And some of these services are, at least anecdotally,
seeing flatter yields.
Not exact matches
So right now the situation that we're
seeing is a
flatter curve, yeah but the Fed funds rate is in the 160s, [10 - year
yield] in the 270s.
«Any concerns that we may have expressed before about an overly
flat yield curve, I'd put off to the side until we
see things play out.»
While credit spreads and leading indicators appear to be fairly well behaved, many have noted the sinister looking shape of the
yield curve, near its
flattest level since before the global financial crisis (
see the chart below).
BMO strategists say higher oil prices should ultimately lead to a
flatter yield curve, not a steeper curve as
seen last week
To some extent, stock market action also implies expectations for slower economic growth, though interest rate signals, such as a
flat yield curve, are more suggestive of slow growth than stock market action is, and we've yet to
see a substantial widening of credit spreads that would suggest imminent recession.
The Dollar Spot Index was
flat at 91.54 at the time of writing, 10 - year Treasury
yields sitting at 2.96 % ahead of today's open and the release of today's figures that could
see yields bounce back to 3 % this afternoon.
Hence, a
flat yield curve can be
seen as a yardstick of ineffective policy normalization focusing on the «wrong part of the term structure.»
When you start to
see the
yield curve flatten or even invert, meaning short - term rates become equal to or higher than long - term rates, and the line either becomes
flat or sloped lower from left to right, then that usually signals trouble ahead in terms of a recession and lower market prices.
Almost every segment of the
yield curve is
flatter now than at any time over the past 10 - year period (
see Exhibit 2).
The two - year
yield has increased 115 bps (
see Exhibit 1), however the long end of the curve has fallen, producing a much
flatter yield curve.
However, up to this point of Q3 2014, high -
yielding tobacco bonds have remained
flat, at 0.03 % (
see Exhibit 2).
A short term result of the Fed's continuing increase in the Fed funds rate is a
flatter yield curve as
seen in the chart of the spread between the 10 - year and two - year treasury notes.
Flat Yield Curve - This curve indicates the
yields of bonds with different maturities are relatively constant, and is
seen when interest rates are expected to decline moderately but offset by positive term premium.
The result of this was a
flatter yield curve for most of June and can be
seen in Exhibit 2 as the comparison between the yellow and navy
yield curves.
The first week of August 2015
saw the
yield - to - worst of the S&P / BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index close almost
flat, after moving 12 bps higher on the release of stronger Factory Orders and ADP Employment numbers.