"Seasonal forecasting" refers to predicting weather patterns, conditions, or climate changes that are expected to occur over a specific season, such as summer, autumn, winter, or spring. It helps to anticipate these changes in advance and provides valuable information for planning and decision-making.
Full definition
The ensemble and
seasonal forecast systems use a coupled atmosphere - ocean model, which includes a simulation of the general circulation of the ocean and the associated coupled feedback processes that exist.
The content is divided into six sections, including an introduction, a new and better way, fall predicts winter, new
seasonal forecast model, model accuracy demonstrated, and classroom resources.
The centre also
produces seasonal forecast information for the agriculture sector that can be used, for example, in the calculation of agricultural indices or as input for crop modelling.
Instead of waiting for an event to happen, the idea is to
incorporate seasonal forecasts, which are done a month or more ahead of time, into the climate models.
Analysis suggests that model combination effectively improves most of the
individual seasonal forecasts and can outperform the best forecast model.
The problems here are no better than
for seasonal forecasts of 3 - 6 months, possibly even worse if you want to refine it to months instead of seasons.
The research is timely given the extreme winter of 2017 - 2018, including record warm Arctic and low sea ice, record - breaking polar vortex disruption, record - breaking cold and disruptive snowfalls in the United States and Europe, severe «bomb cyclones» and costly nor'easter s, said Judah Cohen, director of
seasonal forecasting at AER and lead author of the study.
We created cross-validated hindcasts of winter land surface temperatures using the Snow Advance Index as a predictor in the
AER seasonal forecast model and compared those hindcasts with hindcasts using the observed winter AO and ENSO.
Improvements
in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and sea - ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in real time.
ECMWF as the Entrusted Entity for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) is building a Climate Data Store (CDS) that will provide open and free access to quality - assured climate observations, global and regional Essential Climate Variable (ECV) products derived from observations, global and regional climate reanalyses,
seasonal forecast data and model - generated future climate change scenarios.
El Niño is a key factor in making hurricane
seasonal forecasts because the changes in atmospheric patterns over the tropical Pacific that it ushers in have a domino effect on patterns over the Atlantic, tending to suppress hurricane formation.
Alves, O., M.A. Balmaseda, D. Anderson, and T. Stockdale, 2004: Sensitivity of
dynamical seasonal forecast to ocean initial conditions.
ICECAP mentions that D'Aleo has written a number of papers as well as published a book on «advanced applications enabled by new technologies and how research into ENSO and other atmospheric and oceanic phenomena has made
skillful seasonal forecasts possible.»
CNRM (Chevallier et al.), 4.39 (3.45 - 5.03), Modeling (fully - coupled) CNRM outlook is based on the operational
seasonal forecast issued by Météo France in early July 2016 with the System 5 (component of the European multi-model EUROSIP).
The SAI was developed by AER in 2011 through NOAA and NSF research grants as part of AER's continuing efforts to provide the most
accurate seasonal forecasts in the public and private sectors.
McLaren et al. (Met Office Hadley Centre); 5.5 Million Square Kilometers; Modeling Prediction is based on an experimental model prediction from the Met Office Hadley
Centre seasonal forecasting system (GloSea4) that became operational in September 2009.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has recently completed two proof - of - concepts that will make historical data and
seasonal forecasts available to the energy sector, and is now preparing to enter the operational phase of the follow - up services.
For those
following Seasonal forecasts, November was missed completely, and the claim of this pending cold winter will be only valid for small regions, but not for the world, even with stagnant planetary waves.