Not exact matches
Goodwin analysed Labour
constituencies with the lowest
majorities where over 50 % voted Leave in the EU referendum, and where Ukip are already in second place, or a close third, to come up with his list of 20 target
seats.
Labour have continued to win
seats in their core
constituencies because the
majority of their old supporters refuse to vote for other parties but those are slowly dying off.
Then in 2011, Lothian's
constituencies were engulfed in the SNP tidal wave, except Edinburgh North and Leith which the popular Malcolm Chisholm held for Labour with a slim
majority over Shirley - Anne Somerville (who lost her
seat on the list because of that wave of success but looks set to return as the representative for Dunfermline).
Field held the
seat with a
majority of 5,909 and has remained the
constituency's MP since then.
Labour candidate Michael McMahon is the incumbent in the Uddingston and Bellshill
constituency, although he had only a slim
majority of 2.8 % in 2011, making this a key target
seat for the SNP.
Sitting pretty Stephen Timms, MP for East Ham, needn't worry about his
seat too much, as he had a record - breaking
majority of 27,826 — it's larger than the UK's smallest
constituency electorate in its entirety.
She returns to contest the
seat again, defending a 14.1
majority from Labour's new candidate in the
constituency, Claudia Beamish.
Crosby's realisation that Lib Dem
seats could be taken and that voters in those
constituencies were persuadable, especially when the polls indicated a Labour
majority supported by the SNP, to vote Conservative.
If this were repeated in every
constituency, Labour would gain enough
seats to come close to an outright
majority, even if it loses badly in Scotland.
Allen was elected as the Labour MP for the Nottingham North
constituency at the 1987 general election, gaining the
seat from the Conservative's Richard Ottaway with a
majority of 1,665 votes.
Outcome (Based on polling tracker, assuming national swing reproduced in every
constituency) Conservatives: 239
seats Labour: 265
seats Liberal Democrat: 115
seats Other: 31
seats Labour short of an overall
majority by 61.
And of the target
seats which would deliver a Tory
majority of the Commons of around 40, all but three of the thirteen
constituencies in the Yorkshire and the Humber Region are in West Yorkshire:
Mark Williams, then - Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, was defeated at the 2017 general election in his Ceredigion
constituency by Ben Lake of Plaid Cymru, whose
majority of 104 made the
seat one of the most marginal in the country.
These
seats - Labour - held
constituencies the Tories need to take if they want a workable
majority - need a swing of at least three to seven per cent for them to go blue.
Their
majority was secured when Geoffrey Clifton - Brown held The Cotswolds to clinch the 326
seats needed to win with a handful of
constituencies left to declare
In spite of these controversies, Abbott was re-elected in her
seat of Hackney North and Stoke Newington, receiving 75 % of the
constituency's votes with an increased
majority of over 35,000.
Labour holds 27 out of 27 council
seats in Creasy's
constituency, while Creasy herself has a
majority of 23,195 votes.
Like all winner - take - all voting methods, IRV tends to exaggerate the number of
seats won by the largest parties; small parties without
majority support in any given
constituency are unlikely to earn
seats in a legislature, although their supporters will be more likely to be part of the final choice between the two strongest candidates.
In the election, the Conservatives won 297 of the 533 English
constituencies, a
majority of 61, and in England and Wales, they won 305 out of 573
seats, a
majority of 37.
Roderick Campbell doubled the SNP vote and leapt from third to first place in this traditionally Liberal Democrat
constituency to take the
seat with a
majority of 2,592 over Iain Smith in 2011.
An increasing
majority of parliamentary
constituencies are safe
seats where, barring some freak event, the result is not in doubt.
Outcome (Based on polling tracker, assuming national swing reproduced in every
constituency) Conservatives: 283
seats Labour: 283
seats Liberal Democrat: 53
seats Other: 31
seats Conservatives and Labour short of an overall
majority by 43.
Incidentally, it has not gone unnoticed around Westminster that apart from a few infamous Labour examples, such as Labour's Ann Keen in Brentford and Isleworth, the vast
majority of MPs in Outer London and the
constituencies in the South East - who will lose out as a result of making those with
seats «within travelling distance» of Westminster ineligible for the daily allowance - are Conservatives.
Sunderland Central takes in the
majority of the former Sunderland North
seat, save for Castle and Redhill wards which move to Washington and Sunderland West, and the most Easterly part of the old Sunderland South
constituency, the rest of which joins the new Houghton and Sunderland South.
Outcome (Based on polling tracker, assuming national swing reproduced in every
constituency) Conservatives: 319
seats Labour: 247
seats Liberal Democrat: 54
seats Other: 30
seats Conservatives short of an overall
majority by seven
The
constituency has undergone several boundary changes since its creation in 1918 but has remained a safe Labour
seat since the Second World War, with the exception of a by - election in 1969 when Wallace Lawler won the
seat for the Liberal Party and immediately surrounding period when its
majority was marginal.
«What is particularly missing at this time is her coming out in public, meeting her constituents, talking to TV cameras, explaining what happened, perhaps being a little humble about all of this and giving a satisfactory explanation to her constituents and the wider Conservative family to be quite frank, because speaking to people from the West Midlands region where she is an MP, these things do have a knock - on effect and there are other marginal
seats far closer to her
constituency where people have got Labour
majorities to overturn which may be more difficult if the local Conservative politician is seen as tainted and not having justified their actions and also I gather that Conservative Party HQ has had party donors from the region expressing concern that she hasn't satisfactorily justified what she has done.»
Lord Ashcroft has become a powerful figure at Conservative HQ, where he is credited with devising the party's marginal
seat strategy, pouring resources into
constituencies where Labour MPs are defending small
majority.
Rules state the Lewisham East MP will be forced to give up the
seat before taking up the new job - prompting a summer by - election in a
constituency where Labour enjoys a 21,000
majority.
The now powerful party figure is credited with devising its marginal
seat strategy, pouring resources into
constituencies where Labour MPs are defending small
majorities.
[8] Hewitt's
constituency of Leicester West is a safe Labour
seat, with a
majority of 9,070 votes in the 2005 General Election.
«The Liberal Democrats are likely to lose out more than the other main parties because their
seats are yellow islands in a sea of red or blue; changing the boundaries is more likely to bring in hostile territories, their
majorities tend to be smaller than Labour or Conservative MPs and their Lib Dems trade a lot on incumbency and
constituency service.
There are
seats with 5,000 + Labour
majorities that we are likely to win at the general election, but a
constituency like Norwich North that has such a high proportion of council estates is not automatically in that category.
However, it will be won or lost in the 117 marginal
seats we need to win in order to gain an overall
majority; and it will be won or lost on the decisions of swing voters in those
constituencies.
If so, Labour would need — with the current
constituency boundaries — to win around 90 additional
seats in England and Wales to achieve an outright
majority.
Mr Goodwin analysed Labour
constituencies with the lowest
majorities where over 50 % voted Leave in the EU referendum, and where Ukip are already in second place, or a close third, to come up with his list of 20 target
seats.
While in many ways it may be satisfying for campaigners to achieve gigantic
majorities in their home areas, once a party has achieved first place in a
constituency under FPTP those extra votes do nothing to help secure more
seats in the House of Commons.
It will be surprising if her party's lead over Labour is not increased by at least 30
seats, which will probably ensure a Commons
majority of about 90 — a solid foundation for the 2022 election, which will probably be fought in new
constituencies likely to boost the Tory lead over Labour by at least another 20
seats despite the reduction by 50 in the number of MPs.
The Conservatives have won 331
seats, securing a parliamentary
majority of 12 after all 650
constituencies declared.
George Galloway of the Respect Party won the
seat in the Bradford West by - election, 2012 with 55.9 % of the votes cast; his 30.9 %
majority was at the time the largest
majority in the history of the modern
constituency, but he lost the
seat in 2015 to the new Labour candidate Naz Shah by a substantial (28.3 %) margin.
Here is the lead by
constituency on the local votes from the 10 most marginal Conservative held
seats in 2015 and Reading East / West (
seats with ward boundary changes, no local elections in 2015 or either Con or Lab not running in more than one ward have been omitted), the actual
majority is in brackets:
For the election to produce a
majority government, the biggest party theoretically must win at least 326
seats of the 650 regional
constituencies.
In the 2011 district council elections his
constituency lost a single Conservative
seat to the Liberal Democrats resulting in a
majority of 30
seats.
Well Hutton is not in the Redcar
constituency it is Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland which is number 21 on the Tories target
seat list (Labour
majority 4.9 %).
Kendall, a former Labour leadership candidate who is well regarded by the party's right wing, has a
majority of just over 7,000 in her Leicester West
constituency, but local Tories say they are hopeful of taking the
seat.
Polltroll — they're in a rather awkward position at the nomen between Scottish Labour surging up back to where they were in 2011, the Conservatives certainly back in play in the vast
majority of
seats they took in 1979, and the Lib Dems ahead in some key heartland
constituencies.
The Conservatives lost six
seats in the capital, losing Battersea, Croydon Central, Enfield Southgate and Kensington to Labour, who saw its
majorities increase in a number of
constituencies.
All over, bar the shouting: Shawn Graham's Liberal party will form a
majority government in New Brunswick after taking 29 out of 55
constituencies and leaving the Tories with 26
seats.