Mechoso, C. R., and and Coauthors,, 1995:
The seasonal cycle over the tropical Pacific in coupled ocean — atmosphere general circulation models.
I tested use of the OLR
seasonal cycle over the 30S — 30N latitude zone only, thereby reducing the number of predictor variables to 936 — still a large number, but under 4 % of the 23,976 predictor variables used in BC17.
Mechoso, C.R., et al., 1995:
The seasonal cycle over the tropical Pacific in general circulation model.
Not exact matches
This time frame allowed us to observe
over almost a full
seasonal cycle: we watched Saturn's and Titan's southern hemispheres go from summer to winter and their northern hemispheres go from winter to summer.
Meanwhile, permafrost observers the world
over will take measurements in boreholes at least 30 meters (100 feet) deep — the depth where temperatures do not fluctuate during
seasonal cycles — though some will stretch much deeper.
Rainfall may have been
seasonal, or wet intervals may have occurred
over longer
cycles.
Summer insolation decreased by 0.33 W m — 2 at 45 ° N
over the millennium, winter insolation increased by 0.83 W m — 2 (Goosse et al., 2005a)(Errata), and the magnitude of the mean
seasonal cycle of insolation in the NH decreased by 0.4 W m — 2.
These words are: ECOLOGY, BIOSPHERE, BIOTIC FATORS, ABIOTIC FACTORS, POPULATION, BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITY, BIOME, ORGANISM, HABITAT, NICHE, SYMBIOSIS, PREDATION, MUTUALISM, COMMENSALISM, PARASITISM, AUTOTROPH, HETEROTROPH, HERBIVORE, CARNIVORE, OMNIVORE, DETRITIVORES, TROPHIC LEVEL, FOOD CHAIN, FOOD WEB, BIOMASS, MATTER, NUTRIENT BIOCHEMICAL
CYCLE, NITROGEN FIXATION, DENITRIFICATION, COMMUNITY, LIMITING FACTOR, TOLERANCE, ECOLOGICAL SUCCESSION, PRIMARY SUCCESSION, CLIMAX COMMUNITY, SECONDARY SUCCESSION, TUNDRA, CLIMATE, LATITUDE, WEATHER, BOREAL FOREST, TEMPERATE FOREST, WOODLANDS, GRASSLAND, DESERT, TROPICAL SAVANNA, TROPICAL
SEASONAL FOREST, TROPICAL RAIN FOREST, SEDIMENT, LITTORAL ZONE, PROFUNDAL ZONE, PLANKTON, WETLANDS, ESTUARY, NTERTIDAL ZONE, PHOTIC ZONE, APHOTIC ZONE, BENTHIC ZONE, ABYSSAL ZONE, POPULATION DENSITY, DISPERSION, DENSITY - INDEPENDENT FACTOR, DENSITY - DEPENDENTLY FACTOR, POPULATION GROWTH RATE, EMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION, CARRYING CAPACITY, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSISTIONS, ZERO POPULATION GROWTH, AGE STRUTURE, EXTINCTION, BIODIVERSITY, GENETIC DIVERSITY, SPECIES DIVERSITY, ECOSYSTEM DIVERSITY, BACKGROUND EXTINCTION, MASS EXTINCTION, NATURAL RESOURCES,
OVER EXPLOITATION, HABITAT FRAGMENTATION, BIOLOGICAL MAGNIFICATION, EUTROPHICATION, INTRODUCED SPECIES, RENEWABLE RESOURCES, NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES, NONRENEWABLE RESOURCES, SUSTAINABLE USE, ENDEMIC, BIOLOGICAL AUGMENTATION, BIOREMEDIATION, PRODUCER, CONSUMER, FUNDAMENTAL NICHE, PIONEER SPECIES, REALIZED NICHE, LIMITING FACTOR, PREY, ENERGY PHYRAMIND, PRIMARY CONSUMER, SECONDARY CONSUMER, HOST, GREEN HOUSE EFFECT, POLAR ZONE, TROPICAL ZONE, CANOPY, DECIDUOU, CONIFEROUS, HUMUS
14CO varies by factor of two or more
over the
seasonal cycle, whereas methyl chloroform only varies by a few percent.
(1) You compare a
seasonal cycle (which
over the year integrates out to zero) with a mean flux.
Tuning to the
seasonal cycle, or to the climatological average, or to the variance of some field — which can be well characterised from observations, is different to tuning to a transient change of
over time — which is often less well known.
Second, predictions of
seasonal effects are simple extrapolations of statistical records accumulated in real time
over many generations, and
over many summer / winter
cycles, but we do not have comparable statistical records accumulated in real time
over many
cycles of increasing / decreasing GHGs.
The pattern would respond to externally forced diurnal and
seasonal and orbital - scale
cycles with some lag time from thermal and mechanical and compositional, etc, inertia, but with a constant pattern of heat accumulation and depletion
over each
cycle.
And, that just coincidently, the rate of the rise has consistently been (when averaged
over a few year period to smooth out variability due to
seasonal cycles and other factors) equal to about half of the emissions of CO2 that we are putting into the atmosphere?
By that standard, last week in Rochester we should have stopped preparing for winter given that we had several days of warm temperatures that surely made the temperature trends
over some reasonable time period of a week or more positive rather than negative, as would be expected if this
seasonal cycle theory was real.
Using modern spatiotemporal records of oxygen production and oxygen isotopes in terrestrial precipitation, the authors demonstrate that their proposed relationship is robust
over the modern
seasonal cycle.
Nic, if I understand correctly, you're saying the basic statistical intention of the paper was not achieved; the PLS method as applied apparently improperly weighted predictors as evidenced by the superior skill of a single predictor, OLR
seasonal cycle,
over their group of predictors.
Of course the trend in CO2 is the difference
over a full
seasonal cycle, as I said before, but the
seasonal cycle doesn't cause the trend, doesn't influence the trend and simply has nothing to do with the trend, whatever the real cause of the trend is.
The «difference
over a full
seasonal cycle» is the residual of the
seasonal variation.
The first part of this thesis compares the
seasonal cycle and interannual variability of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite retrievals
over the Northern Hemisphere subtropical Atlantic Ocean, where soil dust aerosols make the largest contribution to the aerosol load, and are assumed to dominate the variability of each data set.
Nicholas, the natural variability after a full
seasonal cycle is only + / - 1 ppmv around the trend
over the past 55 years, which is recently
over 2 ppmv / year net increase with human emissions of around 4.5 ppmv / year.
The only way you get in trouble is if the composition of the network is changing
over time and if you do not remove the underlying climatology /
seasonal cycle through the use of anomalies or similar methods.
Her research focuses on understanding variability and trends in the
seasonal cycle of rainfall
over Africa.
Seems unlikely to make much difference
over large scale averages but wouldn't this be a potential problem for accurate reproduction of more intricate details like
seasonal or diurnal
cycles in individual grid cells or regions?
So is there an excess value for DLR
over L at the tropics when one considers the diurnal
cycle and as one moves away from the tropics, the
seasonal cycle?
Summer insolation decreased by 0.33 W m — 2 at 45 ° N
over the millennium, winter insolation increased by 0.83 W m — 2 (Goosse et al., 2005a)(Errata), and the magnitude of the mean
seasonal cycle of insolation in the NH decreased by 0.4 W m — 2.
I came to think of solar radiation as being the ultimate (and only) external forcing of the climate system, which, except for the orbital
seasonal changes and the 11 - year sunspot
cycle, has been essentially constant
over the past several decades of precision solar irradiance monitoring.
Seasonal cycle Δαs / ΔTs values are the difference between 20th - century mean April and May αs averaged
over Northern Hemisphere continents divided by the difference between April and May Ts averaged
over the same area and time period.
Regonda et al 2005: «
Seasonal Cycle Shifts in Hydroclimatology
over the Western United States» http://civil.colorado.edu/~balajir/my-papers/regonda-etal-jclim.pdf
The latter is determined as a moving average of SEVEN adjacent
seasonal cycles centered on the month to be corrected, except for the first and last THREE and one - half years of the record, where the
seasonal cycle has been averaged
over the first and last SEVEN years, respectively.
It is exactly for the same reason that the temperature trend here in Rochester
over a period of, say, a week or so can be negative in the spring even though there is no denying that the
seasonal cycle is strong here and that the predicted temperature trend in the spring is positive.
CO2 has a
seasonal cycle due to the «breathing» of the biosphere, but is steadily increasing
over the years due to human emissions.