Not exact matches
The summer doldrums are
in full flow, so
seasonal weakness is to be expected.
There are a number of factors behind this
seasonal weakness, including harsh winter weather, idiosyncrasies
in the corporate capital expenditures cycle and the timing of monetary policy changes since the crisis.
While we believe payrolls and average hourly earnings are both likely to miss consensus estimates, we think the employment report may be somewhat less important than usual for the monetary policy outlook, because 1) recent data have been firm so we have some room for a miss, 2) the August
seasonal issue is now well known so even a somewhat larger miss may not significantly alter the staff view, and 3) there are several months between now and December to make up for any
weakness in tomorrow's report.
Seeking to further explain the
weakness, a number of economists emphasized the recurring pattern evident
in quarterly GDP numbers since 2010 — whereby first - quarter growth has averaged less than half the rate for the rest of the year — raising suspicions that
seasonal effects may be skewing the data.
Next season will tell if the back 3 resolves our
seasonal trouble of failing
in the big moments and our problem of mental
weakness.