Kevin Rudd's personal popularity fell away, most notably in the marginal
seats Labour needs to retain.
Not exact matches
At last year's general election the party fell short of gaining the sort of Leave - voting
Labour seats they
needed for a majority.
Labour succeeded in holding off the Tory challenge in enough
seats to prevent the Tories making the inroads they
needed.
As the night wore on it became increasingly clear
Labour were not winning the
seats it
needed to capture to form the largest party, and by the morning the impossible had happened: David Cameron had pulled the irons of an overall majority from the election fire.
It won't make
Labour any more popular among the voters it
needs to save its marginal
seats at the election.»
He was picked as
Labour candidate for Keighley [citation
needed] and won the
seat in the 1922 general election, [4] profiting from a divided opposition.
Some may argue that
Labour can afford to lose some support in its heartlands so long as it does well where it
needs to win
seats at the next general election.
Regular readers will recall that the Magic Number — the difference between the number of Conservative and
Labour seats in the House of Commons, and therefore the combined number of net Tory losses and net
Labour gains
needed for the parties to have the same number of MPs after the next election — is 46.
Doubtless
Labour will not recover in Scotland to (even) 2010 levels of support, but they do not
need to do so in order to save the vast majority of their
seats in Scotland.
Labour needs to hold onto those 2m Brexiters, or the seven out of ten
Labour - Brexit constituencies, at the very least, just to maintain its current 100 +
seat deficit.
The research forecast that the SNP would get 53
seats, which together with
Labour's 268 would leave the two parties just short of the 323 votes
needed to lock - out a Conservative government.
They make up more than half the electorate in the vast majority of the English swing
seats that
Labour needs to win to secure a workable majority.
We
need to appeal to people, and I would note that in these results, while I'm sorry that Conservative councillors who've worked hard lost their
seats, in places like Amber Valley in Derbyshire, the heart of England, a part that's actually been
Labour for decades, we still have a Conservative council, a place where I launched our local election campaign.»
But
Labour is still expected to be quite some distance from a bare majority, which is 326
seats, and would
need closer to 340 to sustain a workable majority in the House of Commons.
If the Tories are serious in their bid to claim the mantle of opposition, then they would
need to win this
seat, which
Labour worried about losing in 2011 (given the Conservative favourable boundary changes).
Research from the Fabian Society shows that in order to secure a majority in 2020,
Labour needs to gain at least 106
seats in very different parts of the country.
For every six - to - seven
seats Labour lose at the general election, the Corbynites
need one fewer MP's nomination.
And you can take it as read that
Labour is falling well, well behind in the Tory - held target
seats it will one day
need to win to form a government.
Far from there being the long - predicted «swing back» to the Tories as the election nears, Lord Ashcroft's polls suggest that
Labour have actually cemented their position in many of the target
seats they
need to win.
It comes as a series of new polls suggest that the party are making no progress in the marginal
seats they
need to win from
Labour in order to form the next government.
But if
Labour emerges with 170
seats, the left would
need Lewis and Maskell to pull through - plus one more, which is why Corbyn's insiders are so desperate to secure safe
seats for allies like Katy Clark.
But, for the rest, it seems likely that the average swing in the
seats that
Labour really
needs to win will fall short of the national swing.
The successful candidate would
need a swing of 10 % to overturn the notional
Labour majority of 8,830, which will be defended by Barry Gardiner - who beat long - standing Tory MP Sir Rhodes Boyson to win the
seat (on somewhat different boundaries) in 1997.
The general election result — when the Conservative Treasury minister Jane Ellison was swept out of her Battersea
seat after a 10 % swing to
Labour — has given activists hope of taking Wandsworth for the first time in 40 years, but in several wards the party would
need a significantly bigger swing to take the number of councillors
needed for a majority.
jsfl, In order to calculate the swing from 2005 in these marginal
seats, we
need to have the party shares that occurred in these constituencies — not the national shares.Given that Anthony is quoting a 29 % Con lead over
Labour and a swing of approximately 11 % from Lab to Con since 2005, the implication is that in 2005 the Tories enjoyed a 7 % lead over
Labour in these paricular
seats!
Seats like this are the ones
Labour need to win in order to claim the keys to Number 10.
Labour needs fewer
seats than the Conservatives to end up in power after 7th May — the reason involves a mixture of rules and arithmetic.
Labour big names John McDonnell and Diane Abbott would
need an upset to lose their
seats, Hayes & Harlington and Hackney North & Stoke Newington.
To gain an overall majority, the Conservatives
need to gain 101
seats from
Labour, 13 from the Lib Dems and two from the nationalist parties.
On these national support figures and assuming they would be contesting at least thirty constituencies, the
Labour Party would
need a lot of luck to win more than one or two
seats in terms of their total number of
seats at a general election contest.
Spencer would
need to overtake the Liberal Democats and attain a swing from
Labour of 17.45 % to take the
seat.
He is challenging
Labour MP Shahid Malik, who will defend a notional majority of 3,999, meaning that Simon
needs a swing of 4.5 % to win the
seat, which last had a Tory MP between 1983 and 1987.
After considerable boundary changes, the sitting
Labour MP, Shahid Malik, will be defending a notional majority of only 3,999 (based on the Rallings and Thrasher figures), meaning that Simon
needs a swing of 4.5 % to win the
seat.
Just as
Labour needs Clegg to hold off Tories in their winnable
seats, so the Lib Dems
need the
Labour vote to hold up and withstand a Tory assault.
The more
seats a party or grouping has, the more chance it has of forming a government - with 198
seats out of 646 the Conservative Party could only form a government if significant numbers of other MP's decided to back them, as happened in 1924 when there was a situation that the Conservatives didn't want to form a coalition with either other main party and equally the Liberals didn't want a coalition with
Labour and the Liberals and Conservatives saw it as an opportunity to allow
Labour into government but in a situation in which legislation was still reliant on Liberal and Conservative votes and they could be brought down at the most suitable time, supposing the notional gains were accurate and in the improbable event of the next election going exactly the same way in terms of votes then 214 out of 650 is 32.93 % of
seats compared to at 198 out of 646
seats - 30.65 % of
seats and the Conservative Party would then be 14
seats closer towards a total neccessary to form a government allowing for the greater number of
seats, on the one hand the Conservatives
need Labour to fail but equally they
need to succeed themselves given that the Liberal Democrats appear likely to oppose anyone forming a government who does not embark on a serious programme to introduce PR, in addition PC & SNP would expect moves towards Independence for Scotland and Wales, the SDLP will be likely to back
Labour and equally UKIP would want a committment to withdraw from Europe and anyway will be likely to be in small numbers if any, pretty much that leaves cutting a deal with the DUP which would only add the backing of an extra 10 - 13 MP's.
An insider was resigned to the fact they'd
need a major upset to snatch the
seat from
Labour but insisted: «It'll be a big hit.»
Ewan Lamont was selected to contest the
seat for the Conservatives in January 2009 and
needs a swing of a little over 12 % to overturn the notional
Labour majority of 7,083.
«It is certainly our belief that
Labour needs more trade unionists in Parliament, as opposed to
seats being handed out on a grace - and - favour basis to Oxbridge - educated «special advisers», but we make no apology for that.»
If those voters decide to vote for the Greens,
Labour may lose several of the
seats it
needs to obtain a majority.
To win back the
seat, the
Labour candidate would
need to win broad support.
Of the
Labour - held
seats not yet polled, the swings
needed would be biggest in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Glenrothes and Inverclyde (19 to 23 % swings required).
«This just shows us everything we
need to know about modern
Labour - the train's left the station, the
seats are all empty, the leader's on the floor.
Such a result in these
Labour / Conservative marginals would leave the Tories short of winning the 117
seats they
need to take from the governing party in order to have an overall majority.
He said: «There was a general mood from the PLP that all members of the PLP should be out there defending the achievements of the last
Labour government and defending what
Labour achieved in
seats such as Stoke and Copeland - that is part of what we
need to be saying.»
These
seats -
Labour - held constituencies the Tories
need to take if they want a workable majority -
need a swing of at least three to seven per cent for them to go blue.
He
needs a 6.25 % swing to take the
seat from
Labour, making Barrow - in - Furness exactly the kind of constituency David Cameron
needs to win in order to form a government.
If
Labour support falls to 31 per cent and the Conservatives manage 35 per cent then the latter would still be around 15
seats short of an outright majority, but could manage to put together a coalition without the
need to rely on the SNP.
In the Conservative held target
seats that
Labour needed to gain there was a swing towards the Conservatives (presumably because most of these
seats were being contested by first time Conservative incumbents).
He
needs a swing of 2.7 % after minor boundary changes to take the
seat from sitting
Labour MP Gordon Prentice.
After minor boundary changes, Hannah
needs a swing of 8.1 % to gain the
seat from
Labour MP Ben Bradshaw.