And as this chart shows, we may well have entered a new
secular bull market in 2013, which could bring huge gains over the next decade plus.
In fact, some of the individual periods have provided strong returns, especially when they marked the beginning
of secular bull markets, like in 1942 and the early 1980's.
His views are partially driven by the fact that in the beginning of the
last secular bull market, multiples were low and interest rates were high.
The traditional buy and hold / modern portfolio theory works great during the roughly 17
year secular bull market, as anyone can make money when the overall trend is up.
That's the only way to ensure you won't be watching from the sidelines when the
next secular bull market finally reveals itself.
Technical damage has been done on all but the biggest pictures as we watch for
secular bull market down leg 4 to be put in.
What I want you to take away from this chapter is the knowledge that there is extraordinary excitement in commodities, which are in the early stages of a
historic secular bull market.
Recognizing the characteristics
of secular bull markets, and using a conservative approach to building your diversified portfolio, will help you invest with confidence.
Prior to the
last secular bull market, the market was in a long term secular bear market which lasted from 1966 to 1982.
The
next secular bull market will be born of much more attractive valuations and opportunities than are available to investors here.
Simply put,
secular bull markets begin at valuations that are associated with subsequent 10 - year market returns near 20 % annually.
It is made better if you separate
secular bull markets from secular bear markets (as does Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research).
The charts indicate not only how we far we are in the current
secular bull market which started around 2001, but it also puts it into perspective with data over the 20th century and even the centuries before.
Clearly, silver underperformed gold during the first two years of each of the last three cyclical precious - metals bull markets that occurred
within secular bull markets.
Taking into consideration the fact that there is just two other circumstances when the debt / GDP NYSE margin had increased by about 30 basis points or more in a period of only three months — that happened when the ration had reached its two major
secular bull market highs — the likelihood is highly probable that the NYSE margin debt / US GDP, is once more at its peak of all time high of 2.87 %!
«In the past, at the start of these
big secular bull markets, you have really cheap stocks... I'm not sure we ever got to that point,» he says.
Despite showing this end - of - Secular - Bull - Market period to make my point about market retracements, my technical view with the data currently at hand, as per the market analysis webinar mentioned above, is that the
current Secular Bull Market is in it's first 5 years, not last 5 years...
In our final blog post of 2017, we argued that the 2018 investment «vintage» would likely be defined by history as marking a cyclical turning point within a much
larger secular bull market for global risk assets.
Furthermore, the average is skewed by 1929 and 2000, which were blowoff
secular bull market peaks, whereas we are in a midcycle bull market which should be of less strength.
Although there were two other powerful
secular bull markets such as the periods from 1921 to 1929 and 1949 to 1966, the bull market of 1982 to 2000 was the most significant by far.
While this can be a good strategy in a sideways or bear market, this strategy does not work too well for the option writer in situations such as
secular bull markets involving rapidly rising stock values, or catalysts such as analyst upgrades, surprising positive earnings or unanticipated positive business news etc..
«We are at the beginning stages now of a new bull market that's going to be driven now more by earnings growth and economic expansion as opposed to the nine - year -
old secular bull market that was driven by central bank intervention and political posturing,» the president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh said on «Power Lunch.»
The
average secular bull market lasted 21.2 years and produced a total return of 17.2 percent in nominal terms and 15.9 percent in real terms.
As we enter 2018, we are firmly entrenched in a virtuous, wealth -
creating secular bull market for risk that began in earnest in late 2012.
The following chart (from Too Little to Lock In) provides a view of the sort of valuations we typically see at the beginning of
secular bull market advances, versus where we are at present.
The strategy works well in flat or declining markets, but in
secular bull markets where stock prices rise rapidly, the products mentioned above can underperform.