Not exact matches
Kevin Trenbeth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said the study didn't account for changes in
sea surface temperatures, which are the main drivers of changes in the position of the rain belts (as is
seen during an El Nino event, when Pacific
warming pushes the subtropical jet over the Western U.S. southward).
With higher levels of carbon dioxide and higher average temperatures, the oceans»
surface waters
warm and
sea ice disappears, and the marine world will
see increased stratification, intense nutrient trapping in the deep Southern Ocean (also known as the Antarctic Ocean) and nutrition starvation in the other oceans.
The reason could be linked to rising
sea surface temperatures — fueled in part by global
warming — as
seen in ocean buoy data collected along the U.S. coast.
If you download 1998 - 2009 cloud cover here, and
sea surface temperatures here, you can
see that, except for a cloud band from ~ 0 to 10 degrees N, cloudiness is generally less where SST is
warmer, though there are lots of details and spatial variation that lessen the correlation.
But this is in a period that the Bureau has predicted is likely, based on statistical analysis of historical data and current
sea surface conditions, to be
warmer than the historical average (
see here.
Also, if you look at Table T2 in this paper, you will
see that ocean
sea surface heat storage 0 - 700m from 1955 - 2003 (in W / m2) is always higher at northern latitudes than the corresponding southern latitudes in every case, even with the extensive Southern Ocean
warming as noted by Gavin responding to # 18.
The AARI data include drifting stations and ice information, although not the majority (my fault to
see that as «main»), that means that the difference between only land based and total is in
warmer sea surface temperatures.
Its hard to
see how the oceans can be
warming dramatically due to anthropogenic causes if the
sea surface temperature (controlled for ENSO, ENSO afteraffects etc) is actually relatively stable.
This
warming can be
seen in measurements of troposphere temperatures measured by weather balloons and satellites, in measurements of ocean heat content,
sea surface temperature (measured in situ and by satellites), air temperatures over the ocean, air temperature over land.
The record
warm sea surface and atmosphere held a never before
seen excess of water vapor and moisture in suspension — primarily over the Equatorial Ocean zones.
One of the top three strongest events on record, this particular
warming of
sea surfaces in the Pacific coincided with never before
seen global heat as atmospheric CO2 levels spiked to above 405 parts per million on some days during February and March.
To
see if that could be the case, Hartmann used climate models, where he could plug in the
warm sea surface temperatures and
see if the East - West pattern followed.
Anthropogenic
warming in the post — war period was some 0.4 degrees K. 1944 and 1998 being the peaks of 2 successive 20 to 30 year
warm Pacific Ocean regimes — as
seen in both
sea surface and
surface temperature records.
As
seen in Figure 2, a cool phase PDO is associated with cool
sea surface temperatures along the Pacific coast of North America, but the center of the North Pacific ocean is still quite
warm.
''... worked with two sediment cores they extracted from the seabed of the eastern Norwegian
Sea, developing a 1000 - year proxy temperature record «based on measurements of δ18O in Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, a planktonic foraminifer that calcifies at relatively shallow depths within the Atlantic waters of the eastern Norwegian
Sea during late summer,» which they compared with the temporal histories of various proxies of concomitant solar activity... This work revealed, as the seven scientists describe it, that «the lowest isotope values (highest temperatures) of the last millennium are
seen ~ 1100 - 1300 A.D., during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and again after ~ 1950 A.D.» In between these two
warm intervals, of course, were the colder temperatures of the Little Ice Age, when oscillatory thermal minima occurred at the times of the Dalton, Maunder, Sporer and Wolf solar minima, such that the δ18O proxy record of near -
surface water temperature was found to be «robustly and near - synchronously correlated with various proxies of solar variability spanning the last millennium,» with decade - to century - scale temperature variability of 1 to 2 °C magnitude.»
I hypothesise that natural variations can account for the vast majority of the
warming seen within the bounds of certainty in the
surface and
sea temperature records in the industrial era.
Though there can be significant differences in regional
surface impacts between one SSW event and another, the typical pattern includes changes in
sea level pressure resembling the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) / Arctic Oscillation (AO), (representing a southward shift in the Atlantic storm track), wetter than average conditions for much of Europe, cold air outbreaks throughout the mid-latitudes, and
warmer than average conditions in eastern Canada and subtropical Asia (
see figure below, left panel).
However, the
sea surface temperatures for the Rest - of - the - World (that's not the East Pacific) has
warmed so we have to detrend it for a comparison to the NINO3.4 data: As we can
see, the Rest - of - the - World data
warms during the El Niño events of 1986/87/88 and 1997/98 but it does not cool proportionally during the La Niña events that trailed them.
At the same time, they point towards below normal ice extent in the Barents / Kara
Sea, also compared to the record minimum in 2007, which they
see coupled to oceanic processes and promoting further
warming of
surface waters in the region.
For example over the past winter the Arctic ice cap did
see unusually
warm surface temperatures, yet Arctic
sea ice did not shrink as some would intuitively expect it to do.
The observed patterns of
surface warming, temperature changes through the atmosphere, increases in ocean heat content, increases in atmospheric moisture,
sea level rise, and increased melting of land and
sea ice also match the patterns scientists expect to
see due to rising levels of CO2 and other human - induced changes (
see Question 5).
During that time the thermometer series measure the narrow belt of
warming at the
sea and land
surface, but the satellites do not
see it until atmospheric circulation starts moving it toward the poles.
Such oscillations might also alter hurricane patterns, but the main driver of hurricanes is
warm sea surface temperatures > 27C (we can all agree on that, I hope); atmospheric conditions also need to be conducive (
see the above comment on this year's rip - snorting season).
(In effect, just as you will
see people plot the raw
sea surface temperature data and incorrectly attribute all the change in the region to «AMO», you've tracked the raw
surface temperature change, and others are incorrectly attributing the entire effect to «global
warming».)
There was so much
warm water released by the 1997/98 El Niño that the
sea surface temperatures for the entire East Pacific Ocean (from pole to pole or the coordinates of 90S - 90N, 180 - 80W) temporarily
warmed 0.5 to 0.6 deg C.
See Figure 4.
Ocean Heat Content data and satellite - era
sea surface temperature data also indicate the oceans
warmed naturally, but you have to understand that ENSO works as a recharge - discharge oscillator (with La Niña as the recharge mode and El Niño as the discharge mode) to
see Mother Nature's handiwork.