We do not
see equity valuation metrics falling back to historical means in an environment where earnings are staging a sustained recovery and long - term rates are low.
As a result, we do not
see equity valuation metrics falling back to historical averages.
Not exact matches
yields will hit the highs on close end of the day...
equity markets setting up to be slammed tomorrow maybe but today they have run over weak shorts in the face of rates... the federal reserve
see's this and again will wonder if they are behind on hikes, strong data, major expansion in credit, lack of wage growth rising bond yields and ballooning debt... rates will go much higher and
equities will have revelations as to what that means for
valuations
The company's strengths can be
seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, reasonable
valuation levels, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures and notable return on
equity.
The company's strengths can be
seen in multiple areas, such as its reasonable
valuation levels, expanding profit margins, largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures and notable return on
equity.
Event - driven and long short
equity managers, for instance, have overall
seen rosier average gains over the past 12 — 18 months on the back of investors» growing focus on company - specific events, earnings growth, balance sheets and
valuations of individual securities across different sectors and regions.
It turns out that he is still right, and the effect of being right is that
equities are far more overvalued than may be evident even on measures like the Shiller CAPE (see An Open Letter to the FOMC: Recognizing the Valuation Bubble in Eq
equities are far more overvalued than may be evident even on measures like the Shiller CAPE (
see An Open Letter to the FOMC: Recognizing the
Valuation Bubble in
EquitiesEquities).
On the profits front, we've developed a number of approaches over the years to understand what drives cyclical fluctuations in profit margins (
see for example Recognizing the
Valuation Bubble in
Equities and The Coming Retreat in Corporate Earnings).
The company's strengths can be
seen in multiple areas, such as its notable return on
equity, attractive
valuation levels, expanding profit margins, good cash flow from operations and increase in stock price during the past year.
Equity valuation worsened a little last week as U.S. inflation rose from 1.6 % in January to 2.0 % in February, a level that looks like a strong anchor for inflation (
see below).
In particular, we continue to
see strong fundamentals and reasonable
valuations in U.S.
equities, and we continue to favor cyclically - oriented sectors such as Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Industrials, along with Health Care.
Some members of the FOMC apparently «commented that the recent decline in
equity prices needs to be viewed in the context of overall
valuation levels, which they
saw as relatively high, and a couple noted that volatility had begun to subside,» according to the Fed's minutes.
Still, we
see the economic and earnings backdrop as positive for
equities, with fuller valuations a potential drag, especially in the U.S. Equities in Japan, the only major region to see multiple contraction in 2017, look well pos
equities, with fuller
valuations a potential drag, especially in the U.S.
Equities in Japan, the only major region to see multiple contraction in 2017, look well pos
Equities in Japan, the only major region to
see multiple contraction in 2017, look well positioned.
Because as investors if you're looking at this current contemporary global macroeconomic backdrop from the 10 - 12 year perspective, I find it with the typical disclosure here that I'm not able to
see with a perfect crystal ball or anything but it's hard to believe that traditional assets, that global
equities, will be thriving in this environment just from the simple perspective of how overstretched they are from any reasonable measure of
valuation.
As we begin to observe more reasonable
valuations in the general
equity market, you'll
see us respond the same way in the Strategic Growth Fund.
First, the «returns on
equities» here are typically taken to be earnings yields, which as we've frequently noted, are affected by cyclical variations in profit margins that make them notoriously poor indicators of long - term prospective returns (
see Two Point Three Sigmas Above the Norm and Margins, Multiples and the Iron Law of
Valuation).
We
see opportunities in emerging market
equities, as economic reforms, improving corporate fundamentals and reasonable
valuations provide support.
So, despite stocks being at
valuation lows we hadn't
seen in decades, they tempered their enthusiasm for
equities because of a negative macro overlay.
For example, the safe withdrawal rate changes over time depending on
equity valuations and the safe withdrawal rate can be vastly different depending on your age and expectations about Social Security,
see two case studies I did recently at ChooseFI and last week here on our blog.
We use those
valuations that we
see in various asset classes (not only in
equities), as our road map.
Equities are currently the third highest in
valuation terms we have ever
seen.
Robust consumer spending is typically a friendly factor for the
equity market, and may provide a reason to maintain
equity exposure, in my view, despite high
equity valuations seen over the past year and the lack of any significant market correction.
Returning to Mr. Hibbert, he would appear to share this view: «Given that the starting
valuation for
equities is now very low, then if those companies can continue to increase their earnings profile I think you will
see very strong returns because you will get both capital growth and dividend yield.»
Combined with earnings growth, we
see these returns of capital to shareholders offsetting some
valuation challenges: Investors are typically unwilling to bid up
equity valuation multiples when rising interest rates and inflation threaten to erode corporate profit margins.
Advisers sharply increased allocations of client assets to U.S.
equities, but some planners are cautioning against piling into a market where they
see valuations as being too high.
The amount of an instrument (
equity, future, option commodity etc.) that they can buy in one day will be governed by a number of things, most notably how much cash or credit they have (they normally have more cash and cash equivalents on hand than most human beings will
see in their life), how much they can afford to move the market price (including how fair they think the
valuation is currently) and the liquidity of the market for the instrument as a whole.
Lower rates do not always and everywhere imply higher
equity valuations —
see Japan over the past 25 years — two bear markets of 60 % each in a ZIRP environment.
I
see you also have some thoughts about the current CAPE and
equity valuations.
Some like Rebetez would have liked to
see a value screen for U.S.
equities, given the high
valuations that have arisen in the Trump rally.
In other words don't count on that cash being returned to shareholders or even invested in passive investments (private or public
equity) for the benefit of shareholders; A liquidation
valuation really isn't of interest here as Glassbridge is set to be an ongoing business and I can
see an operating cash bleed for 3 - 5 years depending on how long it takes the company to attract enough AUM to cover operating (read staffing) costs.
On the contrary, since the 1940's, the ratio of
equity market value to GDP has demonstrated a 90 % correlation with subsequent 10 - year total returns on the S&P 500 (
see Investment, Speculation,
Valuation, and Tinker Bell), and the present level is associated with projected annual total returns on the S&P 500 of just over 3 % annually.
If you were 100 per cent in
equities, that's not really a balanced portfolio, and given current
valuations, I'd
see this morning's flat market opening as an opportunity to take off a bit of
equity risk: far better to do so when markets are up or flat than when they are plummeting, which is evidently the fear everywhere in the world except — ironically — in the United States itself.
«Yes it's the worst bear market since 2000 - 02, and stocks are trading at
valuations not
seen in decades, but
equities will come back.»
• Looking at individual markets again, we
see that the most attractive markets are generally the crisis - ridden European
equity markets and in particular Greece which currently has such low
valuations that real returns over the next five years could come close to 100 %.
You'll
see more about
equity valuations in my next post.
Jean - Marie Eveillard Video on Market Cycles Jean - Marie mentions that throughout his career there have almost always been opportunities to invest in
equities but that there are some «
valuation problems» arising from the risks he
sees ahead, partly because of the unintended consequences of quantitative easing: «To my mind quantitative easing is a monstrosity — money is not supposed to be free for heaven's sake.
Valuations were down and homeowners in the area
saw their
equity disappear overnight.
So what you're
seeing is lots of private
equity money recognizing the
valuation gap in the REIT market and starting to come into the market.
The larger REITs have
seen large buying for yield seekers, ETFs and asset allocators that has driven the
valuation of large REITS like Simon Properties (SPG) and Mr. Zell's own
Equity Residential Properties (EQR) prices up to 2 times book value and higher, while many of the smaller ones have languished and trade at discounts to their asset value.