Sentences with phrase «sensitivity warming forecasts»

I want to discuss the recent Kaufman study which purports to reconcile flat temperatures over the last 10 - 12 years with high - sensitivity warming forecasts.

Not exact matches

Another way to estimate climate sensitivity from both models AND observations is to calculate the ratio of observed warming to forecast warming... then multiply that by the ECS value used in the model.

All the rest of the sensitivity between this 1C and 3C or 5C or whatever the forecast is comes from feedbacks (e.g. hotter weather melts ice, which causes less sunlight to be reflected, which warms the world more).

How much anthropogenic warming or climate sensitivity is required to so forecast / hindcast?

Now I know that the CAGW hypothesis tells us that CO2 is the primary climate «control knob» with a mean 2xCO2 climate sensitivity of 3.2 C. And, using this hypothesis, IPCC climate models have calculated that it should be warming by 0.2 C per decade (Hansen's 1988 forecast even called for 0.32 C warming per decade).

Again, there almost certainly is a warming trend since 1850, and some of that trend is probably due to manmade CO2, but sensitivities in most forecasts that get attention in the media are way too high.

If the sensitivity is greater than 3 deg, how much warming might we have expected to have had since the last IPCC forecasts in 2000?