In fact,
in seats we are defending against Labour, only just over a quarter of Conservative Defectors now say they will vote UKIP.
Continue reading «Rob Hayward: The Liberal Democrats lost 40 % of the
council seats they were defending but did much better in places where they had an incumbent MP»»
Tory Defectors in
seats we are defending against the Lib Dems have doubts about the party's competence, clarity and values — whereas UKIP voters really are for «none of the above», disliking all three parties, and being interested only in immigration, Europe and defence — though as I found in my previous research, most of those who are attracted to UKIP are not motivated by policy issues at all.
Their faith was misplaced — Lib Dem vote share fell only slightly less
in seats they were defending, nowhere near enough to save most Lib Dems from a 15 percentage point national decline.
Intriguingly, the distribution of the 2015 Labour share of the vote across
the seats they are defending now is very similar to the distribution of their 2010 share of the vote in the Scottish seats that they were defending in 2015.
The Cumbrian semi-rural seat of Copeland was seized by the Conservatives — the first time the main opposition party has lost
a seat it was defending in a byelection since 1982.
[49] None was elected, and the party suffered the loss of the two
seats it was defending, one that it had gained from a former BNP member who had defected to the party and another from an ex-Tory.
The LDs lost 40 % of all
the seats they were defending on May 5th and are now down to roughly 3,000 councillors across the UK.
Some of these Independent candidates are former representatives of existing political parties: for example, the ex-Labour MP Tony Clarke is standing in his old seat of Northampton South (which should helpfully split the Left wing vote in
the seat being defended by Conservative MP Brian Binley), whilst John Stevens, who is challenging John Bercow in Buckingham, is an ultra-europhile former Tory MEP who set up the Pro-Euro Conservative Party before joining the Liberal Democrats.
As things stand, Conservatives are losing about one in three of
the seats they're defending and the Lib Dems are losing roughly one in two.
It's now an extinction level set of results for the fascist party, which is set to lose all
the seats they're defending.
One consequence of this pattern is that the Conservatives are doing worse where they started strongest and particularly in
seats they are defending.
The Liberal Democrats, who were in coalition with the Conservatives at the time; lost ten of their eleven
seats they were defending and won just 6.6 % of the vote share nationally and won just 4 council areas.
If they are indeed losing most heavily in
the seats they are defending they are set to lose several more seats than national polls with uniform swing would predict.
But the latter made one gain and held
the seats they were defending, making this a relative bright spot.
But NYSUT declined to issue endorsements in other Long Island Senate races, including
the seats being defended by Republicans Kemp Hannon and Education Committee Chairman Carl Marcellino.
The Liberal Democrats lost four of the five
seats it was defending, all of which were gained by Labour.
Prof Ralling's calculations are that this would lead to the Conservatives losing 1000 council seats (about a fifth of those they are defending), and the Liberal Democrats will lose 700 (well over a third of the 1850
seats they are defending).
We find that Conservative support is holding up better in its key marginal seats than the rest of the country, and also that the Liberal Democrats are recovering strongly, albeit from a low base, in
the seats they are defending.
In Dudley, UKIP lost six of
the seats it was defending, including the Sedgley ward of MEP Bill Etheridge.
UKIP have lost almost all of
the seats they were defending.
But it is UKIP which has seen the biggest slump - failing to retain any of
the seats they were defending in the Anglia region.
That fall in the LD vote gives them hope in
seats they are defending... They need all the other seats to be at or below 8 %...