Not exact matches
Changes in the oceans occur more slowly than
in the
atmosphere, and this long - term memory of the ocean is a major key to
seasonal and decadal predictions.
Furthermore, while the deep wind is stable,
in the upper
atmosphere the speed and width of the equatorial stream are highly changeable, perhaps due to the
seasonal insolation cycle on Saturn, and their intensity is increased by the
changing shadowing of the rings above the equator.
The TES will also investigate
seasonal changes in the polar ice caps and the distribution of dust and clouds
in the
atmosphere.
Paleoclimatology;
seasonal to millennial scale
changes in ocean /
atmosphere interactions and teleconnections; stable isotope and trace element geochemistry; polar and alpine glaciology
We then perturb this input with the
change in the
seasonal mean SSTs and the
seasonal mean state of the
atmosphere as projected by an ensemble mean of global models for the end of the 21st century.
The first is basically that mentioned by Greg Simpson
in point 7; the
seasonal flux
in biomass seems to exceed the background rate of
change of CO2
in the
atmosphere by a large enough factor that it probably exceeds the total emissions.
The 10 base stations (and the 60 + others) plus regular air flights
in both hemispheres and very recently the AIRS satellite all confirm that for 95 % of the
atmosphere there are
seasonal changes which are largest near ground and
in the NH, but the yearly average trends for all are near identical with an about 12 months delay between the NH and the SH.
That report concludes that
seasonal changes in LOD are due to interaction of the earth's
atmosphere and mantle.
Indeed, this is why I have repeatedly said to you: «Any assessment of the causes of the rise of atmospheric CO2 concentration over a period of years requires assessment of the
changes that occur each year (because the annual increase to CO2
in the
atmosphere is the residual of the
seasonal changes to CO2
in the
atmosphere).»
That happens
in short time periods like
seasonal variations and can be measured as a
change in pCO2 of the oceans, relative to the pCO2 of the
atmosphere.
So far the
seasonal changes of CO2 between biosphere and
atmosphere can not explain the continuous increase rate of CO2
in the
atmosphere — even not a little bit rising rate of the increase.
1) During the time period when CO2 measurements have been made
in Mauna Loa the most visible
changes in the increasing rate of the atmospheric CO2 content are caused by the
seasonal variability
in the exchange rate of CO2 between biosphere and
atmosphere; e.g. Bob Tisdale http://i37.tinypic.com/al6ips.jpg.
We know how
seasonal changes of CO2 emissions and absorptions of biosphere influence CO2 content
in atmosphere.
CAS = Commission for Atmospheric Sciences CMDP = Climate Metrics and Diagnostic Panel CMIP = Coupled Model Intercomparison Project DAOS = Working Group on Data Assimilation and Observing Systems GASS = Global Atmospheric System Studies panel GEWEX = Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment GLASS = Global Land -
Atmosphere System Studies panel GOV = Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) Ocean View JWGFVR = Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research MJO - TF = Madden - Julian Oscillation Task Force PDEF = Working Group on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting PPP = Polar Prediction Project QPF = Quantitative precipitation forecast S2S = Subseasonal to
Seasonal Prediction Project SPARC = Stratospheric Processes and their Role
in Climate TC = Tropical cyclone WCRP = World Climate Research Programme WCRP Grand Science Challenges • Climate Extremes • Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity • Melting Ice and Global Consequences • Regional Sea - Ice
Change and Coastal Impacts • Water Availability WCRP JSC = Joint Scientific Committee WGCM = Working Group on Coupled Modelling WGSIP = Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction WWRP = World Weather Research Programme YOPP = Year of Polar Prediction
Seasonal exchanges are huge: about 20 % of all CO2
in the
atmosphere is exchanged between
atmosphere and other reservoirs over the seasons, but as the exchanges with oceans and vegetation are countercurrent with temperature (vegetation
in the NH dominates), the net result is only some 2 %
change in the
atmosphere over the seasons which is visible
in the Mauna Loa curve.
A recent study by C10 analysed a number of different climate variables
in a set of SMEs of HadCM3 (Gordon et al. 2000,
atmosphere — ocean coupled version of HadSM3) from the point of view of global - scale model errors and climate
change forcings and feedbacks, and compared them with variables derived from the CMIP3 MME. Knutti et al. (2006) examined another SME based on the HadSM3 model, and found a strong relationship between the magnitude of the
seasonal cycle and climate sensitivity, which was not reproduced
in the CMIP3 ensemble.
The first is based on extrapolating
seasonal and interannual
changes based on precise knowledge of today's state of the
atmosphere and ocean combined with an understanding of how the various modes of variability
in the ocean might develop.