Re 42 Gavin, it seem we have to wait a bit more to
see polar ice sheets growing for more heat when yr models have continuously overestimated polar amplification, please see:
Not exact matches
Polar amplication is of global concern due to the potential effects of future warming on
ice sheet stability and, therefore, global sea level (
see Sections 5.6.1, 5.8.1 and Chapter 13) and carbon cycle feedbacks such as those linked with permafrost melting (
see Chapter 6)... The magnitude of
polar amplification depends on the relative strength and duration of different climate feedbacks, which determine the transient and equilibrium response to external forcings.
«Borehole temperatures in the
ice sheets spanning the last 6000 years show Antarctica repeatedly warming when Greenland cooled, and vice versa... The phenomena has been called the
polar see -
saw... Attempts to account for it have included the hypothesis of a south - flowing warm ocean current with a built in time lag... There is (however) no significant delay in the Anarctica climate anomaly...
The layers in multi-year
ice (mainly formed when
sheets of thin first - year
ice pancake) do help baby seals, but
polar bears happily walk on first - year
ice thin enough to
see through (don't take my word for it; watch the film Arctic Tale).
I've actually
seen videos of the melting
polar ice and a
sheet of
ice the size of (was it Delaware?)
An emaciated
polar bear is
seen on a small
sheet of
ice in this image taken in August in Svalbard, north of mainland Norway.
Since to me (and many scientists, although some wanted a lot more corroborative evidence, which they've also gotten) it makes absolutely no sense to presume that the earth would just go about its merry way and keep the climate nice and relatively stable for us (though this rare actual climate scientist pseudo skeptic seems to think it would, based upon some non scientific belief —
see second half of this piece), when the earth changes climate easily as it is, climate is ultimately an expression of energy, it is stabilized (right now) by the oceans and
ice sheets, and increasing the number of long term thermal radiation / heat energy absorbing and re radiating molecules to levels not
seen on earth in several million years would add an enormous influx of energy to the lower atmosphere earth system, which would mildly warm the air and increasingly transfer energy to the earth over time, which in turn would start to alter those stabilizing systems (and which, with increasing ocean energy retention and accelerating
polar ice sheet melting at both ends of the globe, is exactly what we've been
seeing) and start to reinforce the same process until a new stases would be reached well after the atmospheric levels of ghg has stabilized.
Based on what he's
seen in the Arctic, and on the latest science, Zukunft said he's planning for six feet of sea level rise by the end of the century, as
polar ice sheets and glaciers melt.