Frankly, it's not all that surprising to
see public bettors flocking to this game considering Kentucky is involved and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN2.
Both clubs have been playing well over the last couple matches, but I'm still surprised to
see public bettors taking a side in this one.
I wouldn't be surprised to
see public bettors inflate this line until game time, but fade the public and go with the draw at +230 odds.
Not exact matches
It's extremely rare to
see double - digit road favorites, but that hasn't stopped
public bettors from hammering the Patriots.
We will continue to monitor these lines and trends, and it will be interesting to
see whether
public bettors start consistently backing the Vikings.
As you can
see from the screenshot below, the majority of
public bettors are taking Michigan at all seven of our contributing sportsbooks.
With
bettors seeing the recent trends and the game taking place during the 4PM slate, there is going to be an absolute
public onslaught on the Cowboys.
Sportsbooks and sharp
bettors have been high on the Falcons, and even with the
public support it would be surprising to
see this line get to +3.
As you can
see from the line history above,
public bettors on FSU +7.5 or +7 were already taking the «sharp» side.
As you can
see from the screenshot below, the majority of
public bettors are taking Kansas at all seven of our contributing sportsbooks.
Bettors taking a simple contrarian strategy have likely made a killing while square public bettors are probably in deep with loan sharks... hoping that their kneecaps survive to see anoth
Bettors taking a simple contrarian strategy have likely made a killing while square
public bettors are probably in deep with loan sharks... hoping that their kneecaps survive to see anoth
bettors are probably in deep with loan sharks... hoping that their kneecaps survive to
see another day.
We
saw that «betting against the
public» — especially around the 25 % level — can give sports
bettors a slight edge against the sportsbooks.
It's still early in the week and the
public betting trends can still change dramatically before tip - off, but we're already
seeing the majority of spread
bettors backing the underdog in three Sweet 16 games.
In addition to this one - sided
public betting on the moneyline, we've also
seen bettors taking Texas in parlays and on the runline.
Assuming that
public bettors continue to hammer American League teams, it will be interesting to
see whether they continue to post positive returns over the coming seasons.
By utilizing our
public betting trends from seven contributing sportsbooks, we're able to
see which teams the
public bettors love and bet on the opposite side.
The Warriors are the most
public team in the league, so it's not surprising to
see bettors taking them to cover.
This season has
seen historically high levels of
public support for AL teams during interleague play, and contrarian
bettors can exploit this tendency by backing NL ball clubs.
Public bettors love taking overs, but in this matchup we're actually
seeing over 60 % of bets on the UNDER.
We will continue to monitor these lines and trends, and it will be interesting to
see whether
public bettors continue to take the Bears.
It will be interesting to
see whether this higher volume impacts the value of betting against the
public, but regardless there are several profitable strategies for contrarian
bettors to implement.
After
seeing that some of our traditional contrarian strategies have had mixed results for second half
bettors, we believed that we could create an excellent halftime betting system by capitalizing on
public perception.
It's possible these betting trends change before tip - off, but it's fascinating to
see one of the nation's top teams receiving such limited support from
public bettors.
«
Public bettors will
see the over 68 and think it's a steal considering Golden State broke the record last year.
With the postseason underway, we typically
see a large change in
public betting with
bettors far more likely to take underdogs than they are during the regular season.
Based on these recent performances, it's not surprising to
see that
public bettors have been pounding the Cardinals.
As you can
see from the table below, betting against the
public has not been an effective strategy for second half
bettors.
Another interesting aspect is the Total and the % of bets that are coming in on either side — while
public bettors have a tendency to take favorites and overs, this game
sees just 22 % of bets on the over at a number of 138.
Cleveland still hasn't won a game this season and they're +125 to finish the season with a 0 - 16 record, so it's not entirely surprising to
see them being largely ignored by
public bettors.
As you can
see, fading the
public has been incredibly profitable for NBA
bettors — particularly at the 25 % threshold.
As we often
see when two top ranked teams face off,
public bettors have been more than happy to take Michigan State and the points.
Public bettors do like the Over at each contributing book, but we haven't
seen any increase in the total.
When the spread is less than three - points,
bettors often gravitate towards the moneyline, and we have
seen similar one - sided
public betting on the Steelers to win straight up.
Often times
public bettors shy away from betting the draw, which is why you'll usually
see betting percentages very lopsided on the favorite.
Everton / West Brom is a great example this week where most
public bettors see a line of Everton +160 and get sucked in.
This season no game has
seen less than 22 % of
public bets on the over, and the first profitable data point comes when there are less than 35 % of
bettors taking the over (21 - 19, +1.97 units).
Although
public betting is fairly balanced, it will be interesting to
see if
public bettors pounce on North Carolina as game time approaches.
By utilizing our
public betting trends from seven contributing sportsbooks, we are able to
see which teams are being pounded by a majority of
public bettors.
It's not entirely shocking to
see this type of line movement in games with extreme levels of one - sided
public betting, but
bettors may be surprised to know just how much the line is moving.
Public bettors are
seeing the big underdog lines and taking them, so I think there's actually value on the other side by parlaying the favorites at +112 odds.
It's incredibly rare to
see such a high percentage of
bettors pounding the under as past research indicates that
public bettors overwhelmingly favor the over.
We have
seen similar
public betting at William Hill where a majority of
bettors are taking the over, but far more money has taken the under.
Historically
bettors tend to pound favorites and overs, so
seeing this level of
public betting on the under comes as a major surprise.
It's easy to
see why
public bettors are taking Houston.
During the regular season we typically
see a majority of
public bettors taking the favorite, but that trend is typically turned on its head during the playoffs.
After
seeing the line dip back to 5.5,
public bettors continued to pound Carolina and the line once again moved from -5.5 to -6 on Saturday, January 30th at 2:29 PM eastern.
It's also worth noting that the Red Sox are consistently one of the most popular teams amongst casual
bettors, so it wouldn't be surprising to
see the moneyline shaded to account for
public money — especially in Sale's first few starts of the season.
Nearly 60 % of
public bettors are loading up on Burnley at a price of +134 but we've actually
seen the line move away from them.
While recreational
bettors can't get enough of the «over», sharp
bettors see this as an opportunity to buyback the
public overreaction by playing the «under».
9 of the 12 games in action on Thursday night are
seeing > 75 % of bets on the Over, but that could spell doom for
public bettors.