That reverse line movement is an excellent indicator that
sharp bettors like home «dog in this AFC North rivalry.
This would indicate that
sharp bettors like the Broncos as a home underdog.
There has actually been a highly profitable steam move triggered on Golden State -7.5, which shows that
sharp bettors like the favorite this evening.
As you can see from the line chart, there have been three steam moves triggered on the Clippers which confirms that
sharp bettors like the chalk in this matchup.
Additionally, a number of betting systems have been triggered on Kansas City, including a Smart Money Play from Sportsbook.com (7 - 3, +3.55 units), providing further evidence that
sharp bettors like the home dog in this contest.
In fact, it's far more likely that books would adjust their line from Warriors -10 to -9.5 since they already know
sharp bettors like Sacramento.
It's clear that
sharper bettors like Indiana at +7 so if you can grab them at those odds, that's the bet to make right now.
Not exact matches
Each matchup is different, and
bettors need to pay attention to factors
like public betting trends and
sharp money indicators
like steam moves and / or reverse line movement.
Offshore sportsbooks
like CRIS, Pinnacle, BetOnline, The Greek and 5Dimes often set the market with early openers and welcome the biggest bets from
sharp bettors.
On the other hand, square books
like Bovada and Sportsbook have low limits and aren't going to be taking any large bets from the world's
sharpest bettors.
Even though the public doesn't
like the Cowboys» chances,
sharp bettors jumped on the opportunity to get Dallas +3.5, as we've tracked three bet signals on them and none on Philly.
Spreading your money across multiple winning models (
like diversifying an investment portfolio) helps safeguard against one or two that happen to lose, which is entirely possible for even the
sharpest sports
bettors.
This looks
like the quintessential example of «Sharps vs. Squares» with casual
bettors taking Arkansas and
sharp bettors taking Auburn.
It isn't often that public and
sharper bettors are both on an underdog
like this during the regular season, but trendy dogs do seem to pop up more often in the NCAA Tournament.
That means in addition to targeting heavily bet games with one - sided public betting, contrarian
bettors need to make sure there have been no
sharp money indicators (
like steam moves and / or reverse line movement) on their opponent.
By utilizing
sharp money indicators
like reverse line movement, contrarian
bettors have been able to maximize their profits.
We've discussed at length how square
bettors typically overvalue ranked teams, how
bettors can diagnose
sharp money indicators
like reverse line movement, and how good rushing teams are typically undervalued in low - scoring games.
We have found that following market - setting sportsbooks
like CRIS and Pinnacle, which take the highest limits and therefore attract the
sharpest bettors, historically produce the most profits.
By examining historical trends, public betting trends and
sharp money indicators (
like steam and reverse line movement), I was able to pinpoint which team was offering contrarian value to
bettors.
Since books
like CRIS, Pinnacle and Heritage offer the highest limits; they attract the
sharpest bettors and therefore provide the
sharpest lines.
This looks
like the quintessential example of «Sharps vs. Squares» with casual
bettors taking Arkansas and
sharp bettors taking LSU.
This is one of the major reasons that we suggest
bettors have accounts at multiple sportsbooks: one
sharp (
like CRIS or The Greek), one square (
like Bovada or Sports Interaction) and one reduced juice (
like Pinnacle or 5Dimes).
Although
bettors are favoring Cleveland at square sportsbooks (i.e. Sportsbook.com, SIA and BetUS), the public is favoring Golden State at
sharper sportsbooks
like BetDSI and 5Dimes.
This season there have only been three teams (Phillies, Mets, and Giants) that have been less profitable for
bettors, but
sharp bettors definitely
like a side in tonight's showdown.
Taking a team
like this late in the season has been a strong bet and apparently,
sharp bettors feel the same way.
This looks
like the quintessential example of «Sharps vs. Squares» with casual
bettors taking Texas Tech and
sharp bettors taking TCU.
Ideally
bettors would have access to three sportsbooks: one
sharp (
like CRIS or the Greek), one square (
like Bovada, SIA or Sportsbook.com) and one reduced juice (
like Pinnacle or 5Dimes).
This information indicates that even though a majority of public
bettors like New Orleans, large wagers from
sharp bettors have been taking Washington.
By looking at historically profitable trends and
sharp money indicators
like steam moves and reverse line movement, we're able to diagnose which games are offering value to
bettors.
Ideally
bettors would have access to three sportsbooks: one
sharp (
like CRIS or the Greek), one square (
like Bovada, SIA or Sportsbook.com)...
Ideally
bettors should have access to three sportsbooks: one
sharp (
like CRIS or the Greek), one square (
like Bovada, SIA or Sportsbook.com) and one reduced juice (
like Pinnacle or 5Dimes).
We frequently see
bettors place more value in cherry - picked stats based on small sample sizes than consistently profitable
sharp money indicators
like reverse line movement.
Knowing which side
sharp money
likes is important, but getting the best number is a huge part of being a profitable sports
bettor.
In fact, this game provides the perfect example of why
bettors should always shop for the best line since many square books (
like BetOnline, Bovada and Sportsbook.com) are offering Golden State -5.5, while
sharper books (
like CRIS and 5Dimes) are currently listing Cleveland +6.
We encourage
bettors to follow
sharp money indicators
like steam moves and reverse line movement.
Despite Spieth getting the majority of dollars for The Masters, it appears that
sharper bettors don't
like his chances as much to win a major this season.
That means
bettors should be paying attention to those
sharper books
like Bookmaker and Pinnacle to see where the market is trending.
You don't want to find yourself betting Alabama -7.5 just because
sharp bettors took Alabama at better odds (
like -3.5 or -4).
We know that it's usually
sharp money responsible for moving a line, but for a massive match
like this, an influx of public
bettors at +250 can really change the odds.
Casual
bettors liked Golden State -9 after winning the opening game of the series, 113 - 92, but the pros took San Antonio, as evidenced by reverse line movement and Steam Move Bet Signals triggered at Pinnacle — a
sharp sportsbook.
They are okay if the public loads up on one side as long as
sharps don't join in because they are able to predict who
bettors will
like for each game, and set the lines accordingly.
However,
sharp bettors have made no secret of how much they
like Minnesota, steaming this number up to -3.5 across the NBA betting market according to Sports Insights» Bet Signals.