arch made some terrible financial decisions in recent years, including purchasing nearly $ 3.5 billion in new mines at the peak of
a seaborne coal bubble.
CTI's analysis shows that in a low demand scenario
the seaborne coal market will account for an average of 850 million tonnes per year over the next 20 years.
In the IEA report's forecast, Australia takes a growing share of
seaborne coal trade.
With the Chinese market a major driver of coal demand in Asia, any policy changes in the country will affect prices, contributing to the likelihood of continued price volatility in
the seaborne coal market, wrote Wood Mackenzie's principal analyst for mining and metals fundamentals research, Rory Simington in a Nov. 16 report.
Not exact matches
The report further stated that slowing economic growth and energy consumption in China as well as the restriction of
coal use in its coastal regions will impact
seaborne trade, especially Indonesian exports.
Global steel production is expected to increase more than 10 percent in 2010, and global
seaborne metallurgical
coal demand is expected to increase by more than 50 million tonnes.
Most countries have a domestic supply or can easily and affordably access it on the
seaborne market and therefore they have confidence in
coal supply.
At a time when industry analysts laughed at the suggestion, Carbon Tracker was already modelling the impact of Chinese thermal
coal demand peaking on the
seaborne markets.
The companies in aggregate represent 66 % of the global
seaborne market in iron ore, 53 % in copper, 42 % in metallurgical
coal and 28 % in thermal
coal.
One result: the deep structural decline in
seaborne thermal
coal markets.
China could become a net exporter of
coal again before 2020, which would see the
seaborne thermal
coal market weakened again, the report finds.
Seaborne trade in thermal
coal rose to about 690 million tons this year, up from 385 million in 2001.