That article concerned
secular bull and bear markets.
In summary, history shows us that the stock market moves in long
secular bull and bear market trends lasting 15 - 20 years on average.
Let's look at
each secular bull and bear market of the Dow over the last 100 years.
I decided to run some research that went back to 1950 and then back to 1928 which includes multiple
secular bull and bear markets to determine whether the «Sell in May and Go Away» strategy had an edge or not and, if so, how good an edge.
It's all about
secular bull and bear markets.
Not exact matches
The key question for investors is whether the
secular bull market remains intact or whether a
bear market
and recession are looming.
Was the March 2009 low the end of a
secular bear market
and the beginning of a
secular bull?
As the underlying economy
and baseline earnings level grew, the market slowly whittled its P / E back to levels associated with typical
secular bull ends
and secular bear starts.
However, after enormous bailouts of the largest financial institutions in the country, as well as the auto industry,
and even more monetary ease than in 2003 (accompanied by TARP, the stimulus plan, QE,
and QE2); we started another cyclical
bull market within the
secular bear market.
The P / E cycle creates
secular bull and secular bear markets.
When the adverse inflation - rate trend reaches its nadir, we will mark the end of this
secular bear and the start of the next
secular bull.
The 1982
secular bull market was preceded
and followed by
secular bear markets that featured lots of sharp rallies
and sell offs, but netted investors nothing after more than a decade.
3) The stock market experiences extended periods of
secular bull markets
and secular bear markets based on the trend in P / E ratios, which is driven by the trend in inflation.
These longer cycles drive what are called «
secular»
bull and bear markets.
From that standpoint, there's no chance that the 2009 low was the beginning of a
secular bull, both because valuations weren't nearly low enough (prospective 10 - year returns briefly exceeded 10 % annually, but were nowhere close to those accompanying the beginning of previous
secular bulls),
and also because at present, valuations are already about the point where one would look for a
secular bear to start.
I feel that stocks are still one of the best investments available due real earnings
and liquidity, but I need to adjust my strategy depending on the kind of market like cyclical
bull market, cyclical
bear market,
secular bull market,
and secular bear market.
An average
bear market within a «
secular»
bear market period (a period generally about 17 - 18 years, where valuations begin at rich levels
and achieve progressively lower levels over the course of 3 - 4 separate
bull -
bear cycles) is about 39 %,
and wipes out about 80 % of the preceding
bull market advance.
During
secular bear markets, there are shorter - term cyclical
bull (upside) moves, but the general trend is sideways
and down.
Bulls, Bears
and P / E10 Predictions I took advantage of Ed Easterling's research to define the beginning
and end of
secular (long lasting)
Bull Markets
and secular Bear Markets.
The book covers the factors that move Gold, why Gold fell into a long
bear market that would end soon, why Gold's
secular bull market would resume
and why gold mining stocks were / are the buy of a lifetime.
I used Ed Easterling's definitions for the timing of long lasting (
secular)
Bull Markets
and Bear Markets during the twentieth century.
It introduced the ability to distinguish among long lasting (
secular)
Bull Markets,
Bear Markets
and Neutral Markets.
I made two quick runs with
Bull Bear Retirement Trainer B. Using what I have learned about stock allocations
and valuations, I made it through 30 years OK withdrawing 5 % in today's (
secular)
Bear Market.
In this study, I quantify the effect of long lasting (
secular) market trends (
bull markets
and bear markets).
Earnings Growth Forecasts May Require a Robust Economic Recovery
Secular Bear Markets
and the Volatility of Inflation Trading Volume Separates
Bull Markets from
Bear Rallies A Stock Market Rebound Closely Linked with Economic Data Surprises Market Valuations During U.S. Recessions Stock Market Valuations Following the Great Moderation Will Global Markets Take Their Lead from the U.S.?
Within a
secular trend, there may be a number of shorter cyclical
bear and bull markets.
Yet, if we accept the notion that
secular bear markets include cyclical
bull markets within them,
and if we recognize the epic nature of the risk - off movement of capital, «
secular» is a more accurate descriptor (than «cyclical»).
A 20 - year
bear market in the Thomson Reuters equal weighted commodity index bottomed in 02»
and began a 11 year
secular bull market right as China
and its billion plus people crossed the tipping point.
Secular bear markets feature sudden, violent rallies
and mini —
bull markets that fool people into thinking they're the genuine article.
As you can see, there were cyclical
bull and bear markets during this long term
secular bear market.
As you can see, this
secular bear market was typical of most
secular bear markets, such as the one from 1966 - 1982, composed of mostly vicious cyclical
bull and bear markets that result in a mostly sideways long term movement.
Within a
secular bull or
bear market there can be several cyclical
bull markets
AND bear markets.