With the Chinese market a major driver of coal demand in Asia, any policy changes in the country will affect prices, contributing to the likelihood of continued price volatility in
the seaborne coal market, wrote Wood Mackenzie's principal analyst for mining and metals fundamentals research, Rory Simington in a Nov. 16 report.
CTI's analysis shows that in a low demand scenario
the seaborne coal market will account for an average of 850 million tonnes per year over the next 20 years.
If the US coal industry succeeds in exporting large quantities of publicly owned coal from the Powder River Basin, where most publicly owned coal is mined, to the Pacific
seaborne coal market, it would have a similar effect, according to an economic analysis from Dr. Thomas Power, «The Greenhouse Gas Impact of Exporting Coal from the West Coast.»
With China acting as the marginal buyer on
the seaborne coal market, investors should prepare themselves for a world where China is a net exporter.
The Chinese government are like the central bank of
the seaborne coal market.
Not exact matches
Most countries have a domestic supply or can easily and affordably access it on the
seaborne market and therefore they have confidence in
coal supply.
At a time when industry analysts laughed at the suggestion, Carbon Tracker was already modelling the impact of Chinese thermal
coal demand peaking on the
seaborne markets.
The companies in aggregate represent 66 % of the global
seaborne market in iron ore, 53 % in copper, 42 % in metallurgical
coal and 28 % in thermal
coal.
One result: the deep structural decline in
seaborne thermal
coal markets.
China could become a net exporter of
coal again before 2020, which would see the
seaborne thermal
coal market weakened again, the report finds.