From this standpoint, it is encouraging to
see correlations returning to normal as major central banks normalize monetary policy — a natural part of the economic cycle.
Not exact matches
It's not as though stock markets went up due to above trend growth or productivity and it's hard not to look at a chart of the
returns generated by long - dated gilts and property over the last 30 years and not
see some
correlation.
How this affects gold's prices and future
returns remains to be
seen, but at least gold, with lower
correlation coefficients, is resuming its role as a proper risk diversifier.
Citing 1993 and 2000 as evidence — years that
saw low volatility and a steep drop in inter-stock
correlation eventually
return to historical norms — Kolanovic does not believe this divergence - driven stability will last.
For this reason, VIX and SPY daily
returns are strongly negatively correlated, as
seen in the
correlation matrix below.
As you can
see we have a direct
correlation between an increased over / under and an improved
return on investment (ROI).
As you can
see, there's a direct
correlation between decreasing public support and increasing profits as evidenced by the
return on investment.
As you can
see, there's a direct
correlation between lower starting pitcher walk rates and increasing
returns for moneyline bettors.
Without a clear
correlation between ads and sales, it can be hard to shell out cash when you don't know if you'll
see a
return on your investment.
As of the first quarter of 2012, Turkey had a public debt balance equal to 43 % of annual GDP, making it one of the better financed governments in all of Europe (
see how the fiscal strength of many emerging markets like Turkey in High Yield International Bond ETFs can deliver strong
returns with low
correlation).
But I haven't
seen any convincing argument that foreign bonds are able to achieve that purpose once you account for the full costs of hedging (The DFA article mentions volatility and
correlation but not
returns net of hedging costs).
I saved the next chart until you could first
see the strong
correlation between the margin - adjusted CAPE and actual subsequent S&P 500 total
returns across history.
Because of both the low
correlation and absolute
returns, hedge funds are often
seen as an alternative to fixed income (bonds) investments.
Indeed, the only reason that
correlation isn't 100 % is that the only way to establish extreme overvaluation or undervaluation is for the market to overshoot or undershoot the
return one would have expected a decade earlier (
see What Does That Difference Mean?).
On the contrary, since the 1940's, the ratio of equity market value to GDP has demonstrated a 90 %
correlation with subsequent 10 - year total
returns on the S&P 500 (
see Investment, Speculation, Valuation, and Tinker Bell), and the present level is associated with projected annual total
returns on the S&P 500 of just over 3 % annually.
An additional benefit of these two investment choices is that their
returns are negatively correlated to other markets, so as one product is underperforming the other is providing
return (
See Correlation Table).
As far as
correlation, look at how correlated the price of oil has been to stock market
returns recently: At one time the relationship was somewhat hidden but now the causality is plain to
see.