Sentences with phrase «secular stagnation»

From the perspective of secular stagnation theory, much of what people worry about in monetary policy is endogenous rather than exogenous — such as zero rates, conditions that give rise to negative long - term rates, decisions to expand balance sheets.

It has been two years since I resurrected Alvin Hansen's secular stagnation idea and suggested its relevance to current conditions in the industrial world.

Here is a transcript of a lecture (along with the associated power point) given at the Bank of Chile Research Conference that updates my thinking on secular stagnation.

Then of course Adair Turner, Debt and Devil, and Summers remedies for Secular Stagnation close the door on the no - option declinist memes.

The article explores how expansionary fiscal policy by the U.S. government can help overcome secular stagnation problems and get growth back on track.

I appreciate that Reifschneider takes seriously the possibility of secular stagnation by including a section on it.

The core idea behind secular stagnation was that the neutral real rate had for a variety of reasons fallen and might well be below zero a substantial part of the time going forward.

It's not secular stagnation, it's Fed induced stagnation.

These capital outflows and the consequent increases in net exports will further reduce demand and neutral real rates in the developed world, thereby exacerbating secular stagnation.

This article was adapted from the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management report «Beyond Secular Stagnation.»

A stumble in such efforts is likely to revive old concerns over secular stagnation and push investors back toward old habits, namely a preference for yield and stable growth.

A full - on globalization backlash could undermine hopes for shifting away from secular stagnation by derailing the nascent recovery in investment spending and productivity growth in the U.S. Global trade tends to boost productivity through fostering of competitive pressures, product specialization, scale economies, global value chains and technology transfer.

Gordon, meanwhile, has argued for what might be called supply - side secular stagnation — a fundamental decline in the rate of productivity growth relative to its golden age, from 1870 to 1970.

Prior to the election, «Investors were resigned to many more years of secular stagnation based on a status - quo election outcome,» Timmer says.

The other reason rising inflation is a good thing is that it suggests secular stagnation — a permanent, low - growth regime — is ending.

However, I fear he is overly sanguine in assuming that even under secular stagnation the Fed will start the next recession with an interest rate of 2 percent, as well as a ten year rate of 3 percent.

Unfortunately, the Fed and other policy setters remain committed to traditional paradigms and so are acting in ways that make secular stagnation more likely.

In more technical economic language secular stagnation is the hypothesis that the IS curve has shifted back and down so that the real interest rate consistent with full employment has declined.

Fourth, the Fed is likely underestimating secular stagnation.

At the end, you exhort your professional colleagues to come up with some new ideas to combat secular stagnation — an excess desire to save rather than invest, with consequent drag on the world economy.

You mentioned secular stagnation.

Professor Summers — I followed the link to your lecture about secular stagnation at the Bank of Chile conference last month.

Summers and other secular stagnation supporters argue that the level of interest rates needed to bring the economy back to full capacity is below the effective lower bound for monetary policy, so central banks are powerless to stimulate enough demand to use up excess supply.

The key to understanding this situation lies in the concept of secular stagnation [5], first put forward by the economist Alvin Hansen in the 1930s.

The point which Ben very appropriately emphasizes is that unmanaged secular stagnation in one place is contagious — that a higher level of saving over investment leading to low interest rates in one place, leads to current account surplus, leads to a capital outflow, which then leads to currency depreciation, leads to currency appreciation in other places, and leads therefore to spreading low demand and low interest rates everywhere.

If it were possible to avoid secular stagnation, then it would indeed be possible to increase average levels of output substantially, raising the stakes for demand management policy.

If each of the countries facing secular stagnation today were to confront it successfully on its own, the results would be very favorable for the global economy.

Secular stagnation occurs when neutral real interest rates are sufficiently low that they can not be achieved through conventional central - bank policies.

So mitigating secular stagnation is of profound importance.

Secular stagnation also increases the danger of competitive monetary easing and even of currency wars.

That is why primary responsibility for addressing secular stagnation should rest with fiscal policy.

In much the same way, secular stagnation does not reveal a profound or inherent flaw in capitalism.

In a nutshell, Secular Stagnation posits that the global economy suffers from a structural lack of aggregate demand and a chronic excess of desired savings over desired investment; this results in permanently low levels of economic growth, inflation and interest rates.

Labour should focus on overcoming these challenges — which may require the slaying of some Labour sacred cows — and not presume that we are stuck in an inescapable secular stagnation.

This conundrum shares some characteristics and common roots with the theory of secular stagnation; in both scenarios, interest rates, growth, and inflation are persistently low (Summers 2015).

The theory behind secular stagnation is that the economy grows very slowly, and as a result, inflation and bond yields stay contained.

I think a little bit about Larry Summers, who continues to talk about secular stagnation for example.

Jury is still out on secular stagnation — «At present, it looks likely that the equilibrium interest rate will remain low for the policy - relevant future, but there have in the past been both long swings and short - term changes in what can be thought of as equilibrium real rates»

While the combination of secular headwinds and policy missteps help explain an unprecedented time of economic malaise, positioning for secular stagnation «may not be the right playbook for investors,» says Asset Allocation Strategist Joe Pickhardt.

Well - intentioned proposals to curtail prospective pension benefits, in contrast, might make matters even worse by encouraging increased saving and reduced consumption, thus exacerbating secular stagnation.

A stumble in such efforts is likely to revive old concerns over secular stagnation and push investors back toward old habits, namely a preference for yield and stable growth.

The global economy is moving from secular stagnation to cyclical recovery.

This was described in prior analyses, including «It's not secular stagnation; it's the tech and trade transformation.»

For these and other companies, Alberta continues to offer an island of pre-2008 growth in a world overshadowed by secular stagnation.

More than half think the world's developed economies have hit a prolonged period of slower growth — or what they call «secular stagnation.»

(1) The demand and supply sides of secular stagnation.