Big Targets And «
Secular Bull Markets» As Bitcoin added almost 40 % in February from lows of under $ 6000 in some markets, Max Keiser led cautious optimism, celebrating what he called the end of «secular bull market.»
Secular bull markets take a variety of shapes.
Recognizing the characteristics of
secular bull markets, and using a conservative approach to building your diversified portfolio, will help you invest with confidence.
As you can see, the primary trend was up, which is typical for
secular bull markets.
Usually
secular bull markets begin from single digit P / E environments.
Firstly, we have not yet experienced euphoria, well certainly not the type that ends
Secular Bull Markets.
If you look at
the secular bull markets since 1900 to the end of 2000, it seems like the average return has increased for each successive secular bull, but the time has been shorter.
Simply put,
secular bull markets begin at valuations that are associated with subsequent 10 - year market returns near 20 % annually.
In the first part of the book, he makes the case that
secular bull markets are usually followed by secular range - bound markets, in which the drop in P / E ratios negate earnings growth.
The strategy works well in flat or declining markets, but in
secular bull markets where stock prices rise rapidly, the products mentioned above can underperform.
While this can be a good strategy in a sideways or bear market, this strategy does not work too well for the option writer in situations such as
secular bull markets involving rapidly rising stock values, or catalysts such as analyst upgrades, surprising positive earnings or unanticipated positive business news etc..
A cyclical bull market followed the low returns of 1933, and
secular bull markets followed the low returns of the early 1940's and early 1980's.
You'll note that
secular bull markets, as began in 1950 and 1982, were associated with ratios closer to about 0.35.
It is made better if you separate
secular bull markets from secular bear markets (as does Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research).
In contrast, we apply the thesis to
secular bull markets, which are multi-decade phenomena that begin with overt societal apathy and deep intrinsic value.
Secular bull markets don't begin at valuations associated with 3.8 % annual returns for a decade — secular bears do.
When that trend in economic volatility abruptly changed,
the secular bull markets came to an end.
Secular bull markets do not begin because the calendar says they are due.
These secular trends can be seen in the first set of graphs below, which show the three
secular bull markets of last century which occurred from 1918 - 1929, 1950 - 1963, and from 1982 - 2000.
3) The stock market experiences extended periods of
secular bull markets and secular bear markets based on the trend in P / E ratios, which is driven by the trend in inflation.
7) During
secular bull markets, the investment of buy and hold can be very effective.
The 20th century saw three
secular bull markets: The first lasted from 1921 to 1929, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 367 percent.
The Dow's P / E has averaged 16 during the past three years, in the middle of the range during
secular bull markets.
Sometimes, in
secular bull markets, that can be plenty and investors feel secure.
There have been three
secular bull markets since 1920 (not counting the current bull market).
Unfortunately, these analysts don't appear to recognize that
secular bull markets have typically started from valuations literally one - quarter of their present level (see 1949 and 1982), and far below those observed at the 2009 low.
Secular bull markets are great parties.
As the economy or the Fed reverses the adverse inflation - rate trend back toward price stability, P / E will trough at its lows and begin the long climb that drives
secular bull markets.
Let's start with a look at
secular bull markets over the past century.
Secular bull markets are extended periods that cumulatively deliver above - average returns.
Secular bull markets transition into secular bears, which are followed by secular bulls.
Last century saw three
secular Bull markets: The first lasted from 1921 - 29.
Clearly, silver underperformed gold during the first two years of each of the last three cyclical precious - metals bull markets that occurred within
secular bull markets.
«In the past, at the start of these big
secular bull markets, you have really cheap stocks... I'm not sure we ever got to that point,» he says.
It's why Wilson stressed that although we're seeing a cyclical top for US stocks, we're still in the middle of
a secular bull market.
«Our base case (and framework) remains that we are in
a secular bull market, which started in March 2009 and will continue beyond 2013.
We are entering the final leg of the first stage of
the secular bull market which began in 2009.
Raymond James» Jeff Saut sees Trump tariffs inflicting pain, but says
the secular bull market is intact.
«An ongoing
secular bull market is still a decent bet.»
We think
the secular bull market remains intact.
The key question for investors is whether
the secular bull market remains intact or whether a bear market and recession are looming.
A new
secular bull market was right around the corner and...
It's just another number, but the milestone is widely viewed as another sign that
the secular bull market in bonds that's prevailed for decades has ended.
The whole way through
the secular bull market a long streak of no 2 % down days was followed by a decline once one happened.
We note, with a more than a little bit of curiosity, that the last
secular bull market in U.S. stocks began in 1982 — just when the first Boomers turned 35.
Reinvesting during some of these low cycles of
a secular bull market is also a good idea.
I'm also the author of the 2015 book, The Coming Renewal of Gold's
Secular Bull Market and I host a podcast dedicated to bringing you insights and views from the brightest minds in Gold and junior mining.
When valuations move from depressed levels to historical extremes over the span of several market cycles, the result is a «
secular bull market» and headlines about permanently high plateaus.
Generally speaking, all commodities have been in a long - term
secular bull market since the early 2000s.
A monthly close above 91.42 would reignite
the secular bull market in XLE.