Not exact matches
yields will hit the highs on close end of the day...
equity markets setting up to be slammed tomorrow maybe but today they have run over weak shorts in the face of rates... the federal reserve
see's this and again will wonder if they are behind on hikes, strong data, major expansion in credit, lack of wage growth rising bond yields and ballooning debt... rates will go much higher and
equities will have revelations as to what that means for
valuations
As we begin to observe more reasonable
valuations in the general
equity market, you'll
see us respond the same way in the Strategic Growth Fund.
We
see opportunities in emerging
market equities, as economic reforms, improving corporate fundamentals and reasonable
valuations provide support.
Robust consumer spending is typically a friendly factor for the
equity market, and may provide a reason to maintain
equity exposure, in my view, despite high
equity valuations seen over the past year and the lack of any significant
market correction.
Advisers sharply increased allocations of client assets to U.S.
equities, but some planners are cautioning against piling into a
market where they
see valuations as being too high.
The amount of an instrument (
equity, future, option commodity etc.) that they can buy in one day will be governed by a number of things, most notably how much cash or credit they have (they normally have more cash and cash equivalents on hand than most human beings will
see in their life), how much they can afford to move the
market price (including how fair they think the
valuation is currently) and the liquidity of the
market for the instrument as a whole.
Lower rates do not always and everywhere imply higher
equity valuations —
see Japan over the past 25 years — two bear
markets of 60 % each in a ZIRP environment.
On the contrary, since the 1940's, the ratio of
equity market value to GDP has demonstrated a 90 % correlation with subsequent 10 - year total returns on the S&P 500 (
see Investment, Speculation,
Valuation, and Tinker Bell), and the present level is associated with projected annual total returns on the S&P 500 of just over 3 % annually.
If you were 100 per cent in
equities, that's not really a balanced portfolio, and given current
valuations, I'd
see this morning's flat
market opening as an opportunity to take off a bit of
equity risk: far better to do so when
markets are up or flat than when they are plummeting, which is evidently the fear everywhere in the world except — ironically — in the United States itself.
«Yes it's the worst bear
market since 2000 - 02, and stocks are trading at
valuations not
seen in decades, but
equities will come back.»
• Looking at individual
markets again, we
see that the most attractive
markets are generally the crisis - ridden European
equity markets and in particular Greece which currently has such low
valuations that real returns over the next five years could come close to 100 %.
Jean - Marie Eveillard Video on
Market Cycles Jean - Marie mentions that throughout his career there have almost always been opportunities to invest in
equities but that there are some «
valuation problems» arising from the risks he
sees ahead, partly because of the unintended consequences of quantitative easing: «To my mind quantitative easing is a monstrosity — money is not supposed to be free for heaven's sake.
So what you're
seeing is lots of private
equity money recognizing the
valuation gap in the REIT
market and starting to come into the
market.