Sentences with phrase «seasonal predictions of»

Elsner, J. B. and Schmertmann, 1993: Improving extended - range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity.

The purpose of the seasonal predictions of arctic sea ice is for scientific research and education only.

Lindsay, R.W., J. Zhang, A. Schweiger and M.A. Steele, «Seasonal predictions of ice extent in the Arctic Ocean», J. Geophys.

As a result of soil and atmosphere feedbacks (Beljaars et al. 1996; Seneviratne et al. 2010), seasonal predictions of soil moisture content over the US can further increase the predictability of precipitation and atmospheric temperature variations for up to several months (Zeng et al. 1999; Kanamitsu et al. 2003; Koster and Suarez 2003; Yang et al. 2004; Dirmeyer et al. 2013).

While these relationships lay a path forward to improving seasonal predictions of ice conditions in the region, developing an operational prediction scheme would require more timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data than is presently possible.

• How can improved estimates of sea ice thickness help improve seasonal predictions of sea ice conditions?

The new ice thickness estimates will also be used to improve on - going seasonal predictions of sea ice extent.

The forecast scheme for the September sea ice extent is based on a methodology similar to one used for the seasonal prediction of river streamflow.

Ionita and Grosfeld (IUP Bremen Data), 4.25 (3.53 - 4.97), Statistical The forecast scheme for the September sea ice extent is based on a methodology similar to one used for the seasonal prediction of river streamflow (Ionita et al., 2008, 2014).

Zhang, J., R. Woodgate, and S. Mangiameli, Towards seasonal prediction of the distribution and extent of cold bottom waters on the Bering Sea shelf, Deep - Sea Res.

This webpage details Ron Lindsay's (Applied Physics Laboratory) seasonal prediction of pan-arctic sea ice extent.

Not exact matches

Family owned pastry manufacturer, Pidy bases seasonal launches on the latest trends and predictions, in particular its specialist range of sweet products, which help to create the most decadent of desserts.

Martin King hopes that renewed interest in the seasonal variation of El Niño tele - connections in Europe will contribute to further progress in climate predictions on monthly and seasonal scales.

Changes in the oceans occur more slowly than in the atmosphere, and this long - term memory of the ocean is a major key to seasonal and decadal predictions.

«Hotspots show that vegetation alters climate by up to 30 percent: Engineers find strong feedbacks between the atmosphere and vegetation that explain up to 30 % of precipitation and surface radiation variance; study reveals large potential for improving seasonal weather predictions.»

Comparing the snakes» most active temperature range with predictions of shifts due to climate change, the team pointed out that the timing of seasonal activities may shift in the future — which could impact their interactions with other species.

NOAA evaluates the accuracy of its seasonal forecasts each year, with the aim of seeing the number of storms fall in the given ranges at least 70 percent of the time, which they do consistently, Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said.

If there's a big volcanic eruption tomorrow, Robock said he could make predictions for seasonal temperatures, precipitation and the appearance of El Niño next winter.

«Fortunately, we've reduced the upper end, the number of major hurricanes,» said Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center.

It's quite clear that if we could run our models at a higher resolution we could do a much better job — tomorrow — in terms of our seasonal and decadal predictions.

By working on the still - not - fully - cracked nut of estimating changes in hurricane frequency and intensity in a warming climate, Gabe and his colleagues ended up with a modeling system with seasonal skill in regional hurricane prediction.

A new buzz - word is the concept of «seamless prediction», in which predictions ranging from nowcasting all the way to future scenarios are provided with a sliding time scale and that doesn't make distinction of incremental types such as «weather forecasts» «seasonal predictions» and «climate scenarios».

Palmer, T.N., et al., 2004: Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal to interannual prediction (DEMETER).

Balmaseda, M.A., M.K. Davey, and D.L.T. Anderson, 1995: Decadal and seasonal dependence of ENSO prediction skill.

Jorge Vazquez - Aguirre is in charge of the climatology working group at the National Meteorological Service of Mexico with operational duties related to climatic data, seasonal prediction, drought monitoring and climate services.

Graham, R.J., et al., 2005: A performance comparison of coupled and uncoupled versions of the Met Office seasonal prediction general circulation model.

It is the top priority of my research group to try to solve this problem to improve our climate predictions and, depending on the answer, it could affect predictions on all timescales from medium range forecasts, through monthly, seasonal, decadal and even climate change projections.

The seasonal prediction issue and the prediction of the long - term trajectory are fundamentally different problems.

Many of the models are becoming useful for seasonal predictions, namely ENSO.

For the future, data assimilation might help us to keep the state of a climate model closer to the real world's, allowing us to improve predictions on seasonal and decadal time scales.

But models based on physical principles also reproduce the response to seasonal and spatial changes in radiative forcing fairly well, which is one of the many lines of evidence that supports their use in their prediction of the response to anthropogenic forcing.

Second, predictions of seasonal effects are simple extrapolations of statistical records accumulated in real time over many generations, and over many summer / winter cycles, but we do not have comparable statistical records accumulated in real time over many cycles of increasing / decreasing GHGs.

In making its seasonal prediction, forecasters cautioned that there are large portions of the country for which there are no clear indications whether it will be a warmer, colder, wetter, or drier than average winter, largely due to a fickle El Niño event that may have petered out too early to have much of an impact on North American winter weather.

While the goal of this campaign was to improve seasonal ice prediction, the work also showed two important processes at work:

An accurate prediction of the AO could lead to improved seasonal temperature forecasts over the major population centers in eastern North America and Europe as it explains the largest fraction of temperature variance of any other climate mode over these regions.

With this service, seasonal predictions, reanalyses and climate projections will be provided free of charge in the form of global and regional plots in real time.

The meterologists who make seasonal predictions seem to have at least some handle on many of the rythms and cycles in weather patterns and climate.

The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above - normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center... 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

The summer - winter changes in insolation are much larger than those due to human - induced greenhouse gas changes; the seasonal change is mainly in the visible part of the electromagnetic spectrum while the greenhouse gas forcing is in the infrared; the greenhouse gas influence is global while the seasonal changes are opposite in the two hemispheres; and we have a much longer history of observing the seasonal changes, so a more or less correct prediction can be made empirically, without any physical understanding.

Substantial progress has been made in recent years on the development and applications of medium - range weather forecasts and seasonal climate predictions.

Further, just as seasonal - to - interannual predictions start from an estimate of the state of the climate system, there is a growing realization that decadal and longer - term climate predictions could be initialized with estimates of the current observed state of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and land surface.

The subseasonal to seasonal timescale provides a unique opportunity to capitalise on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities, and to bring them together to improve predictions on a timescale of particular relevance to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS).

At the end of the talk, the presenter listed the main barriers faced by users in the application of seasonal predictions, which have a lot to do with the lack of communication and the difficulties to match the user expectations in terms of climate information.

«Accurate seasonal and decadal predictions of tropical cyclone activity are essential for the development of mitigation strategies for the 2.7 billion residents living within cyclone prone regions.

A top - down climate effect that shows long - term drift (and may also be out of phase with the bottom - up solar forcing) would change the spatial response patterns and would mean that climate - chemistry models that have sufficient resolution in the stratosphere would become very important for making accurate regional / seasonal climate predictions.

«The IRI and other centers have been issuing seasonal climate predictions routinely since the late 1990s, but prediction on the subseasonal range — which fills the gap between weather forecasts and seasonal forecasts — is an emerging area of research,» Robertson told the IRI.

The meeting will mainly cover the following themes, but can include other topics related to understanding and modelling the atmosphere: ● Surface drag and momentum transport: orographic drag, convective momentum transport ● Processes relevant for polar prediction: stable boundary layers, mixed - phase clouds ● Shallow and deep convection: stochasticity, scale - awareness, organization, grey zone issues ● Clouds and circulation feedbacks: boundary - layer clouds, CFMIP, cirrus ● Microphysics and aerosol - cloud interactions: microphysical observations, parameterization, process studies on aerosol - cloud interactions ● Radiation: circulation coupling; interaction between radiation and clouds ● Land - atmosphere interactions: Role of land processes (snow, soil moisture, soil temperature, and vegetation) in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction ● Physics - dynamics coupling: numerical methods, scale - separation and grey - zone, thermodynamic consistency ● Next generation model development: the challenge of exascale, dynamical core developments, regional refinement, super-parametrization ● High Impact and Extreme Weather: role of convective scale models; ensembles; relevant challenges for model development

They have a better record of accuracy than official long term forecasts, Consider the UKMO seasonal inaccuracies over the last many years, most recently the prediction of a dry winter in 2013 in one of the wettest on record.

This study assesses the ability of the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) and the Canadian Earth - system Model 2 (CanESM2) to predict and simulate snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the CanadianSeasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) and the Canadian Earth - system Model 2 (CanESM2) to predict and simulate snow and sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadianseasonal to multi-decadal timescales, with a focus on the Canadian sector.

During 2015 our decadal prediction system was upgraded to use the latest high resolution version of our coupled climate model, consistent with our seasonal forecasts.