Projected change in
seasonal precipitation for 2071 - 2099 (compared to 1970 - 1999) under an emissions scenario that assumes continued increases in emissions.
At the end of February,
seasonal precipitation for the 2008 Water Year, which began on October 1, 2007, was well above average over much of the West.
It may happen that one of the models hind - casts correctly one of the parameters of interest for one the seasons, but never all significant parameters like the min and max temperatures and
the seasonal precipitations for all seasons.
Not exact matches
«This is one of the most representative records of
precipitation changes in the eastern Pacific, and it goes a good way toward explaining
seasonal tropical rain band and El Niño dynamics,» said first author Daniel Nelson, who did the research
for his UW doctorate in oceanography.
For example, the isotopic signatures of ice cores depend on the
seasonal distribution of
precipitation.
Seasonal changes in
precipitation and water storage make it difficult
for modelers to estimate water availability and impacts of interventions, and the effects of climate change can be difficult to tease out from other impacts like human activities.
«Hotspots show that vegetation alters climate by up to 30 percent: Engineers find strong feedbacks between the atmosphere and vegetation that explain up to 30 % of
precipitation and surface radiation variance; study reveals large potential
for improving
seasonal weather predictions.»
If there's a big volcanic eruption tomorrow, Robock said he could make predictions
for seasonal temperatures,
precipitation and the appearance of El Niño next winter.
Seasonal decreases in land
precipitation since the 1950s are the main cause
for some of the drying trends, although large surface warming during the last two to three decades has also likely contributed to the drying.
doi: 10.1130 / G23261A.1 v. 35 no. 3 p. 215 - 218 Abrupt increase in
seasonal extreme
precipitation at the Paleocene - Eocene boundary B Schmitz, V Pujalte — Geology, 2007 — geology.gsapubs.org A prominent increase in atmospheric CO2 at the Paleocene - Eocene boundary, ca. 55 Ma, led to the warmest Earth of the Cenozoic
for ∼ 100 ky High - resolution studies of continental flood - plain sediment records across this boundary....
For the entire Northern Hemisphere, there is evidence of an increase in both storm frequency and intensity during the cold season since 1950,1 with storm tracks having shifted slightly towards the poles.2, 3 Extremely heavy snowstorms increased in number during the last century in northern and eastern parts of the United States, but have been less frequent since 2000.11,15 Total
seasonal snowfall has generally decreased in southern and some western areas, 16 increased in the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes region, 16,17 and not changed in other areas, such as the Sierra Nevada, although snow is melting earlier in the year and more
precipitation is falling as rain versus snow.18 Very snowy winters have generally been decreasing in frequency in most regions over the last 10 to 20 years, although the Northeast has been seeing a normal number of such winters.19 Heavier - than - normal snowfalls recently observed in the Midwest and Northeast U.S. in some years, with little snow in other years, are consistent with indications of increased blocking (a large scale pressure pattern with little or no movement) of the wintertime circulation of the Northern Hemisphere.5 However, conclusions about trends in blocking have been found to depend on the method of analysis, 6 so the assessment and attribution of trends in blocking remains an active research area.
The
seasonal contributions to the difference in annual
precipitation are slightly larger
for June - July - August and March - April - May than
for the other seasons.
Climate models are like weather models
for the atmosphere and land, except they have to additionally predict the ocean currents, sea - ice changes, include
seasonal vegetation effects, possibly even predict vegetation changes, include aerosols and possibly atmospheric chemistry, so they are not like weather models after all, except
for the atmospheric dynamics, land surface, and cloud /
precipitation component.
Seasonal decreases in land
precipitation since the 1950s are the main cause
for some of the drying trends, although large surface warming during the last two to three decades has also likely contributed to the drying.
Precipitation anomaly
for winter, spring, summer and autumn 2017 relative to the respective
seasonal average
for the period 1981 - 2010.
CAS = Commission
for Atmospheric Sciences CMDP = Climate Metrics and Diagnostic Panel CMIP = Coupled Model Intercomparison Project DAOS = Working Group on Data Assimilation and Observing Systems GASS = Global Atmospheric System Studies panel GEWEX = Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment GLASS = Global Land - Atmosphere System Studies panel GOV = Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) Ocean View JWGFVR = Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research MJO - TF = Madden - Julian Oscillation Task Force PDEF = Working Group on Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting PPP = Polar Prediction Project QPF = Quantitative
precipitation forecast S2S = Subseasonal to
Seasonal Prediction Project SPARC = Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate TC = Tropical cyclone WCRP = World Climate Research Programme WCRP Grand Science Challenges • Climate Extremes • Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity • Melting Ice and Global Consequences • Regional Sea - Ice Change and Coastal Impacts • Water Availability WCRP JSC = Joint Scientific Committee WGCM = Working Group on Coupled Modelling WGSIP = Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction WWRP = World Weather Research Programme YOPP = Year of Polar Prediction
The statistics would be more robust with
seasonal temperatures than with
precipitation for sure because
precipitation has a lot more interannual variability.
To investigate these conditions, temperature and
precipitation data gathered from BC provincial ministries, BC Hydro and Environment Canada were analyzed to compare monthly and
seasonal averages
for the 1900 through 2016 period against the long - term averages from the period 1971 - 2000.
We are beginning to sound like a broken record here, but again, it is impossible to present reliable future projections
for precipitations changes across the U.S. (
seasonal or annual) from a collection of climate models which largely can not even get the sign (much less the magnitude) of the observed changes correct.
A set of long, nearly complete daily
precipitation series
for Alaska spanning the latter half of the 20th century has been analyzed
for seasonal relationships between variations in mean, heavy, and extreme
precipitation and large - scale atmospheric circulation variations at interannual, decadal, and secular timescales.
As a result of soil and atmosphere feedbacks (Beljaars et al. 1996; Seneviratne et al. 2010),
seasonal predictions of soil moisture content over the US can further increase the predictability of
precipitation and atmospheric temperature variations
for up to several months (Zeng et al. 1999; Kanamitsu et al. 2003; Koster and Suarez 2003; Yang et al. 2004; Dirmeyer et al. 2013).
(D) The unconditional probability of a — 1.5 SD
seasonal precipitation anomaly (blue curve) and the conditional probability that a — 1.5 SD
seasonal precipitation anomaly occurs in conjunction with a 1.5 SD
seasonal temperature anomaly (red curve),
for each of the four 3 - mo seasons.
This doesn't provide enough information
for a continent where the
seasonal cycle of
precipitation has such socio - economic importance.
This is especially true
for smaller (
seasonal and regional) scales and weather and climate extremes, and
for important hydroclimatic variables such as
precipitation and water availability.
The scatter diagrams described and presented on these pages depict projected changes in
seasonal surface air temperature and
precipitation for three 30 - year periods (2010 - 2039, 2040 - 2069 and 2070 - 2099) relative to the baseline period 1961 - 1990 in 32 sub-continental scale regions (see below).
PCIC has made
seasonal maps of average temperature and total
precipitation departures from the 30 - year climatology at observational weather stations in BC,
for all months from 1972 onward.
The combination of width, density, and isotope analysis offers a powerful set of independent but mutually reinforcing tools
for reconstructing climate because the effects of temperature and
precipitation can be distinguished, and
seasonal changes can be observed.
The figure shows the spatial distribution of stations and the
seasonal cycles, with results
for all
precipitation days included
for comparison with extremes.
I don't know if numerical verification tables are available
for the monthly and
seasonal outlooks
for precipitation and temperature.
Controlling
for observed conditions, beliefs about global climate change had a large effect on perceptions of
seasonal temperature, and smaller effects on perceptions of
seasonal precipitation.»
AOGCM projections of
seasonal changes in (a) mean temperature (previous page) and (b)
precipitation up to the end of the 21st century
for 32 world regions.
The verification of
seasonal precipitation forecasts
for early warning in Zambia and Malawi.
Pre-TAR AOGCM results held at the DDC were included in a model intercomparison across the four SRES emissions scenarios (B1, B2, A2, and A1FI) of
seasonal mean temperature and
precipitation change
for thirty - two world regions (Ruosteenoja et al., 2003).9 The inter-model range of changes by the end of the 21st century is summarised in Figure 2.6
for the A2 scenario, expressed as rates of change per century.