As the Washington Post puts it, the aerosol «mask» is being lifted away, and scientists are beginning to
see regional warming as a result.
Not exact matches
In contrast, the consensus view among paleoclimatologists is that the Medieval
Warming Period was a
regional phenomenon, that the worldwide nature of the Little Ice Age is open to question and that the late 20th century
saw the most extreme global average temperatures.
With Arctic ice retreating more and more as local summers heat up, exposing ever more cold northern waters to
warming sunshine — along with a host of other
regional changes — it remains to be
seen exactly how sensitive global climate really is.
Though I would comment re: 1931 that
regional warm events are not necessarily correlated very well with El Nino conditions e.g. 2006 was the
warmest year on record in the UK (HadCET), and 2003
saw a record hot summer in western Europe.
Furthermore, decline in snow cover and sea ice will tend to amplify
regional warming through snow and ice - albedo feedback effects (
see Glossary and Chapter 9).
I haven't thought much about the THC although I've expressed doubt about
seeing large
regional cooling if it did shut down or change direction, mainly because global
warming is so rapid that any cooling effect with time would be dampened by
warming factors going on.
What we
see is widespread
warming (with a few exceptions such as
regional East Antarctic cooling)
I
see no contradiction between CET being correlated with global temperature and CET showing
regional warming attributable to local industry.
... «When you hear a phrase like he said, «the highest ever,» you know, «off the charts,» «record setting,» that's a good sign that on top of a whatever local weather patterns there are or
regional like El Nino, global
warming, fossil fuel driven climate change is putting its finger on the scale and juicing the atmosphere and causing the even bigger weather event than you would have otherwise
seen.»
A
regional climate model study examines the influence of
warm ocean surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic in summer to
see what an increase of a few degrees Celsius does to rainfall.
Steven Mosher, now that the new and improved HADCRUT4 with C&W kriging is available on Climate Explorer you can «
see» just how
regional «Global
Warming» really is.
To point out just a couple of things: — oceans
warming slower (or cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to
warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I
see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water
warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years land temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands»
warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part in temperature trends for some
regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters
warming slower than lands, and because lands» temperatures are often measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters» temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities temperature trends actually show an increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for
regional effects); but I would not run out a small
warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very
warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
Though there can be significant differences in
regional surface impacts between one SSW event and another, the typical pattern includes changes in sea level pressure resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) / Arctic Oscillation (AO), (representing a southward shift in the Atlantic storm track), wetter than average conditions for much of Europe, cold air outbreaks throughout the mid-latitudes, and
warmer than average conditions in eastern Canada and subtropical Asia (
see figure below, left panel).
A new paper Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly (Mann et al 2009)(
see here for press release) addresses this question, focusing on
regional temperature change during the Medieval
Warm Period and Little Ice Age.
«With continued global
warming, we're going to
see more and more of these unprecedented
regional conditions, and with them will come more and more costs to humans and the things they value.
That we tend to
see much more discussion about global
warming is I think because of the limitations of the climate models when they go to more
regional and seasonal predictions and refinements of max versus min temperature trends.
They found that global temperatures fluctuated in specific
regional patterns but that all regions except Antarctica
saw a long - term cooling trend followed by significant
warming in the past 30 years.
In contrast, the consensus view among paleoclimatologists is that the Medieval
Warming Period was a
regional phenomenon, that the worldwide nature of the Little Ice Age is open to question and that the late 20th century
saw the most extreme global average temperatures.
«What we're
seeing is stark evidence that the gradual temperature increase is not the important story related to climate change; it's the rapid
regional changes and increased frequency of extreme weather that global
warming is causing.
Smaller areas of relatively faster
regional warming are also
seen over South America, southern Africa and Australia.