I don't expect major changes in national vote share in 2020 necessarily but we could
see UKIP still around 10 - 15 %, losing votes to the Tories in marginal seats but profiting from a post referendum backlash at the Tories expense in Essex, Kent and Lincolnshire etc and old labour areas like Sunderland, county Durham, Rotherham, Oldham etc which the Tories have abandoned.
I'm not sure if BNP are planning on standing anyone here again but if they don't I could
see UKIP scoring 20 % here, taking the majority of the BNP votes and a lot of Cons votes and a few from the Lab and LD.
I see UKIP are now seeking legal advice.
In a multi-party system, being a polarising figure is not always a terrible thing so I would not be surprised to
see Ukip get at least a temporary bump from tonight's debate.
There is a great danger that the response to this challenge will sound something like this: Labour's internal democratisation simply empowers «good» working class people — plainly, those who are receptive to a left - wing political agenda — while there is in any case no point in engaging a dialogue with the «bad» working class people who hold socially conservative views, resent immigration and
see UKIP rather than Labour as the «party of work.»
The story is about Labour voters that feel Labour doesn't represent them and
see UKIP as a viable alternative.
There are old Labour supporters who
see Ukip nibbling into the party's working - class base in the north of England and urge tougher positions in response.
«I'm disappointed but not entirely surprised to
see that UKIP are trying to hitch a publicity ride on the back of the show.»
It's good to
see UKIP Wales have put those issues behind them (link).
Turning to UKIP, most people do tend to
see UKIP as a protest party (57 %) rather than a serious party (20 %)-- but amongst UKIP voters themselves 71 % think they are a serious party with workable policies.
David Cameron and William Hague declined to continue the offensive, which peaked at the weekend, in media appearances this morning as a combination of euroscepticism, fears about immigration and a looming protest vote combined to
see Ukip's performance spike.
The Conservatives appear poised to gain some votes from their coalition partners while UKIP continue to pick up votes from all three main political parties (
see UKIP: Picking up lumps of old Labour support?).
Most voters, including a majority of Conservatives, would be unhappy to
see UKIP as part of a coalition government.
Major losses for the Liberal Democrats could
see Ukip emerge with more councillors than the coalition partner.
But we need to
see UKIP in their proper context: firstly, they are a minority party and will stay there; secondly, they are growing in working class areas where the Labour Party's cultural shift left have lost longstanding voters.
Farage
sees UKIP having a similar impact on the Tory Party.
Party's drive to woo City investors, shown in leaked internal 2012 report,
saw Ukip outspend Labour for first time last May
The Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and Labour leader Ed Miliband faced their first public appearances since the disappointing polls which
seen Ukip take votes in key areas across the country.
Lord Heseltine said «we have
seen UKIPs before», as he drew parallels with Enoch Powell in the 1960s and Le - Pen - style politicians in France, Germany and Holland.
By contrast, Mr Corbyn and his allies have today sought to stress the significance of that victory, which
saw Ukip leader Paul Nuttall pushed into second place.
The 2012 by - election and 2015 general election
saw UKIP finish second.
Not exact matches
«I
see Macron as the enemy,» said Nigel Farage, the former leader of the UK Independence Party (
UKIP) who was a key player in the Brexit vote, and now backs Le Pen.
Ukip's acting leader has revealed he wouldn't want to personally
see any new mosques built in the UK as «Islam doesn't allow a Christian church or a Sikh temple to be built in its heartland, because it's in the Koran».
Ukip's acting leader has revealed he wouldn't want to personally
see any new mosques built in the UK... More
«We believe that the Conservatives at the next election need to be
seen to be taking on the big, difficult issues facing society and not be distracted by the
Ukip agenda of Europe and immigration.»
We've
seen the system used very effectively by the Greens and very effectively by
Ukip, and it's really at the point that you start to threaten the vote that you can have an impact.»
The old lady who answers the door somewhere in Hertfordshire and
sees not one but three
Ukip rosettes on her door wrinkles her face.
But Labour insiders are now increasingly confident that the party can
see off Nuttall after a disastrous few days for the
Ukip leader.
Some might say that
UKIP remains the odd - one out here, but while Farage, in his tweed suit, may exude lamentation for a bygone era, others in the party are fully signed up to the future, and what's more, they
see at as theirs for the taking.
It is hard to
see any useful role for him in Britain: there is no national populist upsurge; those that vote
UKIP will never listen to him; he is now also widely disliked within the modern Labour Party, as unfair as that might be.
The
Ukip leader said the move was the «bravest, noblest, most honourable thing I've
seen in British politics in my life».
UKIP (the UK Independence Party) and Labour
saw the biggest gains over the course of the period studied, and they also
saw plenty of activity on Facebook.
As we can
see, the hypothesis that
UKIP vote is driven by experience of change in the local area can be rejected — in fact Pearson correlations between
UKIP vote and increases in the share of each immigrant group are negative.
With so much of the 2015
UKIP vote now embedded in the Tory Coalition, and with Labour now more officially a party of soft Brexit, it is very difficult to
see how the next election will play out.
The region summed up: The first region to declare
saw a significant surge for
Ukip, setting the tone for an evening of shocks — especially for the coalition's governing parties.
Ukip's extraordinary surge in the polls appears to have faltered, after a new poll
saw them lose a third of their support and fall back to level with the Liberal Democrats.
Although the party originallyfocused around Conservative euroscepticism rather than immigration, relative to supporters of other parties
UKIP sympathisers are much more likely to
see immigration as the single most important issue facing the country (
see figure 1).
While
UKIP has few / no MPs it is not unreasonable to say that they have taken votes away from the Conservative party in recent years and potential
UKIP voters are
seen by many as key in some marginal constituencies especially in «working class» areas where many voters are socially to the right and economically to the left.
Firstly that they
see this as an opportunity to increase their majority at the expense of Labour and
UKIP both of which are now in rather awkward positions and secondly that the current leadership has inherited a bit of an awkward position themselves in that they are committed to a process which is both diplomatically and politically potentially very difficult and dangerous and if it all goes horribly wrong they are really out on a limb so if they get a fresh mandate they can at least blame the voters.
But we have also
seen its political mobilisation: in resentment at Scottish power in Westminster, in the sinister street theatre of the English Defence League and its offshoots, and in the rise of
UKIP.
«This stuff matters because we can
see what's happened with
Ukip - people have talked about them the whole time,» Lucas said.
Labour kept the seat with ease, but the rise of
UKIP and the Greens the previous year
saw them both turn in very creditible performances of 18 % and 11 % respectively.
The 2017 County Council elections
saw a county - wide wipeout of
UKIP.
The 2015 general election
saw a large vote in Essex for the UK Independence Party (
UKIP), with its only MP, Douglas Carswell, retaining the seat of Clacton that he had won in a 2014 by - election, and other strong performances, notably in Thurrock and Castle Point.
Survation's canvas for the Daily Record suggested
Ukip might take six per cent of the list vote, which, according to Weber Shandwick's Scotland Votes seat predicting tool would
see the party with a sizeable presence in the Scottish parliament.
How many Conservative voters in these constituencies will consider lending their votes to
UKIP having
seen that Labour can be beaten locally for the first time in decades?
This
saw them contesting seats on councils, using that as a springboard to winning parliamentary representation — which has also been done by other small parties, with
UKIP recently adopting such a strategy.
They
saw Michael Howard knocked off course by
UKIP's success in 2004 but they also
saw that it did not translate into anything at the following year's General Election.
It is not hard to
see why: my research finds that 12 % of those who voted Tory in 2010 now say they would vote
UKIP in an election tomorrow.
It is the Conservatives who have
seen ministers resign, MPs deselected and defectors to
Ukip.