Sentences with phrase «seasonal forecasts»
"seasonal forecasts" refer to predictions made about the weather and climate patterns that are expected to occur during a particular season. Full definition
The ensemble and seasonal forecast systems use a coupled atmosphere - ocean model, which includes a simulation of the general circulation of the ocean and the associated coupled feedback processes that exist.
ecmwf.int
The content is divided into six sections, including an introduction, a new and better way, fall predicts winter, new seasonal forecast model, model accuracy demonstrated, and classroom resources.
He has published over two dozen articles on seasonal forecasting in their journals and others.
The centre also produces seasonal forecast information for the agriculture sector that can be used, for example, in the calculation of agricultural indices or as input for crop modelling.
Instead of waiting for an event to happen, the idea is to incorporate seasonal forecasts, which are done a month or more ahead of time, into the climate models.
A quick check of the latest seasonal forecast shows there's a lot more rain to come this summer.
Further review of conditions in 2012 will be an important contribution toward seasonal forecasting.
Analysis suggests that model combination effectively improves most of the individual seasonal forecasts and can outperform the best forecast model.
We're talking a simple seasonal forecast not weather — are you that thick — you don't even know do you?
The problems here are no better than for seasonal forecasts of 3 - 6 months, possibly even worse if you want to refine it to months instead of seasons.
The research is timely given the extreme winter of 2017 - 2018, including record warm Arctic and low sea ice, record - breaking polar vortex disruption, record - breaking cold and disruptive snowfalls in the United States and Europe, severe «bomb cyclones» and costly nor'easter s, said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at AER and lead author of the study.
We created cross-validated hindcasts of winter land surface temperatures using the Snow Advance Index as a predictor in the AER seasonal forecast model and compared those hindcasts with hindcasts using the observed winter AO and ENSO.
Dr. Judah Cohen is the Director of Seasonal Forecasting at AER.
Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings.
Improvements in seasonal forecasting practice arising from recent research include accurate initialization of snow and frozen soil, accounting for observational uncertainty in forecast verification, and sea - ice thickness initialization using statistical predictors available in real time.
ECMWF as the Entrusted Entity for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) is building a Climate Data Store (CDS) that will provide open and free access to quality - assured climate observations, global and regional Essential Climate Variable (ECV) products derived from observations, global and regional climate reanalyses, seasonal forecast data and model - generated future climate change scenarios.
El Niño is a key factor in making hurricane seasonal forecasts because the changes in atmospheric patterns over the tropical Pacific that it ushers in have a domino effect on patterns over the Atlantic, tending to suppress hurricane formation.
That wreaked havoc with most leading seasonal forecasts like the one issued by Colorado State University on August 2.
Alves, O., M.A. Balmaseda, D. Anderson, and T. Stockdale, 2004: Sensitivity of dynamical seasonal forecast to ocean initial conditions.
ICECAP mentions that D'Aleo has written a number of papers as well as published a book on «advanced applications enabled by new technologies and how research into ENSO and other atmospheric and oceanic phenomena has made skillful seasonal forecasts possible.»
Official seasonal forecasts issued in April 2012 did not anticipate this widespread severe drought.
CNRM (Chevallier et al.), 4.39 (3.45 - 5.03), Modeling (fully - coupled) CNRM outlook is based on the operational seasonal forecast issued by Météo France in early July 2016 with the System 5 (component of the European multi-model EUROSIP).
The SAI was developed by AER in 2011 through NOAA and NSF research grants as part of AER's continuing efforts to provide the most accurate seasonal forecasts in the public and private sectors.
In particular, no other seasonal forecast got the cold winter of 2010/2011 correct!
McLaren et al. (Met Office Hadley Centre); 5.5 Million Square Kilometers; Modeling Prediction is based on an experimental model prediction from the Met Office Hadley Centre seasonal forecasting system (GloSea4) that became operational in September 2009.
ECMWF has its new version System 4, which will release its first seasonal forecast Nov 8.
Operational use of dynamical downscaling with the RSM and WRF models for seasonal forecasting over GHA.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has recently completed two proof - of - concepts that will make historical data and seasonal forecasts available to the energy sector, and is now preparing to enter the operational phase of the follow - up services.
For those following Seasonal forecasts, November was missed completely, and the claim of this pending cold winter will be only valid for small regions, but not for the world, even with stagnant planetary waves.
This model is very similar to the ECMWF seasonal forecasting model.