«Early
sharp action moved us off 3 but I expect the flood of public money to push this game back to 3 on Sunday,» reports Bowmans.
Not exact matches
The market's price
action since late January hasn't been inspiring, and with bond yields up, commodity prices higher and
sharp price
moves among equities, it might be time to break out the bear suit.
That sort of
action can cause
sharp, discontinuous price
moves.
Based on this lack of line movement, it appears that oddsmakers are worried about taking
sharp action on the Bears if they
move the spread to 7.
During the regular season, sportsbooks almost always adjust their lines based on the
action of their
sharpest bettors, and they won't
move the number based on public money unless there's a marquee matchup with one - sided public betting and limited
sharp action on the other side.
If we see some more real
sharp action on Seattle, we could see that line
move to the key number of three.
Sportsbooks are obviously hesitant to
move their lines off key numbers since they will often get hammered with
sharp action if they
move.
Last week, early
sharp action on the Houston / Seattle over caused the line to
move from 43 to 46.
We expect the public
action to
move this line to -10, -10.5, and then look for
Sharp action to beat it back to -9.5.
There hasn't been much
sharp action to convincingly
move the line either, as it has bounced between DAL -1 and KC -1 over the past few days.
This weekend's big matchup is Ohio State hosting Penn State, and although we've seen public
action on the Nittany Lions, the
sharp line
moves have come in on the Buckeyes.
With only 44 % of bettors backing the South Dakota State, it's clear that the
move is triggered by
sharp action.
Bowmans reported taking a lot of early Seattle «
Sharp»
action at -8.5 and -9, causing them to
move to -9.5 -115 on Thursday.
The
sharp action rating shown above is based on the number of Steam and Reverse - Line
Moves (RLM) triggered by our Bet Signals data.
Despite heavy public
action on the Gators,
sharper money
moved LSU all the way from +6.5 to -2 by game time.
Betting market: Despite the
move from -7 to -8.5, there's not much to talk about in terms of
sharp or public
action.
In other words, injuries were responsible for the initial 1 - point line
move and
sharp action was responsible for the subsequent 1.5 - point
move.
If there's no buyback from
sharp bettors, oddsmakers will continue to
move the line to encourage
action on the underdog.
The screenshot below, taken from our Sportsbook Insider bet activity dashboard, summarizes how this line has
moved since opening, including how
sharp action at +1 has helped
move the line to the current number.
Even though most of the money was taking Wake Forest, sportsbooks
moved against the money due to
sharp action.
The Bears - Bucs matchup generally wouldn't catch someone's eye, but this game has certainly seen some
sharp action that has caused the line to
move.
This line
moved as a result of
sharp action.
A Steam
Move is a sudden, drastic change in line movement across the entire marketplace, caused by an overload of
sharp action.
76 % of Cardinals / Seahawks Under (38): This total has already dropped from 41 to 38 thanks to lopsided
action and a steam
move triggered by the
sharp offshore book Pinnacle.
Since those books accept higher limits, they attract more professional
action and therefore have
sharper lines and
moves.
During those two months we have observed some monumental line
moves due to injuries,
sharp action or simply
moving on air to adjust to the new market consensus.
Don't be surprised if books are hesitant to
move off three and instead defer to adjusting the vig until a wave of
sharp action forces their hand.
This post will remain «live» through kickoff of the College Football Playoff Championship Game on January 12th between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks and will be constantly updated to reflect major line
moves, public betting trends,
sharp money indicators (
action from professional bettors and / or syndicates), injury news and relevant betting analysis, so please check back often.
This has signaled some
sharp action on the Seahawks and Ed Salmons from LV Superbook in Las Vegas has also recently noted that the spread would
move to a pick»em at his sportsbook before
moving NE to -1.5.
It will be constantly updated to reflect major line
moves, public betting trends,
sharp money indicators (
action from professional bettors and / or syndicates), injury news and any other relevant betting analysis so please check back often.
So far, spread bets are split down the middle for the game, but the Bills have
moved from -7.5 to -9 thanks to some early
sharp action.
With
sharp bettors hammering the favorite, sportsbooks have
moved their spread across the key number of «4» in order to encourage
action on Seattle.
In other words, sportsbooks almost always adjust their lines based on the
action of their
sharpest bettors, and they won't
move the number based on public money unless there's a marquee matchup with one - sided public betting and limited
sharp action on the other side.
When the simple analysis of the line
moving against the public (
sharp money), lines up with this idea of satisfying a +7.5 layoff, by an 8 - 9 point spread, and at the same time not having to pay out the
action at +9.5... (a form of a middle)...
Monday's betting roundup includes a Falcons - Bucs guide, a key Sugar Bowl line
move and a random college basketball
sharp action alert.
Our Bet Signals (
sharp money indicators) have triggered three reverse - line
moves on the «under», summarizing how
sharp money has already driven this line in the opposite direction of one - sided betting
action.
Our newest feature, the
Sharp Action Report, summarizes our Steam and Reverse Line move data to quickly illustrate which teams are taking the most money from sharp bet
Sharp Action Report, summarizes our Steam and Reverse Line
move data to quickly illustrate which teams are taking the most money from
sharp bet
sharp bettors.
Don't forget to check back here up until game time for insight into last - minute
sharp action, significant line
moves and any other betting market info.
Check back here up until game time for insight into last - minute
sharp action, significant line
moves and any other betting market info.
The overload of
sharp action has
moved Harper and Company from -104 to -121.
Don't forget to check back here up until tip for insight into last - minute
sharp action, significant line
moves and any other betting market info.
Be sure to check back here up until game time for insight into last - minute
sharp action, significant line
moves and any other betting market info.
Normally, 57 % of bets won't
move a line 20 cents, so we know
sharp action caused this line movement.
Two Reverse Line
Moves and one Steam
Move were also triggered on the under earlier this week, confirming that
sharp action is responsible for this line movement.
The Pro membership also gives you a fully customizable live odds page with lines from 50 + books, the number of bets on every game, best bet picks, steam and reverse line
moves,
Sharp Action Report, weather, injuries, line watcher, line predictor and more.
Since then, West Virginia at Baylor, the game that's currently receiving the highest number of bets on the board, has also attracted
sharp action,
moving the line.
Sports Insights» Bet Signals triggered a Steam
Move at Pinnacle, a sportsbook that accepts high - limit professional
action, revealing that
sharp money is responsible for the early line movement in this game.
As we are attempting to attract balanced
action, the
sharps can sometimes even get two maximum limit bets on their chosen team before our line
moves enough to discourage them.
However line
moves are more a result of
sharp and whale
action that a volume of small bets.
It is sometimes demonstrated as two
sharp moves — up and release out — but it is better with coordinated breath and a smooth rocking
action.