Every secular bear cycle prior to our current one followed a secular bull that ended with P / E in or near the red zone.
But in
the secular bear cycles investing is a difficult task and one that at the end of the day may find you distressingly close to where you started.
Not exact matches
When valuations move from elevated levels to historical lows over the span of several market
cycles, the result is a «
secular bear market» and headlines about the permanent death of equities.
The P / E
cycle creates
secular bull and
secular bear markets.
The setting is an elaborately conceived afterlife called Elsewhere, a distinctly
secular island realm of surprising physical solidity (no cottony clouds or pearly gates here), where the dead exist much as they once did — except that no one dies or is
born, and aging occurs in reverse, culminating when the departed are returned to Earth as infants to start the life
cycle again.
These longer
cycles drive what are called «
secular» bull and
bear markets.
Essentially, a
secular bull period comprises several cyclical bull -
bear cycles, where each bull market achieves a successively higher level of market valuation at its peak.
Secular bear markets also involve a series of bull -
bear cycle, but with each
bear market trough achieving successively lower levels of valuation.
Secular bear markets come as a result of speculative bubbles, and you don't purge a speculative bubble with one
bear market
cycle.
Right now, a fourth
secular bear market
cycle is emerging in the stock markets, which may last over the next seven to ten years.
Tags:
Bear Market,
Bear Market
Cycle, Buy and Hold, Dot - Com Bomb, Great Depression, Great Recession, Regional Depression,
Secular Bear Market, Tech Wreck
An average
bear market within a «
secular»
bear market period (a period generally about 17 - 18 years, where valuations begin at rich levels and achieve progressively lower levels over the course of 3 - 4 separate bull -
bear cycles) is about 39 %, and wipes out about 80 % of the preceding bull market advance.