Sure enough, looking at
seasonal temperature anomalies we can see various curves like this:
And it finds that, while this winter's unusually strong Arctic Oscillation - which funnels cold northern air to the East Coast and pulls warm mid-latitude air up to the Arctic - is predicted as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rise,
seasonal temperature anomalies associated with it aren't enough to blunt long - term warming trends.
(D) The unconditional probability of a — 1.5 SD seasonal precipitation anomaly (blue curve) and the conditional probability that a — 1.5 SD seasonal precipitation anomaly occurs in conjunction with a 1.5 SD
seasonal temperature anomaly (red curve), for each of the four 3 - mo seasons.
Not exact matches
The researchers also looked at deviations of daily
temperatures from
seasonal averages in trying to determine the effect of
anomalies on crime rates.
Our readings suggest the area is beginning to experience a
seasonal drop in seawater
temperature, which may counteract the warm water
anomaly and help buy some species time.
Figure 5 - June - August surface
temperature anomalies in 2009 - 2011 in units of °C (a), and in units of the local standard deviation of local
seasonal - mean
temperature (b).
December - February surface
temperature anomalies 2009 - 2011 in units of °C (a), and in units of the local standard deviation of local
seasonal - mean
temperature (b).
How do you renormalise the absolute values of the 3
temperature anomaly series NCDC, GISS and Hadcrut4 when each uses a different
seasonal normalisation period.
A
seasonal value is available if there are two valid monthly
temperature anomaly values.
[Response: Hansen et al. look at
seasonal anomalies, especially those for the average
temperature of June - July - August.
For example since the
temperature anomalies used in the analyses are local
seasonal averages, then an increase in the value of a
temperature anomaly might arise simply from a shift in the local
temperature distribution.
[Response: Short term
seasonal forecasting is very much an experimental endeavour and relies not on the predictability due to changes in forcings, but the persistence of ocean
temperature anomalies.
While the local,
seasonal climate forcing by the Milankovitch cycles is large (of the order 30 W / m2), the net forcing provided by Milankovitch is close to zero in the global mean, requiring other radiative terms (like albedo or greenhouse gas
anomalies) to force global - mean
temperature change.
In the latter (admittedly somewhat unusual) choice of baseline, the fraction of last July's
temperature anomaly that is attributable to global warming is tiny, since most of the
anomaly is perfectly natural and due to the
seasonal cycle!
Normally we just plot the monthly
anomalies (with respect to each month), but here I used the estimates of the
seasonal cycle in
temperature from MERRA2 to enhance the analysis so that months can be compared in an absolute sense.
These seasons will be «hotter» (stronger
anomaly) still, relatively speaking — and are very likely to break all
seasonal temperature records for Sep - Nov and Dec - Feb, globally.
Lag correlations between
seasonal anomalies of the two variables are generally stronger with ice lagging the summer
temperatures and with ice leading the winter
temperatures.
Type 3 downscaling is applied, for example, for
seasonal forecasts where slowly changing
anomalies in the surface forcing (such as sea surface
temperature) provide real - world information to constrain the downscaling results.
It would be intuitive that such
seasonal warming patterns would show up clearly in the overall DMI
temperature anomaly trend, and this is the case.
Seasonal mean time series of global - mean
temperature anomalies from 1979 to 1998.
The expected value for a
temperature station can be the
seasonal value for that area, but that is only one type of
anomaly.
Seasonal, global surface air temperature anomalies from boreal spring 1979 to autumn 2017 relative to the respective seasonal average for the period 1981
Seasonal, global surface air
temperature anomalies from boreal spring 1979 to autumn 2017 relative to the respective
seasonal average for the period 1981
seasonal average for the period 1981 - 2010.
Surface air
temperature anomaly for boreal winter (DJF), spring (MAM), summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) 2017 relative to the respective
seasonal average for the period 1981 - 2010.
We also tested for the effect of extreme
temperatures on the proportion of male births using a
temperature anomaly series [18] and additionally we considered two simpler hypotheses: that the monthly numbers of births, and the monthly proportions of male births, vary in a
seasonal manner [16].
However, time series trends are more appropriately modelled dynamically using decomposition methods [32]--[34], and an alternative
temperature anomaly series can be constructed using departures from a dynamic
seasonal pattern, following estimation using a centred 12 - point moving average (e.g., [34]-RRB-.
We illustrate observed variability of
seasonal mean surface air
temperature emphasizing the distribution of
anomalies in units of the standard deviation, including comparison of the observed distribution of
anomalies with the normal distribution («bell curve») that the lay public may appreciate.
Further to my previous comments, it should be noted that the warm
anomalies («
anomaly» means the difference from the norm, whether yearly,
seasonal, monthly, etc.) mentioned are sea surface
temperatures.
So I will ask again (paraphrasing): Do you think it is inappropriate to remove the
seasonal change in the Earth's average
temperature (which is implicitly done via the the use of
anomalies rather than absolute
temperatures)?
Fig. 5 reveals that the occurrence of «hot» summers (
seasonal mean
temperature anomaly exceeding +0.43 σ) has reached the level of 67 % required to make four sides of the dice red in both the Northern Hemisphere (Fig. 5, Top) and Southern Hemisphere (Fig. 5, Bottom).
As I understand it global
temperatures are calculated as
anomalies, thus removing
seasonal swings, but that Heat Content is not, Now our dear planet has an elliptical orbit and is sometimes closer to the sun that others; sure, the shape of the land and oceans doesn't mean that the amount of incoming solar radiation falling on the oceans follows the Earths orbit, but it should be possible to work out the amount of incoming solar radiation each quarter.