Fast forward 25 years, and Trenberth still
sees changes in ocean temperature as key to understanding the ups and downs of global climate.
Not exact matches
Rising
temperatures and
ocean acidifi cation drive
changes in phytoplankton communities [Also
see Reports by McMahon et al. and Rivero - Calle et al..]
«The range of pH and
temperature that some organisms experience on a daily basis exceeds the
changes we expect to
see in the global
ocean by the end of the century,» notes Rivest, an assistant professor at VIMS.
Whether that could happen again
in 2015 remains to be
seen, though the
ocean has a strong
temperature memory and doesn't respond to
changes very quickly.
It's the
ocean «These small global
temperature increases of the last 25 years and over the last century are likely natural
changes that the globe has
seen many times
in the past.
In addition, some studies also use the estimated ocean heat uptake since 1955 based on Levitus et al. (2000, 2005)(Chapter 5), and temperature changes in the free atmosphere (Chapter 3; see also Table 9.3
In addition, some studies also use the estimated
ocean heat uptake since 1955 based on Levitus et al. (2000, 2005)(Chapter 5), and
temperature changes in the free atmosphere (Chapter 3; see also Table 9.3
in the free atmosphere (Chapter 3;
see also Table 9.3).
[Response: You fail to
see that
ocean temperatures, satellite measurements, glacier melting, Arctic ice retreat,
changes in phenology are all consistent with a warming planet.
I particularly enjoyed the slides that, when combined (1) provided an overview of hotter and cooler CO2 molecules as it relates to how they are
seen from outer space and from profile — because this will make it easier for me to explain this process to others; (2) walked through the volcanic and solar activity vs assigning importance to CO2
changes — because this another way to help make it clearer, too, but
in another way; (3) discussed CO2 induced warming and
ocean rise vs different choices we might make — because this helps point out why every day's delay matters; and (4) showed Figure 1 from William Nordhaus» «Strategies for Control of Carbon Dioxide» and then super-imposed upon that the global mean
temperature in colors showing pre-paper and post-paper periods — because this helps to show just how far back it was possible to make reasoned projections without the aid of a more nuanced and modern understanding.
I also used my implementation to break up a quick land response from a slow
ocean response to
see if the
change in sign of the derived
temperature derivative coming at a place where it is not intersecting the instantaneous
temperature might be explained by the derived
temperature being an average.
We have only begun to
see the
change in temperature and climate caused by the amount of CO2 that we have already added to the atmosphere (+38 %), and it will continue to
change until the
ocean - atmosphere climate system fully responds to that addition.
McIntyre has a new post where he tries to rescue the previous «projections» — but he confuses the
changes in HadSST (
ocean temperatures, which he is plotting) and the
changes in HadCRUT3 (the global surface air
temperature anomaly) which is what his projection was for (as can be
seen in the figures
in the main post).
I clearly
see that the
change in surface
temperature and TOA radiative forcing simulated by the model depends upon the model complexity, for example, how the
ocean circulations are represented.
A new study released Friday
in the journal Science Advances helps clear up a bit of the mystery, by showing that man - made climate
change is responsible for most of the
change seen in ocean surface
temperatures near the equator across Asia, which
in turn affect regional rainfall patterns including the Indian monsoon.
Here's a clue — a tendency toward a more frequent La Nina state, driven specifically by increasing GH gas concentrations (and similar to conditions
in the mid-Pliocene), may provide some modulation of tropospheric
temperature spikes, but that energy will be advected somewhere (the idea of homogenous dispersion throughout the
ocean is absurd), and that somewhere is exactly where we are
seeing the biggest
changes in the climate right now — the Arctic.
Pershing said that
ocean temperatures in the Gulf may start to level off, but factoring
in the rate of current carbon emissions, the Gulf of Maine could
see a 5 to 7 degree
change over the next 100 years.
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a naturally occurring pattern of sea surface
temperature change that is
seen in the North Atlantic
Ocean on decadal timescales and affects weather and climate.
WASHINGTON — A sobering new report warns that the
oceans face a «fundamental and irreversible ecological transformation» not
seen in millions of years as greenhouse gases and climate
change already have affected
temperature, acidity, sea and oxygen levels, the food chain and possibly major currents that could alter global weather.
Recent
changes in Pacific
Ocean temperatures have been comparable to the decline
seen at the end of the 1998 El Niño, although
temperatures remain warmer than at the end of the most recent El Niño
in 2010.
To point out just a couple of things: —
oceans warming slower (or cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to warm or to cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I
see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that
oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase
change inside
oceans, so no latent heat) or
oceans begin to release heat but
in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that
in last years land
temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while
oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but,
in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands» warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part
in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters warming slower than lands, and because lands»
temperatures are often measured
in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity
in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters»
temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities
temperature trends actually show an increase
in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live
in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI
in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but,
in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least
in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough
in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
This time period is too short to signify a
change in the warming trend, as climate trends are measured over periods of decades, not years.12, 29,30,31,32 Such decade - long slowdowns or even reversals
in trend have occurred before
in the global instrumental record (for example, 1900 - 1910 and 1940 - 1950;
see Figure 2.2), including three decade - long periods since 1970, each followed by a sharp
temperature rise.33 Nonetheless, satellite and
ocean observations indicate that the Earth - atmosphere climate system has continued to gain heat energy.34
Thus what you
see as wiggles
in the increase per year is the direct result of
temperature changes in ocean surface and vegetation (for the latter, precipitation also plays a role).
This
changes the
ocean temperature profile
in the ways
seen.
If we regress the annual rate of CO2
change against
temperature, we are likely to
see a significant short term
temperature effect as warming reduces the solubility of CO2
in the surface
ocean layers (with effects on terrestrial sinks as well).
Uncertainty
in these projections due to potential future climate
change effects on the
ocean carbon cycle (mainly through
changes in temperature,
ocean stratification and marine biological production and re-mineralization;
see Box 7.3) are small compared to the direct effect of rising atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic emissions.
The observed patterns of surface warming,
temperature changes through the atmosphere, increases
in ocean heat content, increases
in atmospheric moisture, sea level rise, and increased melting of land and sea ice also match the patterns scientists expect to
see due to rising levels of CO2 and other human - induced
changes (
see Question 5).
The models (and there are many) have numerous common behaviours — they all cool following a big volcanic eruption, like that at Mount Pinatubo
in 1991; they all warm as levels of greenhouse gases are increased; they show the same relationships connecting water vapour and
temperature that we
see in observations; and they can quantify how the giant lakes left over from the Ice Age may have caused a rapid cooling across the North Atlantic as they drained and
changed ocean circulation patterns.