AFTER the fact, we hear explanations, but if we don't have enough information to
see decadal changes coming, how can we be certain the rapid rise from ~ 1980 - 2000 wasn't at least 50 % due to a combination of decadal factors (due to the uncertainty in our models, as demonstrated by failure to predict the slowdown)?
Not exact matches
A study relating to this — «Our study confirms many
changes seen in upper Arctic Ocean circulation in the 1990s were mostly
decadal in nature, rather than trends caused by global warming,» said Morison.
~ Our study confirms many
changes seen in upper Arctic Ocean circulation in the 1990s were mostly
decadal in nature, rather than trends caused by global warming,» / / www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2007-131 [ANDY REVKIN comments: That's precisely what I wrote in the Science Times feature on Arctic ice in September (link is in the post).
The declining signal over India shown by the GPCP
decadal mode is broadly consistent with gauge measurements since the 1950s — that several research groups including my own are trying to understand, perhaps relating to emissions of anthropogenic aerosol — although there are discrepancies between these gauge - based data sets themselves (
see our recent review in Nature Climate
Change, for example).
Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud
Changes Associated with the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Reposted here from weatherquestions.com UPDATED — 10/20/08
See discussion section 4...
It is possible that such
changes could significantly influence
decadal tidal gauge trends, e.g.,
see Gratiot et al., 2008 (Abstract; Google Scholar access) or Currie, 1987 (Abstract).
With both annual and
decadal change in LOD lagging
change in SST it is difficult to
see LOD as driver.
Greg: With both annual and
decadal change in LOD lagging
change in SST it is difficult to
see LOD as driver.
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a naturally occurring pattern of sea surface temperature
change that is
seen in the North Atlantic Ocean on
decadal timescales and affects weather and climate.
«Observational evidence of
decadal change in cloud cover is
seen in a 2009 study by Amy Clements and colleagues using surface observation of clouds from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS).
Abrupt climate
changes can be
seen working through the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode, the Artic Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole and other measures of ocean and atmospheric states.
As you can
see in the first graph sudden and noticeable climate
change on a
decadal basis is very common.
Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud
Changes Associated with the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Reposted here from weatherquestions.com UPDATED — 10/20/08
See discussion section 4 by Roy W. Spencer (what follows is a simplified version of a paper I am preparing to submit GRL for publication, hopefully by the end of October 2008)...
«These campaigns are going to help us better predict the
changes we may
see on seasonal scales, and even
decadal scales.»
Based on the understanding of both the physical processes that control key climate feedbacks (
see Section 8.6.3), and also the origin of inter-model differences in the simulation of feedbacks (
see Section 8.6.2), the following climate characteristics appear to be particularly important: (i) for the water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, the response of upper - tropospheric RH and lapse rate to interannual or
decadal changes in climate; (ii) for cloud feedbacks, the response of boundary - layer clouds and anvil clouds to a
change in surface or atmospheric conditions and the
change in cloud radiative properties associated with a
change in extratropical synoptic weather systems; (iii) for snow albedo feedbacks, the relationship between surface air temperature and snow melt over northern land areas during spring and (iv) for sea ice feedbacks, the simulation of sea ice thickness.
Abrupt climate
change is
seen on
decadal to millennial scales.
This can be
seen in the Pacific Ocean — a very significant driver of interannual to
decadal hydrologic and climate variability — in
changes in hydrology and ocean states around 1910, the mid 1940's, the late 1970's and after 1998.